Damn, another bad day for me personally once again, especially since i gave in to trying a few NFL parlays earlier. But that's just me being extremely stupid again.
This time for real, starting tommorow, I'm gonna do the smart thing...and tail you exclusively. I said that earlier in this topic, but this time I'm realizing that it doesn't make sense otherwise. Looking at how close the very few wrong picks you have had so far, it's almost surreal how accurate your system is.
Spreadproof, I'm truly appreciating your picks so far, keep up the great work. I....and everyone else, just have to be patient, and just follow your 1 unit per play and .5 unit per parlay system. I'm telling you first, I'm not gonna take a chance doing my own picks, or anyone else's picks in NBA or any other sports, from here on!
This time for real, starting tommorow, I'm gonna do the smart thing...and tail you exclusively. I said that earlier in this topic, but this time I'm realizing that it doesn't make sense otherwise. Looking at how close the very few wrong picks you have had so far, it's almost surreal how accurate your system is.
Spreadproof, I'm truly appreciating your picks so far, keep up the great work. I....and everyone else, just have to be patient, and just follow your 1 unit per play and .5 unit per parlay system. I'm telling you first, I'm not gonna take a chance doing my own picks, or anyone else's picks in NBA or any other sports, from here on!
That was a tough loss, I think I am going to really shun away from Away team plays with over 10 point lines. Don't feel down about this though I am very confident we are going to have some perfect nights this week and plenty of good plays. I sort of figured the teaser would of been the best play tonight, but that is okay. Fool me once is all it takes.
See you tomorrow,
SP
Thread Record: Straights: 5-2 (+2.8 Units), Parlays: 0-2 (-1.5 Units)
See you tomorrow,
SP
Thread Record: Straights: 5-2 (+2.8 Units), Parlays: 0-2 (-1.5 Units)
I thought I would have some plays today, one does pass all my criteria but I decided not to take any more spreads over 10 points as it is just too unpredictable end of game. I will tell you what the plays would be for the action junkies out there but I personally will not be betting anything on them and will not include them in my parlays.
* Orlando -12 take it up to -15 (Unofficial play, just a lean I guess)
Things to consider on this pick even if you are an action junky..
Note these are just trends, they do not mean you should play this game against Orlando. If I had not decided to ignore games with large spreads we would be playing Orlando.
Play Against - Any team (ORLANDO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
Play On - Any team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less.
(62-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*)
* Orlando -12 take it up to -15 (Unofficial play, just a lean I guess)
Things to consider on this pick even if you are an action junky..
Note these are just trends, they do not mean you should play this game against Orlando. If I had not decided to ignore games with large spreads we would be playing Orlando.
Play Against - Any team (ORLANDO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
Play On - Any team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less.
(62-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*)
My thoughts too.. Good call again tonight Spread. I just think if you eliminate all the DD spreads its going to eliminate some of the more dominating teams when they go against average/poor teams. But obviously, you know what you're doing so who am I to say anything?
No problem with him making those "leans" in his system. I think he will still post those games for us to see, they will just be listed as "leans". And if they do end up winning just as much as the regular plays, after the system has more time to show it's results, he'll probably put them as plays again, or maybe have a consistent recommended tease for them.
Either way, it's our choice whether to include them in our plays or parlays. I think, which ever path we choose, should smell success in the long run.
On days with a lot of plays and leans, I might think about not having one single parlay, and instead, splitting spread's recommended units in half for the parlay, and have two separate parlays. One parlay that includes the leans, and one parlay that doesn't. Or I might just have one parlay that teases the leans. OR I just might have spread's recommended parlay. Think I'll just end up choosing the latter of the latter :think2:
PLAYS 12/23/08
1 Unit Each, .5 Unit on a parlay with all the picks under 10 and then another .5 on the parlay with all of them.
Also if you have the ability another 1 unit on a 4 point teaser with all the picks wouldn’t be a bad payday.
Basketball - 502 Atlanta Hawks -11½ -110 for Game ( Max line -12)
Basketball - 503 New Jersey Nets +3 -130 buying 1 for Game (Min Line +2)
Basketball - 506 Cleveland Cavaliers -7 -120 buying ½ for Game (Max Line -10)
Basketball - 508 Charlotte Bobcats -6 -110 for Game (Max Line -12, huge value here)
Basketball - 510 Boston Celtics -13 -110 for Game (Max Line -15)
Basketball - 512 Miami Heat -8 -110 for Game (Max Line -10)
Basketball - 522 San Antonio Spurs -12 -120 buying ½ for Game (Max Line -14)
Basketball - 523 Denver Nuggets +8 -110 for Game (Min Line, +3, huge value here as well)
I know we are almost maxing out a 12 unit aggressive bankroll today, I am expecting another good day. However you may want to scale back just due to the volume of picks, up to you.
I decided to go back to play large home lines after more back testing it seemed like the right way to go. I will post large away lines as leans only until we can prove this thing one way or another.
GL Buds,
Spreadproof
1 Unit Each, .5 Unit on a parlay with all the picks under 10 and then another .5 on the parlay with all of them.
Also if you have the ability another 1 unit on a 4 point teaser with all the picks wouldn’t be a bad payday.
Basketball - 502 Atlanta Hawks -11½ -110 for Game ( Max line -12)
Basketball - 503 New Jersey Nets +3 -130 buying 1 for Game (Min Line +2)
Basketball - 506 Cleveland Cavaliers -7 -120 buying ½ for Game (Max Line -10)
Basketball - 508 Charlotte Bobcats -6 -110 for Game (Max Line -12, huge value here)
Basketball - 510 Boston Celtics -13 -110 for Game (Max Line -15)
Basketball - 512 Miami Heat -8 -110 for Game (Max Line -10)
Basketball - 522 San Antonio Spurs -12 -120 buying ½ for Game (Max Line -14)
Basketball - 523 Denver Nuggets +8 -110 for Game (Min Line, +3, huge value here as well)
I know we are almost maxing out a 12 unit aggressive bankroll today, I am expecting another good day. However you may want to scale back just due to the volume of picks, up to you.
I decided to go back to play large home lines after more back testing it seemed like the right way to go. I will post large away lines as leans only until we can prove this thing one way or another.
GL Buds,
Spreadproof
