Soccer line moves

Search

EX LFC BALL BOY
Joined
Jan 21, 2001
Messages
1,888
Tokens
I keep extensive records of all my bets in an Excel spreadsheet. I think I will look at those matches where I bet the underdog and find if there is much of a difference taking the Draw.

Thanks for the advice.

I would be very interested to know your results as well, the average draw odds is about +220, the idea is to pick at least 32% in a long run to break even if you are unambitious like myself. Most teams play for the draw when they are on the road, winning is a bonus(and bad news to me). Do you have matchbook, betfair or mension qtl?
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
06-01-07:
Republic of Ireland, Eirecom Premier League
UC Dublin +145 over Waterford 5dimes 1/2 unit
UC Dublin/Waterford draw +218 5dimes 1/2 unit

Here's another one to follow.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
I would be very interested to know your results as well, the average draw odds is about +220, the idea is to pick at least 32% in a long run to break even if you are unambitious like myself. Most teams play for the draw when they are on the road, winning is a bonus(and bad news to me). Do you have matchbook, betfair or mension qtl?

I had Matchbook and Mansion but haven't used the exchanges in quite a while.

I've noticed the draw on road games as well. If I split the bet as I did on the UCD/Waterford bet I will get a better payoff if UCD draws. Since this is more likely I have weighted the result based upon the likelihood of the event occuring.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
Adding-

06-02-07:
Republic of Ireland, Eirecom Premier League
FC Bohemians/Sligo draw +220 bet365

Adding the draw here based upon Antonioli's comment that teams often play for the draw on the road. The date on this one is 06-02-07 instead of 06-01-07 as I had put on the earlier bet.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
06-01-07:
Republic of Ireland, Eirecom Premier League
UC Dublin +145 over Waterford 5dimes 1/2 unit
UC Dublin/Waterford draw +218 5dimes 1/2 unit

Here's another one to follow.

UCD wins 3-1. +0.23

I'm thinking that playing both for the win and the draw gives me effective odds of about -400. It hardly seems worth it.
 

EX LFC BALL BOY
Joined
Jan 21, 2001
Messages
1,888
Tokens
UCD wins 3-1. +0.23

I'm thinking that playing both for the win and the draw gives me effective odds of about -400. It hardly seems worth it.

It wasn't wise, take either one.

Brings an interesting point. I don't know if you remember, ATX used to bet .3%-.5% on the spread, .1% on the ML for NBA, he did the same with MLB with .3%-5% on the ML, on alternate RL for .1%, i often wonder if that's a profitable proposition when applies to soccer.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
Biggest game of the Year for Sligo as they welcome back their Ex manager who left amidst pissy circumstances, real resentment here so draw probabvly a good bet. bohs also got a few injuries. :thumbsup:
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
It wasn't wise, take either one.

Brings an interesting point. I don't know if you remember, ATX used to bet .3%-.5% on the spread, .1% on the ML for NBA, he did the same with MLB with .3%-5% on the ML, on alternate RL for .1%, i often wonder if that's a profitable proposition when applies to soccer.

Yes, I remember ATX. I always wonder what happened to him. He told me he bet the 0.1%-0.5% (or so) as a percentage of his bankroll. He said this was proper bankroll management.

I have to make a clarification here that my previous bets were for the 3-way. I should have stated that in each bet. That's why I tallied a -1.0 unit for the draw on Falkenbergs. I'll notate the difference from this point forward.

Adding 2 more:
Euro 2008 Qualifiers
Romania over Slovenia (3 way) Centrebet
Bulgaria over Belarus ML bet365
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
Turkey goes up 1-0 and then the match gets "Suspended"? Why do I always pick the team that gets in the lead and then the match gets suspended???
 
Joined
Jun 23, 2006
Messages
7,174
Tokens
crazy shit has been going on in Bosnia Home games because majority of the fans hate the Federation. many Bosnia players are in the same boat and have quit the team, and Bosnia have been fielding less than their 'A' team in their recent international matches
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
crazy shit has been going on in Bosnia Home games because majority of the fans hate the Federation. many Bosnia players are in the same boat and have quit the team, and Bosnia have been fielding less than their 'A' team in their recent international matches

Thanks for the info MrCleo.

International scores:
Bosnia 3, Turkey 2, loss
Bulgaria 2, Belarus 0, win
Romania 2, Slovenia 1, win

Ireland:
Sligo 2, Bohemians 1, double loss
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
Biggest game of the Year for Sligo as they welcome back their Ex manager who left amidst pissy circumstances, real resentment here so draw probabvly a good bet. bohs also got a few injuries. :thumbsup:

Sligo wins that match even though the line went toward Bohemians. Kind of tells you that you can't always make a bet based upon line-movement alone.

I'm still trying to refine which line moves are valid and which are not. Thanks for the input.

:toast:
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
06-03-07:
Norway Adeccoligaen
Sognal -125 over Mandalskameratene
It seems whenever I pick a trend to continue it ends up stopping when I bet on it. We shall see as MK has not won yet this year in the Adeccoligaen. They have scored 3 goals in 7 matches.

Sognal is on the other end of the table, tied for second. They are looking to pick up an easy 3 points here.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
06-03-07:
Norway Adeccoligaen
Sognal -125 over Mandalskameratene
It seems whenever I pick a trend to continue it ends up stopping when I bet on it. We shall see as MK has not won yet this year in the Adeccoligaen. They have scored 3 goals in 7 matches.

Sognal is on the other end of the table, tied for second. They are looking to pick up an easy 3 points here.

I should have mentioned that MK had not even drawn or won in 7 matches. That is, until today. They draw with Sogndal. My streak of picking losers in streaks continues.

:nopityA:
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
I've decided to use Euro odds since most of the people reading this are from Europe.

Norway - Adeccoligaen
Bodø/Glimt 2.25 over Molde NordicBet

Molde has won all 3 of their away matches. So why am I taking Bodø here? Well the 3 matches Molde won on the road were against 3 of the lowest 5 teams in the Adeccoligaen. In other words, I don't feel they are all that good on the road. That's why the odds for Bodø are so good here.

Bodø, on the other hand, won their first 5 matches until last week when they lost to Haugesund. They will be looking to get back on the winning track at home and I feel they have the talent to do it here.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
Not a line movement bet. Just a personal bet.

Sweden - Superettan
Norrköping/Sundsvall over 2.5 1.935 Pinnacle

2 of the 3 top scoring teams in the league.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
I've decided to use Euro odds since most of the people reading this are from Europe.

Norway - Adeccoligaen
Bodø/Glimt 2.25 over Molde NordicBet

Molde has won all 3 of their away matches. So why am I taking Bodø here? Well the 3 matches Molde won on the road were against 3 of the lowest 5 teams in the Adeccoligaen. In other words, I don't feel they are all that good on the road. That's why the odds for Bodø are so good here.

Bodø, on the other hand, won their first 5 matches until last week when they lost to Haugesund. They will be looking to get back on the winning track at home and I feel they have the talent to do it here.

Molde 2, Bodø 1. Loss.
 

Oh boy!
Joined
Mar 21, 2004
Messages
38,373
Tokens
Not a line move, just a personal pick:

Finland - Veikkausliiga
TPS Turku/Honka Espoo over 2.5 1.98 Ladbrokes
It's early in the season in the Veikkausliiga however Turku has scored well winning 3-1 against Lahti and 5-1 against Vaasa VPS in their first 2 home matches. Turku is again at home in this match.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,118,870
Messages
13,560,702
Members
100,700
Latest member
877cashnow!
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com