I would wonder how many 5 teamers have you played this year, and what is roi on these?? If its your first 5 teamer of the year, and you "promise" not to play another one, take the Giants + points.. If you have played some (doesn't matter if you've won or lost) already this year, take a risk, we are all gamblers here right? LOL..
Actually, this my my second parlay (moneyline this year. 9 days ago I had
Boston College -300
Final BC 35 Rutgers 25
GT -500 over Carolina
Final GT 41-24
LSU -270 over Alabama
Final LSU 24-3
TCU -280 over Cincinatti
Final TCU 43-10
NCSU +14 Over FSU (This was MY Triple PLAY)
Final FSU 50-44
7 Team parlay with Bodog
Wagered 500 to win 5440
WON IT, BUT I rarely play these. 90% of my money are on my TRIPLE PLAYS
If I hit tonight, I will be 2 for 2 in moneyline parlays this year, risking Turning my money 8X
I Know this is a fluke, but occasionally 3-4 times a year if I have a good feeling on a straight up winner, I'll gamble.
Action
Boston College -300
Final BC 35 Rutgers 25
GT -500 over Carolina
Final GT 41-24
LSU -270 over Alabama
Final LSU 24-3
TCU -280 over Cincinatti
Final TCU 43-10
NCSU +14 Over FSU (This was MY Triple PLAY)
Final FSU 50-44
7 Team parlay with Bodog
Wagered 500 to win 5440
WON IT, BUT I rarely play these. 90% of my money are on my TRIPLE PLAYS
If I hit tonight, I will be 2 for 2 in moneyline parlays this year, risking Turning my money 8X
I Know this is a fluke, but occasionally 3-4 times a year if I have a good feeling on a straight up winner, I'll gamble.
Action
agree with some others here
"hedge" the play with NYG + the points - this way you can maybe win BOTH bets - the M/L parlay as well as the ATS play. you would have to risk more - but you do stand the chance of winning 2 bets as opposed to 1.
if you take NYG on the M/L - the most you can make is about $1,000 and the least you can make is about $50-$100
if you take NYG +6 @ 550-500 the most you can make is $1,750 - but you can also win:
$1,250 (if you get NYG +6 - and it falls on that)
$700 (TB covers whatever line you got with NYG)
$0 (if NYG wins SU)
"hedge" the play with NYG + the points - this way you can maybe win BOTH bets - the M/L parlay as well as the ATS play. you would have to risk more - but you do stand the chance of winning 2 bets as opposed to 1.
if you take NYG on the M/L - the most you can make is about $1,000 and the least you can make is about $50-$100
if you take NYG +6 @ 550-500 the most you can make is $1,750 - but you can also win:
$1,250 (if you get NYG +6 - and it falls on that)
$700 (TB covers whatever line you got with NYG)
$0 (if NYG wins SU)
Winky, believe it or not, I had company about about 45 minutes before game time, and about 9:15 Eastern I looked up and said "OH Shucks," or something like that. I intended to take the Giants plus the points, but I forgot with my visitors.
I admit, I goofed, and it almost cost me. I was definitely going to hedge.
Action
I admit, I goofed, and it almost cost me. I was definitely going to hedge.
Action
The right move is to sit on the ticket. Gamblers as a rule hedge WAY too much. Reminds me of a poker room I used to run. Had a lady who would lose thousands and thousands on a cold night. I mean she would play for 2 days and lose 5k in one sitting trying to get even. If she got hot another night and was actually catching cards she would run for the door with a $300 win and a big grin on her face. People do the opposite of what they should do. When hot you play longer and when you are cold get the hell out of there, it isn't your night. What they do is maximize losses and minimize wins! LOL.
Anyway back to this, if I said at the beginning of the week I will let you wager $500 to win $1250 on Tampa on the money line what would you say? I'd say can I get more than a nickel on it? I surely wouldn't sit there and when the odds are completely in your favor give away your edge! The only time I think you hedge is when it's a once in a lifetime deal, you bet $10 and can win 20k if the last game comes in or it's a bankroll concern and you need the money. Not preaching to you guys but if you are serious about gambling you have to let the numbers work for you when you have the advantage, they will long term. You work too hard to get an edge to give it away when you do. My only question would be I want more, not trying to hedge out of the best situation on the planet. Anyway just my opinion of course.
Oh by the way, CONGRATS Action! Couldn't happen to a better guy around here.
Anyway back to this, if I said at the beginning of the week I will let you wager $500 to win $1250 on Tampa on the money line what would you say? I'd say can I get more than a nickel on it? I surely wouldn't sit there and when the odds are completely in your favor give away your edge! The only time I think you hedge is when it's a once in a lifetime deal, you bet $10 and can win 20k if the last game comes in or it's a bankroll concern and you need the money. Not preaching to you guys but if you are serious about gambling you have to let the numbers work for you when you have the advantage, they will long term. You work too hard to get an edge to give it away when you do. My only question would be I want more, not trying to hedge out of the best situation on the planet. Anyway just my opinion of course.
Oh by the way, CONGRATS Action! Couldn't happen to a better guy around here.
"Gamblers hedge way too much". No way Patrick, no way.
If line were different in this game I might agree with you but the boys hung it 5.5 for a reason and look where it fell. Buying the Gints to +7.5 gives you 3,4,5,6, AND 7 on a 5.5 lined game and if one hits, which it did, you clear both ways AND you can not loose.
If line were different in this game I might agree with you but the boys hung it 5.5 for a reason and look where it fell. Buying the Gints to +7.5 gives you 3,4,5,6, AND 7 on a 5.5 lined game and if one hits, which it did, you clear both ways AND you can not loose.
You make some good poits Pat, but I agree with Islander...ok- you get a bargain with the Bucs straight up at +250 due to your good work at the front end of the parlay, but you have not removed all risk...I know because I similarly had the Bucs straight up against the Colts. The risk remains that you could lose your original stake (Gruden tried to give the Giants that chance). If you hedge you remove all risk and still assure a profit. Now your not gambling, but money managing.
