MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- We've got three of the top-7 earners in baseball starting games tonight. No, not earners salary-wise, but earners who have produced the most return-on-investment for bettors. All three look like good candidates to win tonight, but only two of them are playable as the best pitcher in the game is once again out of our price range.
That best pitcher of course is Clayton Kershaw (15-2, 1.82 ERA), who the Dodgers have gone 17-4 behind this season, but because his price is usually -190 or above, his losses have been magnified to the point it takes two wins with him to make up for one loss. Still, he comes at No. 7 on the list of most profitable starters at +9.8 units.
The Dodgers have won 14 of his last 15 starts, but along with the high -220 price on the road at Arizona, there might be one more reason to be cautious with Kershaw today. His worst outing of the season came on May 17 at Arizona when he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up seven earned runs. It's his only start this season that he's given up more than three runs.
Kershaw is long removed from that stretch, which was only his third start after missing the entire month of April, but it's enough of a scare tactic to really hold the brakes with a betting strategy that involves the Dodgers tonight.
For those run-line players who couldn't care less what the game price is on great pitchers because of getting a good price laying -1.5 runs, consider that in his only start against Arizona since they roughed him up, the Dodgers won 4-3 at Dodger Stadium on June 13. He's also been involved in four one-run games over his last five starts coming in. If looking at Arizona +1.5 tonight, the South Point will give you +110.
Hughes and Alvarez Offer Great Plus-Money Tonight
The top earner in baseball has been Minnesota's Phil Hughes (14-8, 3.65) with +11.7 units of profit if wagering on him in every start. The Twins have gone 17-9 behind him this season, but because he doesn't have the metrics as some of the top pitchers and his team already has one of the lowest team ratings, he rarely finds himself as the favorite which has allowed him to pile up plus-money wins all season.
Hughes has been an underdog in nine of his last 11 outings and he comes in on this stretch of the season where he's won his last four starts allowing only one earned run in each. In his last three starts, he's taken down some very good teams, like beating Corey Kluber and Cleveland on Thursday, beating the red-hot Royals on Aug. 16 and then knocking off the A's on Aug. 10. Between those three starts, bettors took home +395 in profits if siding with Hughes.
Hughes' plight is so bad on paper that he's not even favored against Liam Hendricks tonight in Kansas City. Hendricks hasn't pitched in the majors since June 20 and has started 23 Triple-A games (12-2, 2.45) between Buffalo and Omaha, and yet he still comes in as a -115 favorite over Hughes.
Over in Anaheim tonight we have a similar situation where the team rating for the Angels far exceeds what the Marlins have to offer despite a lopsided pitching match-up. On one side we have Hector Santiago, who the Angels have lost four straight behind, as a -145 favorite over Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57), who comes in tied for second as the most profitable starter in baseball at +11.2 units.
All Alvarez does is win. He's won his last four starts and the Marlins have won 14 of his last 16 starts. The beautiful thing about him is that he's been either pick 'em or an underdog in 12 of those last 16 starts. The Angels have a lineup that can make any good pitcher look bad, but with a four-game series starting tomorrow against the A's, the Marlins might be able to catch the Angels in a vulnerable moment. Alvarez has huge value tonight.
Is Wainwright Alright?
What's going on with Adam Wainwright? Before the All-Star break he had an ERA of 1.76. Since then he's gone 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA, allowing three runs or more in five of his seven starts, something he did only twice over his first 18 starts. He comes in as a -120 favorite at Pittsburgh in this afternoon's rubber match, a number that started at -130 in the overnight line.
Despite the Cardinals alternating wins and losses in each of his last seven starts and his higher-than-normal walk rate (3.48 walks per nine innings), he's still going for an NL-leading 16th win of the season and the Pirates have been a team he seems to have figured out. He hasn't allowed a run to them in his last two starts this season and is 4-1 with a 0.80 ERA in his last six starts overall against them, including the postseason.
Last season we kind of saw Wainwright go into a late August funk by allowing 16 runs over a two start stretch and in his next outing he faced Pittsburgh and beat them 5-0. The Cardinals aren't doing anything special at the plate lately, but Wainwright is cheaper than we've seen him since being -125 at Milwaukee in early July, so he looks like a decent play today and the Pirates seem to be his get-well tonic.
Wednesday selections:
Cardinals (Wainwright) -120 at Pirates
Twins (Hughes) +105 at Kansas City
Marlins (Alvarez) +135 at Angels
Padres (Despaigne) +130 vs. Brewers
