Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 14, 2013
Boston @ TORONTO
Boston -1½ +116 over TORONTO
Jon Lester has seen a skills decline over the past couple of years but he’s still a solid major league starter and he’s been a bit sharper lately. Lester has 26 K’s and just four walks over his last 25 frames, covering four starts. He also has a 13-0 win over these Blue Jays back in April at the Rogers Center and a 5-0 win over Toronto back at Fenway in early May. Lester has had great success against these Blue Jays and suddenly Toronto’s bats have gone cold since Colby Rasmus was injured. Toronto has scored just three runs in two games and is batting .191 since Rasmus - who was hitting .331 since the beginning of July - got hurt. To win here, the Jays are going to have to score a lot of runs because Esmil Rogers can’t get anyone out these days.
The Blue Jays have already allowed a major-league worst 72 runs in August and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here. Esmil Rogers has been getting absolutely destroyed over his past few starts. Rogers has been tagged for 27 hits and 20 runs over his past 12.1 innings. He’s also been taken yard eight times over his past 24.2 innings and that’s because he’s not throwing strikes with his off-speed stuff and his fastballs have been right down Broadway. Esmil Rogers is shell shocked. His confidence is shot and we can almost assure you that he’s terrified of taking the mound today. The Jays have lost each of Rogers’ last five starts by scores of 14-6, 7-3, 9-4, 8-3 and 8-5. Two of those losses occurred against the weak hitting A’s. What’s in store for Rogers here against this powerful lineup is not going to be pretty. Red Sox in a route.
Our Pick
Boston -1½ +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)
Cleveland @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +103 over Cleveland
1:10 PM EST. The 22nd pick in the 2009 draft, Kyle Gibson has had a rough first go-round in the majors. But it's also his first full year back from Tommy John Surgery and he’s getting better. Mechanically, Gibson is having far more trouble finding the strike zone and inducing K's than he did in the minors. However, the ugly ERA is partially the result of unlucky hit, strand and hr/9 rates. At 6'6", Gibson pitches down to hitters, and has done a nice job inducing groundballs. It’s quite possible that Gibson could become Minnesota's best pitcher down the stretch because he has the best raw stuff of any current Twins' starter. His results so far have been disappointing but the Twins usually win when Gibson takes the mound. In fact, Minnesota has won four of Gibson’s last five starts and they have scored 10, 10, 6 and 7 runs in those wins. Overall the Twinkies have won six of 10 and they probably shouldn’t be a dog here against Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco has ridden the Triple-A shuttle in 2013, failing to stick with Cleveland each time he has been called up. He made six early-season starts, with a nightmarish 17%/83% quality start/disaster start split. Carrasco has been proven hittable, with his 9.10 ERA and 2.09 WHIP as a starter fueled by poor control/command hit%/strand% misfortune and an inability to suppress power. He averaged fewer than five innings in those six starts, spanning only 29 IP. The Indians have lost six of Carrasco’s seven starts. He hasn’t started a game since July 6, when the Tigers got to him for 10 hits and seven runs in 3.2 innings. In his 28.2 innings as a starter over six games, Carrasco has allowed 47 hits, 29 earned runs, walked 13 and struck out 15. Carrasco is starting today only because Scott Kazmir has a dead arm and needs time to recover. Until Carrasco proves that he can get people out and win games at this level, he’s too big a risk as the chalk. That applies here.
Our Pick
MINNESOTA +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
Milwaukee @ TEXAS
Milwaukee +210 over TEXAS
Matt Garza is not a pitcher you want to lay a tag like this with, especially against a hot-hitting team like the Brewers. Garza is coming off back-to-back games against the weak-hitting A’s and Astros in which he surrendered four runs in each. Garza faced 62 batters over his last two games and only induced 15 groundball outs against 32 fly-ball outs and that’s a big warning sign heading into this one at Rangers Ballpark. Garza has always been prone to giving up the long ball and this season is no different. In his four starts since joining the Rangers he’s been taken yard four times and that makes him far too big a risk at this price. Matt Garza is not in the best form right now and that presents us with this nice overlay opportunity.
The Brewers are playing their best ball of the year with three wins in their past four games and 15 wins over their past 26. They came in here last night and took the opener 5-1 but that is a flattering score for the Rangers because Milwaukee had plenty of chances to score more than five. Rookie Tyler Thornburg will make his 10th appearance of the season but just his third start. In his previous two starts, Thornburg did not allow an earned run over 12 innings. He also struck out 10 batters and induced 50% groundballs. Thornburg’s success as a starter could easily continue here because the Rangers have never seen him and he utilizes his three-pitch mix well. Thornburg features a plus fastball sitting in the low-to-mid 90s up to 97, a power curve, and a change-up. Both his fastball and curve are used as strikeout pitches and he throws them with ease in any count. The Brewers are a relaxed group that are finally having some fun coming to the park and that makes them a dangerous group. Big overlay here that we’re not about to miss.
Our Pick
Milwaukee +210 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.20)
San Diego @ COLORADO
San Diego/COLORADO over 9½ -106
These two combined to score 16 runs in the opener of this series and they followed that up with 12 runs last night. There’s nothing suggesting anything different here. Jorge De La Rosa’s misleading numbers have this total at a beatable number. Incredibly, De La Rosa is 7-1 at Coors Field with a 2.59 ERA. Not only is that a mirage but it’s completely unsustainable. Before missing almost all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jorge de la Rosa fell into the category of pitchers who were "one skill away" from turning the corner and becoming a true asset. In De La Rosa's case it was control. So far this season, the lefty has limited walks and improved surface results have followed but his skills still raise plenty of questions. So, while De La Rosa’s control has noticeably improved, it’s at the expense of strikeouts.De la Rosa's improved ERA is a direct product of a lucky 80% strand rate and 91% strand rate over his past four starts. Below the surface, a marginal strikeout rate, an historically low HR/9 rate and a reliance on stranding base runners raise questions about his ability to maintain the level of performance he's displayed so far. There is a real potential for De La Rosa’s final few starts to turn ugly, especially at home where he has outpitched his xERA by over three runs. Jorge De La Rosa is an implosion waiting to happen.
Andrew Cashner’s skills are getting progressively worse as the season winds down. Cashner has walked 12 batters over his past 24 innings and his groundball rate has gone from 51% on the year down to 38% over his past five starts. In two of his last three starts, covering a combined 11 innings, Cashner walked nine batters. Cashner’s skills erode away from Petco Park and this isn’t the place to turn things around. In fact, the last time Cashner pitched at Coors Field, he allowed seven runs in two innings before being yanked. The Rockies have scored 38 times in five games on this current home stand and they figure to do more damage here. Look for at least one and perhaps both of these teams to put up a crooked number, sending this one well over the number.
Our Pick
San Diego/COLORADO over 9½ -106
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.98 |
| Last 30 Days | 43 | 26 | 0.00 | +54.29 |
| Season to Date | 181 | 173 | 0.00 | +85.41 |
