ope:
WINNING POINTS PICK OF DAY
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
FLORIDA (Jo. Johnson) +115 over ATLANTA (Hampton)
We took a bad beat with the Marlins last night, when
the Braves came up with a four run 9th inning. But
we're jumping right back in with the visitor tonight,
as they look to even the series. Josh Johnson has had
a nice run since rejoining the team (+$505, 3.51 ERA
in 8 stats) and Atlanta has lost money vs. righties
(-$900) and in night games at home (-$935). Mike
Hampton has been far less imposing since coming
back last month (6.47 ERA in six starts), and he's
in against a Florida team that has turned a profit
on the road this year (+$830).
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
FLORIDA (Jo. Johnson) +115 over ATLANTA (Hampton)
We took a bad beat with the Marlins last night, when
the Braves came up with a four run 9th inning. But
we're jumping right back in with the visitor tonight,
as they look to even the series. Josh Johnson has had
a nice run since rejoining the team (+$505, 3.51 ERA
in 8 stats) and Atlanta has lost money vs. righties
(-$900) and in night games at home (-$935). Mike
Hampton has been far less imposing since coming
back last month (6.47 ERA in six starts), and he's
in against a Florida team that has turned a profit
on the road this year (+$830).
Hot Lines
Wednesday's best MLB bets
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-115, 10 1/2)
Amazingly in late August the two American League powerhouses are fighting for their playoffs lives with pitching cast-offs who started the year elsewhere. The soft-tossing 37 year-old Paul Byrd (8-11, 4.61) makes his third start for the Red Sox but his unorthodox, deliberate delivery is something that has not fooled the AARP Bronx Bombers this season. In only 12 innings of work against Byrd, the Yanks have six homers, 14 hits, and scored nine runs.
As for the bloated, boozy Sidney Ponson, after a solid month in pinstripes he has been fifth starter quality and showed it against the Red Sox at the end of July - four innings, 10 hits, and seven earned runs. Considering the two teams knocked out 24 hits yesterday and used 11 pitchers, look for another hit parade in New York as they combine for at least 12 runs by the seventh inning. As for a hunch on the richest man on the diamond leaving seven runners on base yesterday, A-Rod threw in Madonna's song Lucky Star last night and comes out more relaxed today.
Pick: Over
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-166, 8 1/2)
To start the moneyline value on Cleveland (+160) in this contest jumped off the page. The Tribe is the hottest team in baseball having won nine straight with the majority of the damage done on the road. A young squad marred in a battling slump for the first 120 games of the season, they've found a groove and seem to be playing with the pressure of a sandlot game. As for their starter tonight, Fausto Carmona (6-5, 4.40), after a couple stints on the Disabled List earlier in the season he's trying to recapture the magic he displayed last year and looked sharp in his last start in hitter-friendly Texas, shutting out the Rangers over six innings. And in two starts against Detroit this season, Carmona is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and only walked two in 13 innings.
Speaking of the Tigers, the squad of veteran sluggers and average pitchers has been a major disappointment all season and seems to be counting down the days until winter vacation. While Justin Verlander (4.42, 10-13) has looked better lately, he's struggled mightily against the Cleveland this season in four starts (1-3, 5.84, and 12 walks in 24 innings). The Tribe continues to play with playoff emotion tonight and will be psyched to bring this streak to 10.
Pick: Indians
Wednesday's best MLB bets
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-115, 10 1/2)
Amazingly in late August the two American League powerhouses are fighting for their playoffs lives with pitching cast-offs who started the year elsewhere. The soft-tossing 37 year-old Paul Byrd (8-11, 4.61) makes his third start for the Red Sox but his unorthodox, deliberate delivery is something that has not fooled the AARP Bronx Bombers this season. In only 12 innings of work against Byrd, the Yanks have six homers, 14 hits, and scored nine runs.
As for the bloated, boozy Sidney Ponson, after a solid month in pinstripes he has been fifth starter quality and showed it against the Red Sox at the end of July - four innings, 10 hits, and seven earned runs. Considering the two teams knocked out 24 hits yesterday and used 11 pitchers, look for another hit parade in New York as they combine for at least 12 runs by the seventh inning. As for a hunch on the richest man on the diamond leaving seven runners on base yesterday, A-Rod threw in Madonna's song Lucky Star last night and comes out more relaxed today.
Pick: Over
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-166, 8 1/2)
To start the moneyline value on Cleveland (+160) in this contest jumped off the page. The Tribe is the hottest team in baseball having won nine straight with the majority of the damage done on the road. A young squad marred in a battling slump for the first 120 games of the season, they've found a groove and seem to be playing with the pressure of a sandlot game. As for their starter tonight, Fausto Carmona (6-5, 4.40), after a couple stints on the Disabled List earlier in the season he's trying to recapture the magic he displayed last year and looked sharp in his last start in hitter-friendly Texas, shutting out the Rangers over six innings. And in two starts against Detroit this season, Carmona is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and only walked two in 13 innings.
Speaking of the Tigers, the squad of veteran sluggers and average pitchers has been a major disappointment all season and seems to be counting down the days until winter vacation. While Justin Verlander (4.42, 10-13) has looked better lately, he's struggled mightily against the Cleveland this season in four starts (1-3, 5.84, and 12 walks in 24 innings). The Tribe continues to play with playoff emotion tonight and will be psyched to bring this streak to 10.
Pick: Indians
Dave Malinsky
SAN DIEGO PADRES (Baek)+105 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Johnson)
4* SAN DIEGO PADRES Run Line +1.5 runs +105 vs Arizona @ 3:35 PM ET - Baek vs Johnson - The Arizona Diamondbacks are 9th in the N.L. in runs scored, have managed only two runs in losing each of the first two games of this series, and if we attach a -1.5 to their ledger they are 25-42 on the road and 52-80 overall. Yet the oddsmakers are saying that this afternoon they have better than a 50-50 chance to win by multiple runs at the most difficult site in the game to score runs. Welcome to pennant race pricing. The ability to take San Diego as a “Plus Plus” has us in the mood for a matinee. Sure, Randy Johnson is on a nice run. But the pitcher alone can not sustain all of this price – the Diamondbacks are 8-16 as -1.5 in his starts, including a current 1-4 slide while he has been at the top of his game. And yes, Cha Seung Baek has that most unusual distribution, working to a 3.55 tune as a starter on the road in a Padre uniform, as opposed to a 5.65 when he throws the first pitch of a game here in Petco. But while the market downgrades him for that, we actually see it as a Play On variable. That home/away gap is going to go away, and note that in his last Petco outing he matched Cole Hamels nearly pitch for pitch in a tough 2-1 loss to the Phillies, when he had more strikeouts than hits allowed (he has done that in each of his last two starts), and only gave up one earned run. And because of last night’s big working margin, all key bullpen arms are rested and ready behind him. When a team is having the kind of disappointing season that the Padres are, a series like this can create a real spark – it gives them a chance to play spoiler, a motivation that the modern athlete seems to relish. They have controlled this series to a 13-4 tune so far, and while another outright win would not be a surprise, the best value for our money is to challenge the Arizona offense to get any kind of easy win.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (Baek)+105 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Johnson)
4* SAN DIEGO PADRES Run Line +1.5 runs +105 vs Arizona @ 3:35 PM ET - Baek vs Johnson - The Arizona Diamondbacks are 9th in the N.L. in runs scored, have managed only two runs in losing each of the first two games of this series, and if we attach a -1.5 to their ledger they are 25-42 on the road and 52-80 overall. Yet the oddsmakers are saying that this afternoon they have better than a 50-50 chance to win by multiple runs at the most difficult site in the game to score runs. Welcome to pennant race pricing. The ability to take San Diego as a “Plus Plus” has us in the mood for a matinee. Sure, Randy Johnson is on a nice run. But the pitcher alone can not sustain all of this price – the Diamondbacks are 8-16 as -1.5 in his starts, including a current 1-4 slide while he has been at the top of his game. And yes, Cha Seung Baek has that most unusual distribution, working to a 3.55 tune as a starter on the road in a Padre uniform, as opposed to a 5.65 when he throws the first pitch of a game here in Petco. But while the market downgrades him for that, we actually see it as a Play On variable. That home/away gap is going to go away, and note that in his last Petco outing he matched Cole Hamels nearly pitch for pitch in a tough 2-1 loss to the Phillies, when he had more strikeouts than hits allowed (he has done that in each of his last two starts), and only gave up one earned run. And because of last night’s big working margin, all key bullpen arms are rested and ready behind him. When a team is having the kind of disappointing season that the Padres are, a series like this can create a real spark – it gives them a chance to play spoiler, a motivation that the modern athlete seems to relish. They have controlled this series to a 13-4 tune so far, and while another outright win would not be a surprise, the best value for our money is to challenge the Arizona offense to get any kind of easy win.
Dave Tuley,
Tuesday was a back-and-forth day as I went 1-2 with my MLB umpire totals, but I was saved with two outright underdogs winners with the Red Sox +145 vs. Yankees and the Blue Jays +105 vs. Rays.
With a full card on Wednesday, I have 4 MLB umpire totals and 4 underdogs (some are real big longshots but I can't resist the prices):
Cubs-Pirates OVER 10 (home-plate ump Tim Tschida is 17-10 with the over so far this season)
Marlins-Braves UNDER 9.5 (Marty Foster is 16-9 with the under)
Twins-Mariners UNDER 9 (Paul Nauert is 16-11 with the under)
Rangers-Royals UNDER 10.5 (Paul Emmel is 17-9 with the under)
Phillies +150 vs. Mets
Rockies +220 vs. Giants
Orioles +175 vs. White Sox
Indians +160 vs. Tigers
Tuesday was a back-and-forth day as I went 1-2 with my MLB umpire totals, but I was saved with two outright underdogs winners with the Red Sox +145 vs. Yankees and the Blue Jays +105 vs. Rays.
With a full card on Wednesday, I have 4 MLB umpire totals and 4 underdogs (some are real big longshots but I can't resist the prices):
Cubs-Pirates OVER 10 (home-plate ump Tim Tschida is 17-10 with the over so far this season)
Marlins-Braves UNDER 9.5 (Marty Foster is 16-9 with the under)
Twins-Mariners UNDER 9 (Paul Nauert is 16-11 with the under)
Rangers-Royals UNDER 10.5 (Paul Emmel is 17-9 with the under)
Phillies +150 vs. Mets
Rockies +220 vs. Giants
Orioles +175 vs. White Sox
Indians +160 vs. Tigers
