Part of the problem for Rich Rod is the fact that Michigan fans are going to want results, and fast. Michigan still is not close to having the talent that Ohio State has. They are 7 point underdogs to Ohio State at home this year, and that line is bound to climb. They must play at Ohio State next year. Will Michigan fans suffer through what surely looks like two more losses to Ohio State at a minimum? It has already been 5 straight losses for Michigan. How much more will their fans put up with?
Your margin for error is a lot different when your hardest conference games come against USF, Pitt, Rutgers and Cincy. Substitute them with teams like Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin, Mich. St. and Iowa and all the sudden it takes longer to get over the hump. He now faces a couple top ten programs every year that can actually stop the run and will make you throw to win.
UM will be back in the top 25 next year from all the talent they have been bringing in but the growing pains continue for another year.
UM will be back in the top 25 next year from all the talent they have been bringing in but the growing pains continue for another year.
Remember that it was a lot easier for Rich Rod to rally a Weswt Virginia team to that 9-4 record playing the likes of Temple, Tennessee-Chatt, East Carolina, Syracuse, and Rutgers. Rutgers won 1 game that year. Temple won 4. Syracuse won 4. East Carolina won 4. Tennessee Chat. is an FCS School. 5 easy wins. It is not nearly as easy in the Big 10.
One other thing...Michigan lost 5 of their 9 games last season by 2 TD's or more. The only teams they beat were a non-bcs Miami, Ohio team, Wisconsin (I didn't think much of this team or their coach last year or this year) and a Minnesota team who was in the middle of a 5 game losing streak to end the season. I look for Michigan to be more competetive this season. But being competetive and winning games are two different things. The games will be closer and they'll get a few more covers. But I'm betting that it won't translate into straight up wins. I think that Michigan's one best chance at a road win will come against Wisconsin in November when their QB has a little more seasoning. They'll have to get a road win somewhere during the season, plus they'll have to beat their 3 non-bcs opponents plus Purdue and Indiana at home. If they did all of this they would get to 6 wins for the season. Still a push. But with a freshman QB, one rule of thumb is you don't automatically assume they'll get a road win anywhere. Especially early in the season.. That's why I don't think the over 6 is a very good preseason play.
If you are going to use history as a guide, a 3 win season shouldn't be used to measure Michigan.
I am not a fan of Mich and I was happy to see the bottom fall out last season. Regardless, 2008 was Michigans' first losing record season since the 1967 4-8 season, a 33 year bowl streak was ended, and 3-9 is the worst season in the programs' history.
As September approaches and I continue looking over the conference and the Michigan schedule, I am really starting to consider playing over 6 wins.
I wouldn't play on either the over or under but coming from a guy that watched every game they played last year Michigan will be vastly better this year. Just the fact that this QB can actually run the system will make a huge difference. If they can not turn the ball over as much this year they will upset somebody. I'm not saying ohio state or anything like that but they could upset Ill, MSU or somebody like that. Look at last years game against Notre Dame. Michigan outplayed them the whole game but turned the ball over like 7 times and 3 times inside their own 5 yard line. If they eliminate that, combined with a QB that can run the system than 7 or even 8 wins wouldn't shock me.
The ND - UM game will tell us all we need to know about both teams. A Michigan win, and they will be 4-0 going into East Lansing (E. Mich and Indiana follow this game) and likely bowl bound with Delaware State and Purdue remaining on the schedule - both which are home games.
An ND win likely signals a trip to a BCS bowl seeing how the last few times the visiting team won this game, the winner ended up with 10+ wins and a trip to either Tempe (now Glendale) or Pasadena.
An ND win likely signals a trip to a BCS bowl seeing how the last few times the visiting team won this game, the winner ended up with 10+ wins and a trip to either Tempe (now Glendale) or Pasadena.
