it has always been my experience that weeks 1-3 are best for the player. thats not a bad thing for the book though b/c the player gets big balls and thinks they are great and raise their bets and give it all back by week 5. i have always figured it is because it is hard for the books to make a good number early in the season. there is no history to go on with so many player changes. anyway i am sure that this weekend and here on out things will swing in the books favor
Jimmyk you wanted the #s from last year I only have the #s from Sunday plays you will have to look up Monday and Thursday.
96-128 Favorites/dogs
Per week- obviously it depends on closing line used but this is what I have
5-9
4-11
6-6
5-8
6-6
4-9
8-5
4-9
3-10
5-7
9-6
5-10
5-7
7-5
9-6
7-5
4-9
96-128 Favorites/dogs
Per week- obviously it depends on closing line used but this is what I have
5-9
4-11
6-6
5-8
6-6
4-9
8-5
4-9
3-10
5-7
9-6
5-10
5-7
7-5
9-6
7-5
4-9
FOUR team and ABOVE parlays and teasers are all gravy for sportsbooks. The 15% and above hold on these wager literally save many books!!! This is very true when I worked in Vegas. You could lose 1-5% on straight bets but recoup it all and MUCH more on these types of wagers. Next time your in Vegas, check the counters and look at all those parlay and teaser cards there. Some joints offer 5-10 variations of these cards....ties win, free half-point, super teaser, etc., etc. With the way a vast majority of bookmakers book these days, they need these cards to save their *sses!! Believe me!
jdog- Please understand that it is completely different having the favorites cover everyweek as compared to the underdogs covering everyweek. MUCH EASIER FOR THE DOGS TO COVER ON WEEKLY BASIS AS COMPARED TO THE FAVORITES. IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE FAVS WILL HAVE MORE WINNING WEEKSBY A LARGE MARGIN THAN THE DOGS BY YEARS END. There are 3-5 main reasons for this. Good luck
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jwunderdog:
Don't get me wrong I still believe in regression to the mean. Last year was very unusual, but the unusual can cost you a lot sometimes.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Only if your a FAV player. Trust the underdogs......they are powerful.
Don't get me wrong I still believe in regression to the mean. Last year was very unusual, but the unusual can cost you a lot sometimes.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Only if your a FAV player. Trust the underdogs......they are powerful.
This article began just talking about Vegas books. Vegas books always tilt heavily towards the favorites, that is the downside of chasing off your sharp business. Back when Vegas was more into the business and had plenty of sharps and their beards roaming the town, they accepted the smart money because it offset their overwhelming tourist business that will always be on the chalk and having the sharps around keep the books fairly balanced. Now they have nothing to prevent themselves from bad weekends and they have no one to blame but themselves for it. On a bright note, they have all the resources in the world and after a few bad weekends no one ever talks about how bad football results are going to drive them out of business. Believe me Vegas might be crappy in general compared to offshore, but it still offers a lot of value in football season as long as you liberally play the dogs. Go out on Friday night around Downtown books where you get all the different numbers and you will see at least on half your plays you will find a number that beats your best offer offshore.
