Hey spread is there a way you can pick your most confident plays or rate your plays by units? Especially with no write-ups, this many plays with no way of knowing your level of confidence on them just seems too random and lacks money management. Granted you can go 7-3, it is still the NBA. More often than not you will go 5-6 with this many plays, and if the lines moved your way you would've gone 5-8 today.
d'antonirunngun, I was thinking the same thing, my plays are all based on proprietary math systems, but there seems to be no sure correlation between variance and quality of picks. I need to stop and look for a better way to analyze the games. I will come up with something in the next couple of days.
Regards,
SP
Regards,
SP
Five great plays appeared on my radar today. Here we go.
Basketball - 501 Golden State Warriors -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 507 Indiana Pacers +8 -110 for Game
Basketball - 509 New Jersey Nets +13½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 505 Phoenix Suns/Oklahoma City Thunder under 201 -110 for Game
Basketball - 509 New Jersey Nets/Los Angeles Lakers under 208½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 501 Golden State Warriors -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 507 Indiana Pacers +8 -110 for Game
Basketball - 509 New Jersey Nets +13½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 505 Phoenix Suns/Oklahoma City Thunder under 201 -110 for Game
Basketball - 509 New Jersey Nets/Los Angeles Lakers under 208½ -110 for Game
Plays 11/26/08 (YTD +2.5 Units)
Basketball - 701 Milwaukee Bucks +7½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 707 Orlando Magic +5 -110 for Game
Basketball - 715 Indiana Pacers +8 -110 for Game
Basketball - 721 Miami Heat +7½ -110 for Game
Yesterday ended up going 2-3, the Nets were beating the spread by a decent margin at half time and ended up blowing it in the 4th quarter. Two new rules I want to add to enhance your profit, we were able to do this on the Indiana game yesterday. When we are on a dog and they are winning the game straight up at the half. Bet on the favorite second half when you have a box 4 points or larger. I.E. last night we had Indiana Pacers +8 for the game, at the half they were winning by 7 points straight up over Dallas. I bet Dallas 2nd half -6.5 creating a situation where Dallas just had to win the game and if they won it by less than 8 I win both ways. If you lose on this play you lose 10% juice, when you win which should be at least 1/3 you win 2 units instead of 1. It increases profits and provides protection against your original bet, another example is the New Jersey game last night, they were +13.5 for the game. At half time they were down by 2, this left 11.5 points for New Jersey, the lakers were a -7.5 favorite for 2nd half. I bet on the lakers, creating a box where if they lakers win by 6-10 points I win the game both ways. What actually ended up happening is the Lakers crushed New Jersey, instead of taking a full loss on the game I just lost juice. If you are at all able, box your bookie in at the half when we are on dogs. Make sure you always have at least a 4 point cushion when doing this. My personal result doing this yesterday turned a 2-3 day into a 4-3 day.
Basketball - 701 Milwaukee Bucks +7½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 707 Orlando Magic +5 -110 for Game
Basketball - 715 Indiana Pacers +8 -110 for Game
Basketball - 721 Miami Heat +7½ -110 for Game
Yesterday ended up going 2-3, the Nets were beating the spread by a decent margin at half time and ended up blowing it in the 4th quarter. Two new rules I want to add to enhance your profit, we were able to do this on the Indiana game yesterday. When we are on a dog and they are winning the game straight up at the half. Bet on the favorite second half when you have a box 4 points or larger. I.E. last night we had Indiana Pacers +8 for the game, at the half they were winning by 7 points straight up over Dallas. I bet Dallas 2nd half -6.5 creating a situation where Dallas just had to win the game and if they won it by less than 8 I win both ways. If you lose on this play you lose 10% juice, when you win which should be at least 1/3 you win 2 units instead of 1. It increases profits and provides protection against your original bet, another example is the New Jersey game last night, they were +13.5 for the game. At half time they were down by 2, this left 11.5 points for New Jersey, the lakers were a -7.5 favorite for 2nd half. I bet on the lakers, creating a box where if they lakers win by 6-10 points I win the game both ways. What actually ended up happening is the Lakers crushed New Jersey, instead of taking a full loss on the game I just lost juice. If you are at all able, box your bookie in at the half when we are on dogs. Make sure you always have at least a 4 point cushion when doing this. My personal result doing this yesterday turned a 2-3 day into a 4-3 day.
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Happy Thanksgiving,
No official plays today but I do have a lean on the under in Orlando / Washington, it did not pass all my tests so it is not an official play. One reason it may be good is Turkey contains a chemical that causes people to get sleepy, we may have a lot of tired NBA Ballers on the court tonight.
11/26 Went well 4-2 (+1.8 units) if you were playing the half time rules I established you went 5-3, it almost caused it to go 6-2 but a late game Indiana rally crushed that.
New YTD Record +4.3 Units, all new picks will be selective and carefully chosen, the main goal of never paying the book in a week is going to be priority number 1.
It is generally not smart to box every game but if we would have done that yesterday we would of added 2 more wins. It would of been 7-3. That would of included boxing in the under for a 2nd half over 100, leaving only 2 points to win both ways and boxing the milwaukee game with 3 points. Both came in but normally it is not a good idea to box games so tightly. If you are paying 5% juice on all your bets it would be smart.
Good Luck,
Spreadproof
No official plays today but I do have a lean on the under in Orlando / Washington, it did not pass all my tests so it is not an official play. One reason it may be good is Turkey contains a chemical that causes people to get sleepy, we may have a lot of tired NBA Ballers on the court tonight.
11/26 Went well 4-2 (+1.8 units) if you were playing the half time rules I established you went 5-3, it almost caused it to go 6-2 but a late game Indiana rally crushed that.
New YTD Record +4.3 Units, all new picks will be selective and carefully chosen, the main goal of never paying the book in a week is going to be priority number 1.
It is generally not smart to box every game but if we would have done that yesterday we would of added 2 more wins. It would of been 7-3. That would of included boxing in the under for a 2nd half over 100, leaving only 2 points to win both ways and boxing the milwaukee game with 3 points. Both came in but normally it is not a good idea to box games so tightly. If you are paying 5% juice on all your bets it would be smart.
Good Luck,
Spreadproof
Plays 12/16/08 (YTD +1.65 Units)
4 Picks 1 Unit Each
Basketball - 701 Chicago Bulls -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 703 New Orleans Hornets -6½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 705 Los Angeles Clippers -4½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 707 Denver Nuggets +3 -110 for Game
Last night sucked 0-2, I am feeling a strong come back tonight.
4 Picks 1 Unit Each
Basketball - 701 Chicago Bulls -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 703 New Orleans Hornets -6½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 705 Los Angeles Clippers -4½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 707 Denver Nuggets +3 -110 for Game
Last night sucked 0-2, I am feeling a strong come back tonight.
12/17/08 (YTD +1.45 Units)
Lost Juice last night going 2-2, all games were looking good first half going 4-0. I have decided to go back to high volume of plays as I was talked out of it early on and have been tracking the record on my own. I would be 109-54 Right now if I had been doing what I planned. From now on a lot of plays all for the same 1 unit.
Basketball - 503 Boston Celtics -3½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 507 Dallas Mavericks -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 510 New Jersey Nets +2½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 512 Detroit Pistons -10 -110 for Game
Basketball - 516 Chicago Bulls -3 -110 for Game
Basketball - 518 New Orleans Hornets -2 -110 for Game
Lost Juice last night going 2-2, all games were looking good first half going 4-0. I have decided to go back to high volume of plays as I was talked out of it early on and have been tracking the record on my own. I would be 109-54 Right now if I had been doing what I planned. From now on a lot of plays all for the same 1 unit.
Basketball - 503 Boston Celtics -3½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 507 Dallas Mavericks -2 -110 for Game
Basketball - 510 New Jersey Nets +2½ -110 for Game
Basketball - 512 Detroit Pistons -10 -110 for Game
Basketball - 516 Chicago Bulls -3 -110 for Game
Basketball - 518 New Orleans Hornets -2 -110 for Game
Good luck spread....high volume is one of the easiest ways to beat the man in my opinion.
I love Boston...great line for that game. Just some words IMO on Detroit...since I'm done getting burned by them. Det should win, but Was has really narrowed their points per game to loosing by 6-8.
Was has scored an average on 98 pts in the last five games to the Pistons 96.
I only mention because, being from Detroit and wanting the Pistons to play well, they will burn you (me) in the end. GL with the plays. :toast:
