Why do you saying fading lifetime mega losers is not sustainable?
Why do you saying fading lifetime mega losers is not sustainable?
In post #27 Cyyyk sums it up.
Just because someone else is a loser doesn't mean you can profit off of them. The sports betting market strives for efficiency. Betting into an efficient # likely won't yield awful results, just a negative 4.5% return over time. This is a huge reason the sports betting model works actually, because nobody can be THAT bad at it long-term. Unlike table games where even short-term winnings can just be chalked up to variance, short-term winnings in sports betting can open themselves up to tons of different inpretations as to why it happened.
The worst bettors with bad information likely aren't going to hit less than 47.7%. Sans variance what makes you think they will?
I know this isn't as simple a concept as something like roulette regression being BS, but fading largely makes no sense.
Would you really ever bet on a sporting event just for the simple fact someone else bet the other side?
