Mccain "Losing in a way that threatens to take the ENTIRE REPUBLICAN PARTY DOWN"
There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.
A year ago, the Arizona senator's team made a crucial strategic decision. McCain would run on his (impressive) personal biography. On policy, he'd hew mostly to conservative orthodoxy, with a few deviations -- most notably, his support for legalization for illegal immigrants. But this strategy wasn't yielding results in the general election. So in August, McCain tried a bold new gambit: He would reach out to independents and women with an exciting and unexpected vice presidential choice.
That didn't work out so well either. Gov. Sarah Palin connected with neither independents nor women. She did, however, ignite the Republican base, which has come to support her passionately. And so, in this last month, the McCain campaign has
Palinized itself to make the most of its last asset. To fire up the Republican base, the McCain team has hit at Barack Obama as an alien, a radical and a socialist.
Sure enough, the base has responded. After months and months of wan enthusiasm among Republicans, these last weeks have at last energized the core of the party. But there's a downside: The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which was the only place where the 2008 election could have been won.
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I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP.
McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."
In the Senate, things look, if possible, even worse.
The themes and messages that are galvanizing the crowds for Palin are bleeding Sens. John Sununu in New Hampshire, Gordon Smith in Oregon, Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Susan Collins in Maine. The Palin approach might have been expected to work better in more traditionally conservative states such as Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, but they have not worked well enough to compensate for the weak Republican economic message at a moment of global financial crisis. Result: the certain loss of John Warner's Senate seat in Virginia, the probable loss of Elizabeth Dole's in North Carolina, an unexpectedly tough fight for Saxby Chambliss's in Georgia -- and an apparent GOP surrender in Colorado, where it looks as if the National Republican Senatorial Committee has already pulled its ads from the air.
The fundraising challenge only makes things worse. The Republican senatorial and congressional committees have badly underperformed compared with their Democratic counterparts -- and the Republican National Committee, which has done well, is directing its money toward the presidential campaign, rather than to local races. (It was RNC funds, not McCain '08 money, that paid the now-famous $150,000 for Palin's campaign wardrobe, for example.) This is a huge mistake.
In these last days before the vote, Republicans need to face some strategic realities. Our resources are limited, and our message is failing. We cannot fight on all fronts. We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.
A beaten party needs a base from which to recover. In 1993, our Republican base was found in the states and the cities. We had the governorships of California, Michigan and Wisconsin in 1993, and Rudy Giuliani won the New York mayor's race later that year. The reform we delivered at the state and local levels contrasted acutely with the shambles of President Clinton's first two years -- and helped us win both houses of Congress in 1994.
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There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.
A year ago, the Arizona senator's team made a crucial strategic decision. McCain would run on his (impressive) personal biography. On policy, he'd hew mostly to conservative orthodoxy, with a few deviations -- most notably, his support for legalization for illegal immigrants. But this strategy wasn't yielding results in the general election. So in August, McCain tried a bold new gambit: He would reach out to independents and women with an exciting and unexpected vice presidential choice.
That didn't work out so well either. Gov. Sarah Palin connected with neither independents nor women. She did, however, ignite the Republican base, which has come to support her passionately. And so, in this last month, the McCain campaign has
Palinized itself to make the most of its last asset. To fire up the Republican base, the McCain team has hit at Barack Obama as an alien, a radical and a socialist.
Sure enough, the base has responded. After months and months of wan enthusiasm among Republicans, these last weeks have at last energized the core of the party. But there's a downside: The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which was the only place where the 2008 election could have been won.
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I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP.
McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."
In the Senate, things look, if possible, even worse.
The themes and messages that are galvanizing the crowds for Palin are bleeding Sens. John Sununu in New Hampshire, Gordon Smith in Oregon, Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Susan Collins in Maine. The Palin approach might have been expected to work better in more traditionally conservative states such as Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, but they have not worked well enough to compensate for the weak Republican economic message at a moment of global financial crisis. Result: the certain loss of John Warner's Senate seat in Virginia, the probable loss of Elizabeth Dole's in North Carolina, an unexpectedly tough fight for Saxby Chambliss's in Georgia -- and an apparent GOP surrender in Colorado, where it looks as if the National Republican Senatorial Committee has already pulled its ads from the air.
The fundraising challenge only makes things worse. The Republican senatorial and congressional committees have badly underperformed compared with their Democratic counterparts -- and the Republican National Committee, which has done well, is directing its money toward the presidential campaign, rather than to local races. (It was RNC funds, not McCain '08 money, that paid the now-famous $150,000 for Palin's campaign wardrobe, for example.) This is a huge mistake.
In these last days before the vote, Republicans need to face some strategic realities. Our resources are limited, and our message is failing. We cannot fight on all fronts. We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.
A beaten party needs a base from which to recover. In 1993, our Republican base was found in the states and the cities. We had the governorships of California, Michigan and Wisconsin in 1993, and Rudy Giuliani won the New York mayor's race later that year. The reform we delivered at the state and local levels contrasted acutely with the shambles of President Clinton's first two years -- and helped us win both houses of Congress in 1994.
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What does Las Vegas have to do with anything? Las Vegas can't and doesn't post odds on the election. Election odds are driven by the open predictive markets, similar to the stock market. Of course, just as the stock market can be manipulated at times so can the predictive market, but there is a push and pull toward the correct number.
As for betting it, I already "bet the shit out of it" (Obama) between +110 and -150, so I have done just a tad of nibbling the other way between +800 and +980. I'm almost set now most likely. As of this moment, I think +/- 800 is a very solid number here.
Okie doke, -700 it is then.
:thumbsup:
As it stands today, according to predictor models McPalin has about a 5% chance of pulling it out.
ope:
As it stands today, that is correct. And if today was Nov. 4 then -800 would be a great value. But it is true that you have to discount some for the unknown in the next 8 days. We don't yet know what we don't know. Ya know. That is McCain's hope.
Those predictor models don't take into account all of the massive voter supression schemes that the republicans have in place. They assume that everyone that goes to the polls is going to be able to cast a ballot and that those "votes" will be counted.
Watch Colorado. That state is going to deviate significantly from the pre-election polls (in favor of McCain/Palin). There's going to be voter supression that'll make Ohio in 2004 look clean by comparisan. I don't think the predictor model should be close to 50% , but I think it's a lot higher than 5%.
hno: What dumbasses! :missingte
Unless you guys are some rich fatcats, why in the hell would you vote for McCain? Dont you realize that the middle class is going to get hammered if he wins? Who do you think is going to pay for all McCains stuff, considering hes not going to raise the taxes on the rich? The middle class thats who. This guy will pound the middle class so hard, that in a few years there will no longer be a middle class. If you think that he will pay for things like his never ending war by cutting spending, forgot about it. Politicians never cuaght spending, so get that right out of your heads.
Iam pretty amazed at how the people voting for McCain cant figure this out. Obama is not that great of a choice, i just know that unless you are a rich guy, you will have less of a chance of getting taxed to death with Obama then you do with McCain.
All am gonna say is if McCain should win and your getting hammered in taxes next year, remember where you read that this will happen and who told you.
It doesnt take a genius to figure out if the rich are getting tax breaks, somebody is gonna have to make up the difference from those tax breaks and that would be the middle class worker who built this country.
I feel sorry for all you guys who have kids because they wont have good paying jobs at the rate these scumbag rich corporations are moving jobs overseas and not even getting punished for it here in America. I hope your kids and grandkids love working at burger king or mickey d's because those are gonna be the jobs left in this country.
good luck voting:toast:
p.s. and another thing for all you gun lovers, the democrats arent going to be the ones who take away your guns, its going to be the republicans who finally do it. Most people are to blind to see that its been the republicans who have been slowly little by little passing laws taking away our freedoms and when they get all the laws passed they need to complete their total power control, they will come for the guns, so also remember who told you this when it happens. Some people just cant see the forest thru the trees
Iam pretty amazed at how the people voting for McCain cant figure this out. Obama is not that great of a choice, i just know that unless you are a rich guy, you will have less of a chance of getting taxed to death with Obama then you do with McCain.
All am gonna say is if McCain should win and your getting hammered in taxes next year, remember where you read that this will happen and who told you.
It doesnt take a genius to figure out if the rich are getting tax breaks, somebody is gonna have to make up the difference from those tax breaks and that would be the middle class worker who built this country.
I feel sorry for all you guys who have kids because they wont have good paying jobs at the rate these scumbag rich corporations are moving jobs overseas and not even getting punished for it here in America. I hope your kids and grandkids love working at burger king or mickey d's because those are gonna be the jobs left in this country.
good luck voting:toast:
p.s. and another thing for all you gun lovers, the democrats arent going to be the ones who take away your guns, its going to be the republicans who finally do it. Most people are to blind to see that its been the republicans who have been slowly little by little passing laws taking away our freedoms and when they get all the laws passed they need to complete their total power control, they will come for the guns, so also remember who told you this when it happens. Some people just cant see the forest thru the trees
