A little bit about me:
I've been a loyal RX member for over 3.5 years. I enjoy the intelligence level of the average poster here much moreso than at several other forums. You can read more at my website about about the length of time I have spent developing my computer program. In terms of sharing my plays to create a foundation of accountability, I shared my computer's system plays as well as my personal plays for the entire 07-08 NFL season at a message board which I won't name but I'll link the threads below. I actually started posting weekly there back in 2006.
I similarly started posting here in 2006. Most of my early posting was research oriented. I have the facts/figures/trends at my disposal and love researching. Anytime someone mentioned a theory, I wanted to discover the truth behind it, will it hold water or not. Anytime someone pulled some numbers out of their ass, I wanted to research if they were correct or not. That is what I contributed early on.
I began writing articles and compiled them into a blog that I started. I posted these articles on the RX as well.
Finally, in 2008, I decided to share plays with this forum on a weekly basis. During which time, I compiled a 23-9-2 (72%). Here are those threads:
<table class="tborder" id="threadslist" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_629596">
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 10, Views: 1,919">
11-03-2008 05:29 PM
by aiverson
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">10</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">1,919</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_627280">
by aiverson
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 7, Views: 1,076">
10-26-2008 09:13 PM
by aiverson
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">7</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">1,076</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_625173">
by aiverson
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 2, Views: 25">
10-19-2008 10:05 AM
by ***********
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">2</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">25</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_623081">
by ***********
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 6, Views: 1,541">
10-13-2008 07:39 PM
by RDTrains
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">6</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">1,541</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_620783">
by RDTrains
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 21, Views: 1,576">
10-06-2008 03:09 PM
by DETROIT911
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">21</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">1,576</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_619050">
by DETROIT911
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 4, Views: 309">
09-30-2008 02:07 PM
by aiverson
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">4</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">309</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_618407">
by aiverson
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 8, Views: 837">
09-29-2008 07:44 PM
by Broke
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">8</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">837</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_616239">
by Broke
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 1, Views: 403">
09-21-2008 09:50 AM
by tlee4lizard
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">403</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_614164">
by tlee4lizard
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 22, Views: 2,327">
09-21-2008 03:09 AM
by alexda[]
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">22</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">2,327</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_613409">
by alexda[]
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 3, Views: 211">
09-11-2008 07:45 PM
by 2PLAYSMAX
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">211</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td> </tr><tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_threadstatusicon_612536">
by 2PLAYSMAX
aiverson
</td> <td class="alt2" title="Replies: 4, Views: 657">
09-08-2008 12:32 PM
by Jetplane
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">4</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">657</td> <td class="alt1">NFL FOOTBALL FORUM</td></tr></tbody></table>by Jetplane
As for my threads from 2007, here is the link: Link to 2007-2008 threads.
In week 10 last season, I started my current website and transitioned away from my blog. So, all of this should answer your quesiton above. I've been around for years, on this forum for years. And if anyone has specific questions, feel free to PM or email me. I respond to email quicker as I am not on the RX as much as I am email.
Now, to the point of this thread:
I need to first share with you how I even got to the position that I am now in...
I've known for a while now that I had a computer program which could really do some damage in the NFL. The less I say about it the better. The way I got into Fox Sports Radio is they have this handicapper on the show on a weekly basis. I won't name names. He tosses out plays that hit at a very average rate, but has such a following that many average gamblers hear his info, take it to heart, and make his plays. And these guys are losing money on these plays. So I tried to get my foot in the door and get my plays on air. Obviously free of charge. I just wanted to help the listeners out. Long story short:
I was told to send in my plays on a weekly basis to prove I could hit over 55% for validation, at which time they would start sharing my plays on air. I sent in plays for 3 weeks and hit 65%. I was told I needed to "start over" because they "had not been tracking the weeks" I sent them. I talked to a guy I know who works at another radio station who also has the same handicapper on air. He told me: "We can't share your plays because we have an exclusive agreement with _____ for him to be the sole handicapper". Essentially, this radio station was paid big bucks so that this capper would be the only one on air. And so was the first radio station. So the entire premise of me sending in my plays for 3 weeks to prove my record was bogus. They were never going to share the plays on air, because it would have violated their agreement. They were thinking I would send in my plays and they'd be a complete thud. When it turned out they won, they wanted to start from scratch and count over.
Anyhow, this capper charges over $100 for a week of plays. But hit just over 51% for NFL last season. There are hundreds of other touts in the business who charge a ton and their win percentages don't justify the cost.
My goal in this business is to be the first handicapper who:
1. Hits at an abnormally high percentage (67% lifetime - 239W-116L from the computer).
2. Shares much more information than any other handicapper out there, from trends to detailed analysis to research.
3. Charges as little as possible so that I don't outprice the average gambler.
I'm well on my way to doing that. I set up a program this season so that each person who refers my business to another person will receive $63 from me. That is 20% of the price of the service for the entire season.
What does that equate to? You guys are trying to get a few people together to buy a package and redistribute among the group. Let's say you get 6 people, and each pay $52.50.
What you need to realize is that if one guy referred the other 5 guys, that one guy would actually be paying zero for the season. So he'd be saving money vs. getting other guys to join in.
What you also need to realize is that if you join together and sign up, the guy who bought the service can now refer 1 person and make $63, but none of the other guys will be able to do that, so he is at a huge advantage to make a profit and the other guys are stuck.
Lastly, you do know that last regular season, I released 123 plays. 123/17 weeks = 7.23 plays per week. And if you say I charge $15/week for plays, what you get is that I charge $2 per play. And the plays hit at 67%. So it is not as if I am charging $80 per play and hitting 60%. I am charging just $2 per play, which is going to be affordable for everyone. That is why I set up my business the way I did. I am here to "butt heads" with other services and show them that they had better think twice about trying to charge $20+ per play and deliver less than 60% winners, because I am here to massively undercut them in terms of price and outproduce them in terms of win % and level of info shared.
The way you can actually help out this industry from being high priced, underperforming and completely spineless is to support a business like mine, and do your friends a favor and don't let them pay these high priced touts for plays. That just feeds the machine. The bigger I am able to get, the more notice other touts will take. I do think my model is capable of reforming this industry. I could have sold out to any number of people who tried to buy me and get me to join their site. I knew that would only lead me to more "of the same", and I could not bring myself to do that. I'm here for the average gambler, and the more you can publicize what I'm trying to do, the better for the industry.
I need to first share with you how I even got to the position that I am now in...
I've known for a while now that I had a computer program which could really do some damage in the NFL. The less I say about it the better. The way I got into Fox Sports Radio is they have this handicapper on the show on a weekly basis. I won't name names. He tosses out plays that hit at a very average rate, but has such a following that many average gamblers hear his info, take it to heart, and make his plays. And these guys are losing money on these plays. So I tried to get my foot in the door and get my plays on air. Obviously free of charge. I just wanted to help the listeners out. Long story short:
I was told to send in my plays on a weekly basis to prove I could hit over 55% for validation, at which time they would start sharing my plays on air. I sent in plays for 3 weeks and hit 65%. I was told I needed to "start over" because they "had not been tracking the weeks" I sent them. I talked to a guy I know who works at another radio station who also has the same handicapper on air. He told me: "We can't share your plays because we have an exclusive agreement with _____ for him to be the sole handicapper". Essentially, this radio station was paid big bucks so that this capper would be the only one on air. And so was the first radio station. So the entire premise of me sending in my plays for 3 weeks to prove my record was bogus. They were never going to share the plays on air, because it would have violated their agreement. They were thinking I would send in my plays and they'd be a complete thud. When it turned out they won, they wanted to start from scratch and count over.
Anyhow, this capper charges over $100 for a week of plays. But hit just over 51% for NFL last season. There are hundreds of other touts in the business who charge a ton and their win percentages don't justify the cost.
My goal in this business is to be the first handicapper who:
1. Hits at an abnormally high percentage (67% lifetime - 239W-116L from the computer).
2. Shares much more information than any other handicapper out there, from trends to detailed analysis to research.
3. Charges as little as possible so that I don't outprice the average gambler.
I'm well on my way to doing that. I set up a program this season so that each person who refers my business to another person will receive $63 from me. That is 20% of the price of the service for the entire season.
What does that equate to? You guys are trying to get a few people together to buy a package and redistribute among the group. Let's say you get 6 people, and each pay $52.50.
What you need to realize is that if one guy referred the other 5 guys, that one guy would actually be paying zero for the season. So he'd be saving money vs. getting other guys to join in.
What you also need to realize is that if you join together and sign up, the guy who bought the service can now refer 1 person and make $63, but none of the other guys will be able to do that, so he is at a huge advantage to make a profit and the other guys are stuck.
Lastly, you do know that last regular season, I released 123 plays. 123/17 weeks = 7.23 plays per week. And if you say I charge $15/week for plays, what you get is that I charge $2 per play. And the plays hit at 67%. So it is not as if I am charging $80 per play and hitting 60%. I am charging just $2 per play, which is going to be affordable for everyone. That is why I set up my business the way I did. I am here to "butt heads" with other services and show them that they had better think twice about trying to charge $20+ per play and deliver less than 60% winners, because I am here to massively undercut them in terms of price and outproduce them in terms of win % and level of info shared.
The way you can actually help out this industry from being high priced, underperforming and completely spineless is to support a business like mine, and do your friends a favor and don't let them pay these high priced touts for plays. That just feeds the machine. The bigger I am able to get, the more notice other touts will take. I do think my model is capable of reforming this industry. I could have sold out to any number of people who tried to buy me and get me to join their site. I knew that would only lead me to more "of the same", and I could not bring myself to do that. I'm here for the average gambler, and the more you can publicize what I'm trying to do, the better for the industry.
