Some early pre-season plays

[jaypaw]

Last year the spread pushed (@ New York) - maybe the pats we still all fat from a super bowl summer...

2001 NE won at home and beat the spread handily .

Prior to that might not be so relevant cause the pats have changed so much since but the giants beat the spread both times despite close games...

Either way its gonna boil down to Huard vs. who is it Garrret?


Recent Meetings New York New England

Date Away Home Line ATS
8/10/2002 NE 19 NYG 22 -3/33.5 P/O
8/10/2001 NYG 0 NE 14 2/33 NE/U
9/26/1999 NYG 14 NE 16 -6/43.5 NYG/U
12/21/1996 NE 23 NYG 22 9.5/37 NYG/O

 

[jaypaw]

Palmer I guess... If these are up to date:

http://www.nfl.com/teams/depthcharts/NYG

http://www.nfl.com/teams/depthcharts/NE

 

[blueedwards]

ppeter, still like new england minus the 2.5?

 

[ppeter]

yes

not as strong as i initially liked it after seeing some of the info on the Pats cbs on Panthers thread, but the qb rotation looks better than the Giants (Rohan Davey is an awesome preseason qb and I will take him over Garrett any day...Garrett has really been pathetic since he left the cowboys way back when)

I think it will be high scoring game, maybe 24-20 pats

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 06, 2003 at 06:51 PM.]

 

[ppeter]

Adding:

Browns +3 2 units (3 is getting hard to find, mostly 2.5's out there now)

Browns over 35.5 2 units

Crouch/Holcomb battle is heating up, Fisher concentrates on airing it out in the preseason while going vanilla on D

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 06, 2003 at 06:57 PM.]

 

[jaypaw]

Some other notes on this pats game:

- Ty Law and Otis Smith will not start - and I assume this means that they won't be playing at all. 2 Rookie corners will be matching up against the top guns on the Giants, and they will probably play for most of the game because they only have one other corner with a chance of making the team (leonard myers).

- 3 of the 5 "regular" O linemen will likely not be playing due to injury. Andruzzi, Kenyatta Jones, and most recently Mike Compton (helped off the field by trainers on Monday afternoon practice and didn't get back out on the field.) - though I haven't heard an update on this since.

- Kevin Faulk seems to have been taking most of his reps in practice with the 1st team over Antoine Smith. He has had the chance to win the 2st spot before and always lost it to bigger stronger backs - though last year he kicked it into gear and may be ready to make a serious run at this thing. Having said that - He isnt that big and has a tendency to think he's barry sanders - which sometimes leaves him vulnerable to an occaisional wreck... He is quick but not that quick. If he uses his head he wont get it taken off, but if he isnt careful... Also of note at running back JR Redmond, Antoine Womack, and Mike Cloud have all not been practicing. That could be very bad because Antoine Smith (who wimpered into camp failing his first physical and has been practicing very gingerly) doesnt seem to be on the ball this year so far, and the only other back-up is Frank Moreau - whoever the hell that is. BUT this could be very good in another sense - in that if Faulk and Smith split time for the whole first half that will be rough on the Giants 2nd quarter 2nd team (Fassel said that the 1st team would play in the 1st Q, 2nd team in the 2nd Q, and the rest in the second half). Also Patrick Pass (listed as the backup fullback) has filled in from time to time at tailback quite well when he had to.

- All this doesn't bode well for the pats but there are some good signs too: Brady has been in the zone so far in camp and seems to be in sync with Fauria, which will be great to get some of the pressure off of Troy Brown. Huard for some reason hasn't done much but Johan Davey looks like he's ready to tear it up and will probably play most of the game at qb. Also on D Rodney Harrison has had a chip on his shoulder and so has Rosevelt Colvin. These two guys are serial killers and I pity the fool who has to match up against them especailly in preseason play - someone is gonna get hurt the way these guys play - and its refreshing to see.


Also (taken from a clip off patriots.com):

The Patriots are 5-1 at home in the preseason under Head Coach Bill Belichick, having won the last five in a row. … The Patriots have finished 3-1 in the preseason in each of the last two preseasons. … New England has opened the preseason against the Giants nine times, including in 2002 when the Giants defeated the Patriots 22-19 at Giants Stadium. … Former cornerback Ben Kelly signed with the Denver Broncos. … According to the AP, Giants defensive end Michael Strahan has broken his little toe and his status for Thursday's preseason opener is uncertain. … Belichick said earlier this week that rookie cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Eugene Wilson would start the game, while the players who have missed recent practice action, including Joe Andruzzi and Willie McGinest, would not play. … The Patriots have an 83-111-1 all-time record in the preseason.

 

[ppeter]

Adding: Raiders -3 (5 units) PLAY OF THE WEEK

The raiders qb rotation is vastly superior to the Rams. Warner, given his fragility, will not play much, if any, other than Bulger, StL's rotation is a complete joke. Neither Bulger nor Warner will get lots of snaps as they are securely 1-2. Martz is infatuated with journeyman Greg Zolman and is quoted in the StL Dispatch as wanting to give him lots of time.

Tuisasasopo will play about a half (this guy is a preseason monster) Gannon will play about a quarter and both Mirer and Tee Martin are very capable preseason qbs. What this is coming down to is Zolman vs. Tuiasususopo, and I will bet the farm on Tui.

Martz does not care about the preseason, 0-4 ATS last season, while the Callahan has been covering at home.

St. Louis Rams - QB Rotation: Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Greg Zolman, Scott Covington, Kirk Farmer (exact amount of playing time not known).

Kurt Warner rested his arm in practice Tuesday, giving way to the three other quarterbacks. Said Rams coach Mike Martz, "He has a little soreness in the arm. So, instead of aggravating it we let him rest. He needs the rest. It's also a good chance to get those other quarterbacks a lot of snaps under pressure with a pass rush."

Greg Zolman is the team's third-string quarterback. Mike Martz plans on using Zolman quite a bit during the preseason, which spells trouble for former Missouri quarterback Kirk Farmer.

Oakland - QB Rotation: Rich Gannon (1-2 series), Marques Tuiasosopo (2nd-3rd Qs), Rick Mirer and Tee Martin may mop up.

Expect to see a lot of rookie tight end Teyo Johnson. The 6-foot-6, 250-lb Johnson has impressed in camp and will get time to shine during the preseason.


INFORMATION COURTESY OF WWW.JIMFEIST.COM

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 07, 2003 at 03:45 AM.]

 

[ppeter]

Adding:

Chargers +3 4 units

Seahawks will likely be without starting two qbs as both Hasselbeck and Dilfer are injured. If by some miracle either plays, they will most likely just hand the ball off. Jeff Kelly and Seneca Wallace will the starters for the Seahawks, with Kelly getting the majority of the game.

Marty has supposedly been cracking the whip on the chargers in practice lately.

Chargers under 37 (3 units) TOTAL OF THE WEEK

See above. Also, the SD wideouts have been banged up, 6 held out of practice.

I see lots of running, "Marty ball" type game.

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 07, 2003 at 03:48 AM.]

 

[Oren1]

thanks for the update there ppeter, solid annalysis. I'm not betting on my boys this week, they always seem to start out of the gate pretty slow, I think i remember a horrible performance last preseason against the Cowboys. But Tui is solid and they have a good chance of winning this thing. That Seahawks info is especially helpful, I was leaning towards the Hawks with Dilfer in the mix, but with him AND Hasslesuck out, it's gotta be Chargers all they way, you'd think. I've already got a lot of plays for this week but maybe I'll add another... thanks!

 

[Oren1]

ppeter, where did you get that Seahawks injury information? All I could find was a bit about Dilfer being out of shape and in the process of getting his shit back together because he didn't focus on football in the offseason. Thanks.

update: I read that Hasslesuck was out because of a soar throwing shoulder, but returned to practice earlier this week, and Dilfer was possibly out for another week from an unspecified injury, this from the Seattle Times.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on August 07, 2003 at 05:27 PM.]

 

[olddog]

Lots of good info in this thread.

ppeter-I hope you are half as good at pre-season NFL as you were in the AFL. (I've done very well on af2). Since you are betting 3 and 5 units on some of these week one pre-season games, how many units do you bet on reg season nfl games?

As for 'taking the team playing their second game vs a team playing first game' system, you guys have it very finely tuned (i.e. only take dogs of +3 or more playing withing 500 miles of home and only east of the Mississippi after traveling less than 2,000 miles after their first game and only on Quantas airlines, etc. lol). I think 'team playing second game vs team playing first game' is one of several hundred factors to be considered along w/ fatigue, injs, QB rotation, etc., etc., etc., when betting on pre-saeson.

Good luck to all this season. I'm betting lightly on NY tonite as everything I've read says they'll be airing it out and NE is working on running game and I think Jessie Palmer is slightly better in his 3rd year than Rohan Davey is in his 2nd year. It does scare me that Bellichek has a good home pre-season record--he was 2-0 last year, but only 1-1 ATs.

During pre-season, I only bet ~1/4 my normal NFL reg season unit bet and I bet very few games. I do think money can be made in pre-season if you get good info and choose your spots carefully.

 

[ppeter]

Dog

I rate plays from 1-6 units

I go bigger on pre-season and college foots than the regular season nfl. I am a better preseason and college capper than regular season nfl, but I think I am still a decent regular season capper (e.g. I don't lose over the course of the season).

I probably average around 59% winning percentage on college foots, around 60% in preseason nfl and around 55% in regular season nfl.

3 units is a big play for me on regular season nfl games, but 3 units is an average play in the preseason

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 07, 2003 at 08:24 PM.]

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 07, 2003 at 08:25 PM.]

 

[ppeter]

Oren:

INFORMATION COURTESY OF WWW.JIMFEIST.COM

S.D. Chargers - QB Rotation: Drew Brees, Doug Flutie, Seth Burford, Cleo Lemon (amount of time not known).

Coach Marty Schottenheimer was so upset with his players' mental mistakes and general lethargy 30 minutes into Tuesday's practice that he made them restart the workout. "If we (mess) up, we'll start over again," he barked. "We are not going to practice like that."

Seattle Seahawks - QB Rotation: Matt Hassellbeck, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Kelly, Seneca Wallace (amount of time not known).


QB Matt Hasselbeck has a sore elbow, while Dilfer could be out another week because of a pulled muscle in his rib cage. Those situations have opened the door for Jeff Kelly and rookie Seneca Wallace.

In practice from Sunday to Tuesday, Kelly handled most of the snaps with the No. 1 offense, Wallace with the No. 2 team.

Despite Feist's reputation, he has some damn good info on his site. We should all make one call to his "blue ribbon" 900 line to thank him.

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 07, 2003 at 08:30 PM.]

 

[Oren1]

thanks

 

[ppeter]

Nice start to the pre-season with a win on NE

1-0 +3.0 units

 

[Oren1]

nice call. I should have taken that instead of the over. Good luck this weekend dawg.

 

[ppeter]

FLASH

DOWNGRADE Raiders -3 to a 2 unit play (sorry for jumping the gun on making it a POW)

Raiders have some late injury information concerning the secondary, top 3 starters are out

Adding: Raiders over 38 2 units

 

[ppeter]

UPGRADE TB + 3 to 4 units

Screw the "japan fatigue factor" angle everybody seems to be jumping on

The Dolphins are REALLY banged up. Jay Fiedler is out, as are most of the defensive stars. Greise is likely to only play one quarter and from what I read, is having some initial problems picking up the Dolphin offense.

TB looked great in Tokyo and if they play even half as good, they will get the cover

 

[5teamparlay]

goos start ppeter, thanks for the write-ups and the plays earlier this week, got some 1st half chiefs money at least. good work

 

[ppeter]

sorry for the gaffe on the Raiders, at least I dropped it in time to a 2 unit play

like the fin players that got fvcked out of a chance for covering in ot when the fins went for 2, we could have had a chance at covering in ot but for a missed xp by the rams, oh well, at least we were strong on the right side of the bucs game so 1-1 in the missed xp breaks for the season

I noticed the Janakowski was in mid-season form, what did he miss, something like 3 fg's? Any of those could have covered for us. Drug addicted POS

record now 2-2 +1.6 games


Adding: GB +3.5 2 units
(playing on a team in its second game vs team in its first game angle has done well so far this year)

Wash -2 2 units
Spurier loves to win the preseason games, lots of quality time with the starters in the game

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 09, 2003 at 01:07 PM.]