<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="OneNote.File"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft OneNote 12"> Sun Belt Predictions
July 27, 2009
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Did you know the Sun Belt Conference has posted a 4-2 (67%) record against the spread in bowl games the last three years?
Were you impressed with Troy’s success against top-tier programs Ohio State (10-28) and LSU (40-31) in 2008? Sure, the Trojans lost both games but it took sound efforts from the Buckeyes and Tigers to avoid home upsets.
Are you aware that Arkansas State defeated Texas A&M 18-14 last year in College Station and two years prior almost stunned Texas (21-13) in Austin?
We forgot to mention Middle Tennessee’s 24-14 victory over Maryland last season or Louisiana-Monroe’s 21-14 shocker over Alabama in 2007 in Nick Saban’s first year.
Even though these highlights don’t define the Sun Belt Conference as a whole, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the nine-team group, especially from a gambling point of view. The lack of exposure may hurt these mid-major squads with their goals but it’s definitely helped gamblers at the counter, especially the past few years.
With that being said, we polled the Editorial staff at VegasInsider.com for their Sun Belt winners, sleeper looks, plus fade schools as well.
It wasn’t unanimous, but the majority believed Troy will walk away with the Sun Belt title this year.
“Over the last half-dozen years, I don’t know that there’s been a team in America that’s hooked me up with more winners than the Troy Trojans, who are 22-13 ATS since 2006. They are 14-6 ATS on the road during that span. Larry Blakeney’s program is the class of the Sun Belt Conference, annually taking on the premier teams in America and competing at a high level,” explained Brian Edwards.
Judd Hall agreed with Edwards. He said, “It’s hard not to think of Troy not winning this conference in 2009. They’ve won the league title either outright or a share of it for the last three seasons. And you’re going to be hard pressed to find a mid-major team that will cash in for you against the BCS schools with a 6-3 ATS record against those upper tier colleges. The offense is practically intact from the year before, anchored by Levi Brown under center.”
What’s impressive about Brown is that he earned his spot when starting gun slinger Jamie Hampton was injured in the fifth game of the season. In his eight games, Brown led the team to a 5-3 mark and the losses were by a combined 13 points, including the aforementioned setback to LSU in Baton Rouge by nine.
The lone expert that didn’t buy into Troy was Kevin Rogers, who is leaning toward Florida Atlantic as the eventual champion. Rogers noted, “The Owls have routinely played difficult non-conference schedules under head coach Howard Schellenberger, and I think it will pay off again this season. FAU battles Nebraska, South Carolina, and UAB on the road, while hosting Wyoming in early October. The Owls return senior quarterback Rusty Smith, who has been the standout player for this program since its inception. The defense is shaky but FAU travels to Troy in late November, and gamblers should know that the road team has won the last three head-to-head meetings.”
While it’s hard to ignore Troy and FAU as contenders, our group believes some other schools have the ability to make some noise too. Hall and Rogers both feel that Middle Tennessee State can improve off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.
Rogers added, “The Blue Raiders will be at home for only one game the first five weeks of the season, but end the final two months with five of seven in Murfreesboro. MTSU returns 10 starters on offense, including RB Phillip Tanner, who scored 15 TD’s last season. The Blue Raiders weren’t a great ATS play in conference, going 1-6, but covered four of five games against non-conference foes.”
According to Hall, one major reason to look at MTSU is their coaching staff. He added, “The Blue Raiders beefed up their offense with new coordinator Tony Franklin, who is coming back to his old stomping grounds after a brief stint at Auburn last year. He ran Troy’s offense in 2006 and 2007 so he’s very familiar with most everyone in the league. Franklin will have a veteran unit returning on offense and a monster receiving trio that accounted for 13 of the 18 total passing touchdowns scored last season.”
Brian Edwards feels that Louisiana-Lafayette has a shot to turn some heads. “Louisiana has 16 overall starters back from a team that only lost by three at Illinois and by eight at Kansas St. Speaking of the Wildcats, they had better be careful in a Week 2 trip into Cajun Country. La-Lafayette went 8-4 ATS last year and I expect it to be a money maker once again in 2009,” explained Edwards.
While those numbers are impressive, this writer believes ULL is in for some trouble this year. The defense does bring back nine of its top 10 tacklers from 2008 but is that saying much for a group that gave up 33.7 PPG and 28-plus in six oconference games? Combine those numbers with the losses of running back Tyrell Fenroy (1,406 yard, 19 TDs) and dual-threat quarterback Michael Desormeaux (18 total TDs), and its hard to imagine the Rajin’ Cajuns hitting 67% against the number again. Gamblers might want to look for ‘under’ plays on ULL this year.
July 27, 2009
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Did you know the Sun Belt Conference has posted a 4-2 (67%) record against the spread in bowl games the last three years?
Were you impressed with Troy’s success against top-tier programs Ohio State (10-28) and LSU (40-31) in 2008? Sure, the Trojans lost both games but it took sound efforts from the Buckeyes and Tigers to avoid home upsets.
Are you aware that Arkansas State defeated Texas A&M 18-14 last year in College Station and two years prior almost stunned Texas (21-13) in Austin?
We forgot to mention Middle Tennessee’s 24-14 victory over Maryland last season or Louisiana-Monroe’s 21-14 shocker over Alabama in 2007 in Nick Saban’s first year.
Even though these highlights don’t define the Sun Belt Conference as a whole, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the nine-team group, especially from a gambling point of view. The lack of exposure may hurt these mid-major squads with their goals but it’s definitely helped gamblers at the counter, especially the past few years.
With that being said, we polled the Editorial staff at VegasInsider.com for their Sun Belt winners, sleeper looks, plus fade schools as well.
It wasn’t unanimous, but the majority believed Troy will walk away with the Sun Belt title this year.
“Over the last half-dozen years, I don’t know that there’s been a team in America that’s hooked me up with more winners than the Troy Trojans, who are 22-13 ATS since 2006. They are 14-6 ATS on the road during that span. Larry Blakeney’s program is the class of the Sun Belt Conference, annually taking on the premier teams in America and competing at a high level,” explained Brian Edwards.
Judd Hall agreed with Edwards. He said, “It’s hard not to think of Troy not winning this conference in 2009. They’ve won the league title either outright or a share of it for the last three seasons. And you’re going to be hard pressed to find a mid-major team that will cash in for you against the BCS schools with a 6-3 ATS record against those upper tier colleges. The offense is practically intact from the year before, anchored by Levi Brown under center.”
What’s impressive about Brown is that he earned his spot when starting gun slinger Jamie Hampton was injured in the fifth game of the season. In his eight games, Brown led the team to a 5-3 mark and the losses were by a combined 13 points, including the aforementioned setback to LSU in Baton Rouge by nine.
The lone expert that didn’t buy into Troy was Kevin Rogers, who is leaning toward Florida Atlantic as the eventual champion. Rogers noted, “The Owls have routinely played difficult non-conference schedules under head coach Howard Schellenberger, and I think it will pay off again this season. FAU battles Nebraska, South Carolina, and UAB on the road, while hosting Wyoming in early October. The Owls return senior quarterback Rusty Smith, who has been the standout player for this program since its inception. The defense is shaky but FAU travels to Troy in late November, and gamblers should know that the road team has won the last three head-to-head meetings.”
While it’s hard to ignore Troy and FAU as contenders, our group believes some other schools have the ability to make some noise too. Hall and Rogers both feel that Middle Tennessee State can improve off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.
Rogers added, “The Blue Raiders will be at home for only one game the first five weeks of the season, but end the final two months with five of seven in Murfreesboro. MTSU returns 10 starters on offense, including RB Phillip Tanner, who scored 15 TD’s last season. The Blue Raiders weren’t a great ATS play in conference, going 1-6, but covered four of five games against non-conference foes.”
According to Hall, one major reason to look at MTSU is their coaching staff. He added, “The Blue Raiders beefed up their offense with new coordinator Tony Franklin, who is coming back to his old stomping grounds after a brief stint at Auburn last year. He ran Troy’s offense in 2006 and 2007 so he’s very familiar with most everyone in the league. Franklin will have a veteran unit returning on offense and a monster receiving trio that accounted for 13 of the 18 total passing touchdowns scored last season.”
Brian Edwards feels that Louisiana-Lafayette has a shot to turn some heads. “Louisiana has 16 overall starters back from a team that only lost by three at Illinois and by eight at Kansas St. Speaking of the Wildcats, they had better be careful in a Week 2 trip into Cajun Country. La-Lafayette went 8-4 ATS last year and I expect it to be a money maker once again in 2009,” explained Edwards.
While those numbers are impressive, this writer believes ULL is in for some trouble this year. The defense does bring back nine of its top 10 tacklers from 2008 but is that saying much for a group that gave up 33.7 PPG and 28-plus in six oconference games? Combine those numbers with the losses of running back Tyrell Fenroy (1,406 yard, 19 TDs) and dual-threat quarterback Michael Desormeaux (18 total TDs), and its hard to imagine the Rajin’ Cajuns hitting 67% against the number again. Gamblers might want to look for ‘under’ plays on ULL this year.
