VegasButcher - NBA
Miami Heat +4
The Heat are off two straight losses, after beating the Cavs and old mate Lebron James on their home-court on X-Mas day. Clearly that was a big ‘effort’ game for Miami. Today, I expect another one like it. Danny Granger, who spent his previous 9 years with the Pacers (moved to LAC late last season but played in 29 games with IND prior to that), will be coming back ‘home’ for the first time. He didn’t leave on bad terms of course, nor did he spurn the organization – he was simply traded. Some might argue that trading away Granger really messed up Indy’s unity and camaraderie, as you might remember that the Pacers were NOT the same dominant team in the 2nd half of last year. Regardless, players who’ve spent a long time with a particular organization and then have to face them for the first time, tend to play with a little ‘extra’ motivation. That typically rubs off on their teammates as well. No, I don’t have the ‘stats’ to back this up (MIA vs CLE on 12/25 is a great example), just a little basic psychology involved (free psychology lesson to all here! J ). Regardless, even if I’m over-analyzing the impact of Granger’s return on Miami’s “motivation” in this one, the 2-game losing streak should be motivation enough for this team. Both Miami and Indiana will be competing for the 8-seed in the East, so this game is even more important. Keep in mind, these teams met @ MIA on 11/12 with the Pacers coming away with a 6-point win. Of course the game was much closer than that, as Miami had a +0.6 point AVERAGE lead throughout. Basically this was as ‘even’ of a game as it gets. Of course it’s important to note that Indiana played that game without West, Watson, George Hill, and Rodney Stuckey. Indiana outrebounded Miami 53 to 28, which is just a ridiculous differential, and an indication to me that Miami just wasn’t playing as ‘hard’. The only way I can explain that performance is that Miami was coming off a HUGE road win @ Dallas, a game where Bosh/Wade/Deng played major minutes and basically carried the Heat to a win. Miami had a few days off prior to the IND game, and then a game @ Atlanta following the contest with IND, so maybe this was a classic ‘sandwich’ spot for them as the overall ‘energy’ just wasn’t up to par. Regardless, I don’t see Miami over-looking this Pacers team again and of course I expect the Heat to give a strong effort here. West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey provide depth, but neither one of these players is a truly big ‘difference maker’ this season (some of them are probably just a tad better than replacement-level players). Bosh is in his 2nd game back from his long-term injury, so I expect him to be even better than he was on Monday. And I like the adjustment in Miami’s lineup with Birdman Andersen playing the center position while Bosh moving a PF spot, which is a major difference from the first meeting between these two teams. Then, Bosh played at Center and got absolutely abused by the bigger Hibbert, who 16 points and 15 rebounds. Now Bosh will be matched up with David West, and Bosh should dominate that matchup. Bosh is taller and much quicker, so he can either shoot over the top or drive to the basket at will. West has a net rating of -9.5 this season, the worst number on the team, and is clearly NOT the same player he was in the last few years. These are some of the reasons why I believe Miami will play a better game today than in the first meeting with Indiana. But even if you don’t agree with these, I believe there’s some line-value on the Heat here. In the first meeting, Miami was a -8.5 home favorite. With standard H/A adjustments, you’d expect them to be around -2.5 road favorite in this matchup, if everything else was ‘equal’. Well, even if you account for West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey being available today, the 6.5 variance between the current line and the ‘expected’ adjusted line doesn’t add up. Sure, the Bookmakers have re-adjusted their Power Ratings since earlier in the season, after seeing that this Miami team isn’t as good as advertised, and that most likely had a lot more impact on today’s line than the availability of the four IND players I’ve mentioned. But I feel there’s been an over-adjustment. Heat still rank 8th in eFG% on offense and they are 3rd best at getting to the FT-line. With a healthy Bosh, this team is a lot more dangerous than they’ve been for the last 7 games or so. And let’s not forget that Wade/Deng are still playing at a very high level and are capable of taking over games at any time. Indiana is a ‘grinder’ of a team that relies on strong D (#6) and zero O (#29). They’re the kind of a team that won’t often blow-out opponents, and in an important game for both squads, I expect 4-points to be a big difference in this one. Love Miami here and hopefully they play hard for Granger, and more importantly, for themselves today
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
Durant is back for OKC tonight, and that is going to make a big difference in this one. This OKC team already provides a very difficult matchup for the Suns, and with Durant in the fold, it’s an even worse one. There is no one that can guard him on Phoenix. PJ Tucker is known as a defensive player but he’s 6’6 and too slow to stay with a much quicker Durant. Gerald Green is an absolute zero defensively off the bench. When these teams met on 12/14, Durant was just coming back from his early season injury, so was on minutes restriction. He proceeded to shoot 8-13 from the field for 23 points with 8 rebounds in only 24 minutes. What will happen when he’s able to play 35+? Besides Durant, there are other issues for Phoenix in this one. OKC is an elite defensive team, ranking 5th overall in Defensive Efficiency and 4th in eFG%-allowed. They held the Suns to 34% from the field and 88 points in their first meeting. In addition, Thunder will have a huge rebounding advantage in this game, as the Suns are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Particularly on the offensive glass, where OKC ranks 4th overall while Suns are 24th in Defensive RBD-rate. In the first meeting, OKC outrebounded the Suns 63 to 40, and had a 35% offensive RBD-rate in the game. Finally, the fact that Suns tend to have trouble playing D without fouling is a big issue. This team is aggressive defensively ranking 7th in defensive TO-rate, but they are also 29th in FT-rate allowed. That’s a big issue here as OKC with Durant in the lineup tends to live at the FT-line. In the first meeting, Thunder had 34 FT-attempts to Phoenix’ 18.
Keep in mind that when these teams met the first time, Suns had a day-off prior, and were only playing their 2nd game in 5 days. OKC also had a day-off prior, but they were playing their 4th game in 6 nights, so in a tougher physical spot. They proceeded to blow out the Suns 112-88 with an average lead of +18.4 points throughout. That’s as dominant of a performance as you can get. Well, today’s situation is a lot different. OKC has had 2 full days off to rest and practice, as they prepare for this important game (remember, they are chasing Phoenix in the standings). By comparison, the Suns are on b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4th in 6th, with all 4 games being on the road. In addition, they played a really close game @ NO last night, barely losing to the Pellies. In the process, Dragic and Bledsoe logged 36 and 37 minutes respectively. Going up against an explosive Westbrook today could be very difficult for these guys. Fatigue could very well be a major issue tonight for the Suns. Playing their last road-game of the trip prior to heading home on New Year’s Eve is not an easy spot to play in. Facing a fully-healthy and well rested OKC team just makes it that much more difficult. Durant is back for OKC, it’s a great spot to fade the Suns, and most importantly, Thunder is a very difficult matchup for this small, guard-oriented Phoenix team. Lay the points with confidence.
Miami Heat +4
The Heat are off two straight losses, after beating the Cavs and old mate Lebron James on their home-court on X-Mas day. Clearly that was a big ‘effort’ game for Miami. Today, I expect another one like it. Danny Granger, who spent his previous 9 years with the Pacers (moved to LAC late last season but played in 29 games with IND prior to that), will be coming back ‘home’ for the first time. He didn’t leave on bad terms of course, nor did he spurn the organization – he was simply traded. Some might argue that trading away Granger really messed up Indy’s unity and camaraderie, as you might remember that the Pacers were NOT the same dominant team in the 2nd half of last year. Regardless, players who’ve spent a long time with a particular organization and then have to face them for the first time, tend to play with a little ‘extra’ motivation. That typically rubs off on their teammates as well. No, I don’t have the ‘stats’ to back this up (MIA vs CLE on 12/25 is a great example), just a little basic psychology involved (free psychology lesson to all here! J ). Regardless, even if I’m over-analyzing the impact of Granger’s return on Miami’s “motivation” in this one, the 2-game losing streak should be motivation enough for this team. Both Miami and Indiana will be competing for the 8-seed in the East, so this game is even more important. Keep in mind, these teams met @ MIA on 11/12 with the Pacers coming away with a 6-point win. Of course the game was much closer than that, as Miami had a +0.6 point AVERAGE lead throughout. Basically this was as ‘even’ of a game as it gets. Of course it’s important to note that Indiana played that game without West, Watson, George Hill, and Rodney Stuckey. Indiana outrebounded Miami 53 to 28, which is just a ridiculous differential, and an indication to me that Miami just wasn’t playing as ‘hard’. The only way I can explain that performance is that Miami was coming off a HUGE road win @ Dallas, a game where Bosh/Wade/Deng played major minutes and basically carried the Heat to a win. Miami had a few days off prior to the IND game, and then a game @ Atlanta following the contest with IND, so maybe this was a classic ‘sandwich’ spot for them as the overall ‘energy’ just wasn’t up to par. Regardless, I don’t see Miami over-looking this Pacers team again and of course I expect the Heat to give a strong effort here. West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey provide depth, but neither one of these players is a truly big ‘difference maker’ this season (some of them are probably just a tad better than replacement-level players). Bosh is in his 2nd game back from his long-term injury, so I expect him to be even better than he was on Monday. And I like the adjustment in Miami’s lineup with Birdman Andersen playing the center position while Bosh moving a PF spot, which is a major difference from the first meeting between these two teams. Then, Bosh played at Center and got absolutely abused by the bigger Hibbert, who 16 points and 15 rebounds. Now Bosh will be matched up with David West, and Bosh should dominate that matchup. Bosh is taller and much quicker, so he can either shoot over the top or drive to the basket at will. West has a net rating of -9.5 this season, the worst number on the team, and is clearly NOT the same player he was in the last few years. These are some of the reasons why I believe Miami will play a better game today than in the first meeting with Indiana. But even if you don’t agree with these, I believe there’s some line-value on the Heat here. In the first meeting, Miami was a -8.5 home favorite. With standard H/A adjustments, you’d expect them to be around -2.5 road favorite in this matchup, if everything else was ‘equal’. Well, even if you account for West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey being available today, the 6.5 variance between the current line and the ‘expected’ adjusted line doesn’t add up. Sure, the Bookmakers have re-adjusted their Power Ratings since earlier in the season, after seeing that this Miami team isn’t as good as advertised, and that most likely had a lot more impact on today’s line than the availability of the four IND players I’ve mentioned. But I feel there’s been an over-adjustment. Heat still rank 8th in eFG% on offense and they are 3rd best at getting to the FT-line. With a healthy Bosh, this team is a lot more dangerous than they’ve been for the last 7 games or so. And let’s not forget that Wade/Deng are still playing at a very high level and are capable of taking over games at any time. Indiana is a ‘grinder’ of a team that relies on strong D (#6) and zero O (#29). They’re the kind of a team that won’t often blow-out opponents, and in an important game for both squads, I expect 4-points to be a big difference in this one. Love Miami here and hopefully they play hard for Granger, and more importantly, for themselves today
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
Durant is back for OKC tonight, and that is going to make a big difference in this one. This OKC team already provides a very difficult matchup for the Suns, and with Durant in the fold, it’s an even worse one. There is no one that can guard him on Phoenix. PJ Tucker is known as a defensive player but he’s 6’6 and too slow to stay with a much quicker Durant. Gerald Green is an absolute zero defensively off the bench. When these teams met on 12/14, Durant was just coming back from his early season injury, so was on minutes restriction. He proceeded to shoot 8-13 from the field for 23 points with 8 rebounds in only 24 minutes. What will happen when he’s able to play 35+? Besides Durant, there are other issues for Phoenix in this one. OKC is an elite defensive team, ranking 5th overall in Defensive Efficiency and 4th in eFG%-allowed. They held the Suns to 34% from the field and 88 points in their first meeting. In addition, Thunder will have a huge rebounding advantage in this game, as the Suns are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Particularly on the offensive glass, where OKC ranks 4th overall while Suns are 24th in Defensive RBD-rate. In the first meeting, OKC outrebounded the Suns 63 to 40, and had a 35% offensive RBD-rate in the game. Finally, the fact that Suns tend to have trouble playing D without fouling is a big issue. This team is aggressive defensively ranking 7th in defensive TO-rate, but they are also 29th in FT-rate allowed. That’s a big issue here as OKC with Durant in the lineup tends to live at the FT-line. In the first meeting, Thunder had 34 FT-attempts to Phoenix’ 18.
Keep in mind that when these teams met the first time, Suns had a day-off prior, and were only playing their 2nd game in 5 days. OKC also had a day-off prior, but they were playing their 4th game in 6 nights, so in a tougher physical spot. They proceeded to blow out the Suns 112-88 with an average lead of +18.4 points throughout. That’s as dominant of a performance as you can get. Well, today’s situation is a lot different. OKC has had 2 full days off to rest and practice, as they prepare for this important game (remember, they are chasing Phoenix in the standings). By comparison, the Suns are on b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4th in 6th, with all 4 games being on the road. In addition, they played a really close game @ NO last night, barely losing to the Pellies. In the process, Dragic and Bledsoe logged 36 and 37 minutes respectively. Going up against an explosive Westbrook today could be very difficult for these guys. Fatigue could very well be a major issue tonight for the Suns. Playing their last road-game of the trip prior to heading home on New Year’s Eve is not an easy spot to play in. Facing a fully-healthy and well rested OKC team just makes it that much more difficult. Durant is back for OKC, it’s a great spot to fade the Suns, and most importantly, Thunder is a very difficult matchup for this small, guard-oriented Phoenix team. Lay the points with confidence.
RIVER CITY SHARPS
Our computer modeling has the Redbirds winning this one by 15+, so we really like Illinois State in this spot. Consider that Indiana St. is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and the Redbirds are 5-1 against the number in their last six games. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and this appears to be a long day for the Sycamores, who are clearly experiencing a significant drop-off this season. As a bonus (we are not playing this, but food for thought)…The OVER has hit in 15 of the last 20 matchups between these two teams! The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ILLINOIS STATE (-10)
Our computer modeling has the Redbirds winning this one by 15+, so we really like Illinois State in this spot. Consider that Indiana St. is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and the Redbirds are 5-1 against the number in their last six games. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and this appears to be a long day for the Sycamores, who are clearly experiencing a significant drop-off this season. As a bonus (we are not playing this, but food for thought)…The OVER has hit in 15 of the last 20 matchups between these two teams! The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ILLINOIS STATE (-10)
DAVE COKIN
CBB (743) GEORGIA at (744) KANSAS STATE
2* Premium Best Bet: (744) KANSAS STATE -2.5
My first take when viewing the numbers for Wednesday’s college basketball slate was that the line on this Georgia/Kansas State game was a little on the peculiar side. After all, Georgia has rolled to an impressive 7-3 start, while the Wildcats are 7-5 and haven’t exactly been flashing much positive form.
It always interests me when I see a betting line that I consider to be “off”. But rather than take the stance that the books have made a mistake, which I consider to be kind of a dumb conclusion, my sense is that I want to find out what they’re seeing that I’m not.
The way this game is lined, I can see the numbers guys jumping on what they will perceive as value on the underdog. The game power rates close to pick ‘em, and Kansas State has not been anything close to a go with team.
Upon further investigation, while I didn’t come up with any math to support this spread, I did garner what I felt to be some decent information on the Kansas State side. The Wildcats just suffered what they believe is an embarrassing loss to Texas Southern. K-State roared out to a big early lead, had another 12-0 run later and still managed to lose on its home court to a team they’re simply not supposed to lose to.
Post-game commentary from the coach and some players indicates they’re a very frustrated entry right now. Lots of talk about needing better effort and energy. I can tell you from watching this team play a couple times this season that they need to put some real movement into their motion offense, as there’s been lots of standing around. Also, as I noted in some Twitter observations a few games back, the Wildcats need to grow a pair. I think they’ve been a very soft team thus far that has gotten outworked on a regular basis. Thus, the lousy record and rotten recent form.
Kansas State should be better than they’ve been. This is not a powerhouse by any means, but the Wildcats should at least be pretty good. I’m going to bank on them coming out with a sense of real purpose here. If they do, they can get themselves a win against a Georgia team that hasn’t been as potent when traveling away from Athens. If they don’t and the Wildcats lose again, I can get the money back playing against them in conference play. So call it a one-shot play for me on the favorite to deliver a big effort that produces a positive result. I’ll lay it here with Kansas State.
CBB (743) GEORGIA at (744) KANSAS STATE
2* Premium Best Bet: (744) KANSAS STATE -2.5
My first take when viewing the numbers for Wednesday’s college basketball slate was that the line on this Georgia/Kansas State game was a little on the peculiar side. After all, Georgia has rolled to an impressive 7-3 start, while the Wildcats are 7-5 and haven’t exactly been flashing much positive form.
It always interests me when I see a betting line that I consider to be “off”. But rather than take the stance that the books have made a mistake, which I consider to be kind of a dumb conclusion, my sense is that I want to find out what they’re seeing that I’m not.
The way this game is lined, I can see the numbers guys jumping on what they will perceive as value on the underdog. The game power rates close to pick ‘em, and Kansas State has not been anything close to a go with team.
Upon further investigation, while I didn’t come up with any math to support this spread, I did garner what I felt to be some decent information on the Kansas State side. The Wildcats just suffered what they believe is an embarrassing loss to Texas Southern. K-State roared out to a big early lead, had another 12-0 run later and still managed to lose on its home court to a team they’re simply not supposed to lose to.
Post-game commentary from the coach and some players indicates they’re a very frustrated entry right now. Lots of talk about needing better effort and energy. I can tell you from watching this team play a couple times this season that they need to put some real movement into their motion offense, as there’s been lots of standing around. Also, as I noted in some Twitter observations a few games back, the Wildcats need to grow a pair. I think they’ve been a very soft team thus far that has gotten outworked on a regular basis. Thus, the lousy record and rotten recent form.
Kansas State should be better than they’ve been. This is not a powerhouse by any means, but the Wildcats should at least be pretty good. I’m going to bank on them coming out with a sense of real purpose here. If they do, they can get themselves a win against a Georgia team that hasn’t been as potent when traveling away from Athens. If they don’t and the Wildcats lose again, I can get the money back playing against them in conference play. So call it a one-shot play for me on the favorite to deliver a big effort that produces a positive result. I’ll lay it here with Kansas State.
HARRY BONDI
College Football Free Pick
Orange Bowl
GEORGIA TECH (+6.5) over Mississippi State
8 p.m. ET
We’ll gladly take the points with a Georgia Tech offense that not only averages 40 points per game on the road, but also has dominated time of possession this season. The Yellow Jackets have also cashed in five out of six times this year when listed as the underdog and have gone 7-1 ATS against winning teams. We’re also not sure how motivated the Bulldogs will be here tonight, considering they were the No. 1 team in the country for a good portion of the season. Now, after losing any chance at a playoff spot with a loss to Alabama and then getting drilled by rival Ole Miss in the biggest Egg Bowl in history, they limp into this game losers of two of their last three games. Take the points!
College Football Free Pick
Orange Bowl
GEORGIA TECH (+6.5) over Mississippi State
8 p.m. ET
We’ll gladly take the points with a Georgia Tech offense that not only averages 40 points per game on the road, but also has dominated time of possession this season. The Yellow Jackets have also cashed in five out of six times this year when listed as the underdog and have gone 7-1 ATS against winning teams. We’re also not sure how motivated the Bulldogs will be here tonight, considering they were the No. 1 team in the country for a good portion of the season. Now, after losing any chance at a playoff spot with a loss to Alabama and then getting drilled by rival Ole Miss in the biggest Egg Bowl in history, they limp into this game losers of two of their last three games. Take the points!
