Joe Gavazzi
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
MLB
5% LA Angels (-1 ½ R/+130)
4% Oakland A’s (-105)
4% Toronto Blue Jays (-1 ½ R/+110)
4% Arizona D’Backs (EVEN)
3% Minnesota Twins (+120)
3% Miami Marlins (+170)
3% Detroit Tigers (+105)
Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) (-1 ½ R/+110) at Chicago White Sox (Danks) 8:10 ET
The Blue Jays and White Sox match up in the 3rd game of this early week set. The White Sox took a 4-2 victory on Monday night with 4 unearned runs. The Blue Jays came back for a 2-1 victory Tuesday night to even the series. The final score of this game will look nothing like either of the first 2. In fact, there may be more runs scored in the first inning than each of the first two games combined. Each of the starters is horrendous. But, the Blue Jays No. 1 OPS of .783 is miles apart from the last rated OPS of the White Sox at .653.
All 15 teams in the American League are playing between .453 and .593 baseball. The White Sox have the 14th ranked record at 37-44. After an 8-game slide, they have responded with a 9-6 record. The regression is coming! Sending Danks to the mound is a sure way to begin that slide. Danks was pitching so poorly that he was skipped for a turn in the rotation. His .843 OPS is the worst in the league. In 9 starts against Toronto, Danks has a 6.23 ERA. With the Blue Jays the best in the business against south paws, look for them to get a healthy piece of Danks once again tonight.
Toronto is locked into a 4-team race for AL East superiority with NYY, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay separated by only 2 ½ games. The Blue Jays understand that getting victories against the weak links of the league are essential, if they wish to remain competitive. The big Blue Jay bats were on fire during an 18-6 recent run. They have since faded with a 3-6 slide. Expect them to emerge against lefthander, Danks, tonight. For the season, Toronto has a .295 BA vs. lefthanders and a .841 OPS vs. south paws. Hutchison has been horrible on the road this year. In 9 starts on the road, Hutchison has a 9.00 ERA with a 1.02 OPS against and a 2.00 road WHIP. Those would normally be pure PLAY AGAINST numbers, except that Toronto has won 5 of those 9 starts due to their incredible run support.
Toronto struggled to split the first 2 games of this series, averaging just 2 RPG against quality lefties, Sale and Quintana. But, in this 3rd game, the White Sox step way down in class, offering Danks as what will surely be a sacrificial lamb! We make this a run line play, noting that 34 of 44 (77%) Toronto victories have come by 2 or more runs, including 15 of 18 road wins, that’s 83%! Make this your Run Line Massacre of the Night!
LA Angels (Shoemaker) (-1 ½ R/+130) at Colorado Rockies (Rusin) 8:40 ET
The Angels and Rockies match up in game 2 of this early week set with LAA looking for the sweep. Last night, the Angels continued their torrid pace with a 10-2 victory against the outmanned Rockies’ pitching staff. Look for more of the same tonight, as the Angels have dominated this series and are playing with great offensive momentum against a Colorado team who has struggled both of late, as well as in Interleague play.
The Rockies have shown signs of their usual offensive prowess in spurts this season. But, their recent 8-19 slide has dropped them to 35-48 with the 4th worst record in MLB. Their 17-23 home record is little better. Their rotation is again getting torched with a 5.11 ERA and they are the worst team in Interleague play in MLB with a record of 3-21, including 1-9 this season. Against the hot bats of the Angels, Rusin won’t last long. He has a 1.61 WHIP for the year with a .350 BAA in his most recent 5 starts.
With last night’s 10-2 victory, the Angels have won 8 consecutive games against the Rockies. They are also 10-2 at this site, averaging 8 RPG with 30 HRs. If their current form continues, those numbers will be easy to match. The Angels are now on a 9-2 run, but remain motivated as they trail Houston by 2.5 games for the divisional lead. In 4 consecutive recent wins, the Angels have pounded out 43 runs and 8 HRs. The Angels have backed Shoemaker in 7 road starts, where they have a 6-1 record. Shoemaker has helped his cause on the road with a 1.16 road WHIP.
As hot as the Angels have been, we must seriously consider them on the run line. In 20 road victories for LAA, 17 of them (85%) have come by 2 or more runs.
This is a game that clearly features two teams going in opposite directions. The Angels have totally dominated the Rockies in their recent series and are totally crushing the ball right now. The Rockies are struggling, as is their starter today, Rusin, and their pitching is the worst in MLB with a .800 OPS. In a game that could be decided by the end of the first inning, we are eager to lay the runs and take the money in this total momentum mismatch.
Oakland A’s (Kazmir) (-105) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET
This TPM (Total Pitching Mismatch) favors the Oakland A’s, who are 18-6 in this series, after beating the Bronx Bombers 4-3 in the 10th last night! Sabathia, as I have told you all year, is well past his expiration date. The Yankees have won just 6 of his 16 starts, in which he has a 5.59 ERA. In 6 home starts, Sabathia has lasted just 29 2/3 IP, allowing 29 runs on 42 hits for an 8.49 ERA and 1.55 home WHIP. Those are all pure PLAY AGAINST numbers. For Oakland, Kazmir has a 2.56 ERA for the season. In 5 recent starts, Kazmir is 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA. In this TPM, we side with Oakland/Kazmir over NYY/Sabathia.
Miami Marlins (Koehler) at Boston Red Sox (Porcello) (-180) 7:10 ET
Well aware that the Bo Sox have won 6 straight against Miami after last night’s 4-3 victory. In addition, the Red Sox are on a 7-2 surge, averaging 5.4 RPG. Winners of 3 straight, they face a Miami team who has lost 3 straight and continues to play without Stanton, the best offensive force in the league. But, it is a Big Dog TPM (Total Pitching Mismatch) with tonight’s starters. Porcello has a 6.08 ERA for the season, including his last 8 starts, where he is 0-7 with a 8.18 ERA. It got no better in his last start against Toronto, where he was lit up for 7 runs in 2 IP of an 11-2 loss. Far prefer the slants of the blue collar, Koehler, whose 3 recent starts have produced a 1.80 ERA.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Hellickson) at Texas Rangers (Harrison) (-110) 8:05 ET
Make the Texas Rangers your False Favorite of the Day. After a 29-15 run, the Rangers have gone 4-12, including 7 straight losses on this field. Now, they send Harrison to the mound, who has not pitched in an MLB game in 14 months, following spinal fusion, his 3rd back surgery. If his rehab starts are any indication, he is far from ready for primetime. Those starts yielded a 1-3 record with a 6.23 ERA. Hellickson is starting after one of his best outings of the year, in which he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 IP of an 8-1 victory vs. Colorado. Fly in the ointment is the Arizona mental makeup as they go for the 13th time to reach the .500 mark.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
MLB
5% LA Angels (-1 ½ R/+130)
4% Oakland A’s (-105)
4% Toronto Blue Jays (-1 ½ R/+110)
4% Arizona D’Backs (EVEN)
3% Minnesota Twins (+120)
3% Miami Marlins (+170)
3% Detroit Tigers (+105)
Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) (-1 ½ R/+110) at Chicago White Sox (Danks) 8:10 ET
The Blue Jays and White Sox match up in the 3rd game of this early week set. The White Sox took a 4-2 victory on Monday night with 4 unearned runs. The Blue Jays came back for a 2-1 victory Tuesday night to even the series. The final score of this game will look nothing like either of the first 2. In fact, there may be more runs scored in the first inning than each of the first two games combined. Each of the starters is horrendous. But, the Blue Jays No. 1 OPS of .783 is miles apart from the last rated OPS of the White Sox at .653.
All 15 teams in the American League are playing between .453 and .593 baseball. The White Sox have the 14th ranked record at 37-44. After an 8-game slide, they have responded with a 9-6 record. The regression is coming! Sending Danks to the mound is a sure way to begin that slide. Danks was pitching so poorly that he was skipped for a turn in the rotation. His .843 OPS is the worst in the league. In 9 starts against Toronto, Danks has a 6.23 ERA. With the Blue Jays the best in the business against south paws, look for them to get a healthy piece of Danks once again tonight.
Toronto is locked into a 4-team race for AL East superiority with NYY, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay separated by only 2 ½ games. The Blue Jays understand that getting victories against the weak links of the league are essential, if they wish to remain competitive. The big Blue Jay bats were on fire during an 18-6 recent run. They have since faded with a 3-6 slide. Expect them to emerge against lefthander, Danks, tonight. For the season, Toronto has a .295 BA vs. lefthanders and a .841 OPS vs. south paws. Hutchison has been horrible on the road this year. In 9 starts on the road, Hutchison has a 9.00 ERA with a 1.02 OPS against and a 2.00 road WHIP. Those would normally be pure PLAY AGAINST numbers, except that Toronto has won 5 of those 9 starts due to their incredible run support.
Toronto struggled to split the first 2 games of this series, averaging just 2 RPG against quality lefties, Sale and Quintana. But, in this 3rd game, the White Sox step way down in class, offering Danks as what will surely be a sacrificial lamb! We make this a run line play, noting that 34 of 44 (77%) Toronto victories have come by 2 or more runs, including 15 of 18 road wins, that’s 83%! Make this your Run Line Massacre of the Night!
LA Angels (Shoemaker) (-1 ½ R/+130) at Colorado Rockies (Rusin) 8:40 ET
The Angels and Rockies match up in game 2 of this early week set with LAA looking for the sweep. Last night, the Angels continued their torrid pace with a 10-2 victory against the outmanned Rockies’ pitching staff. Look for more of the same tonight, as the Angels have dominated this series and are playing with great offensive momentum against a Colorado team who has struggled both of late, as well as in Interleague play.
The Rockies have shown signs of their usual offensive prowess in spurts this season. But, their recent 8-19 slide has dropped them to 35-48 with the 4th worst record in MLB. Their 17-23 home record is little better. Their rotation is again getting torched with a 5.11 ERA and they are the worst team in Interleague play in MLB with a record of 3-21, including 1-9 this season. Against the hot bats of the Angels, Rusin won’t last long. He has a 1.61 WHIP for the year with a .350 BAA in his most recent 5 starts.
With last night’s 10-2 victory, the Angels have won 8 consecutive games against the Rockies. They are also 10-2 at this site, averaging 8 RPG with 30 HRs. If their current form continues, those numbers will be easy to match. The Angels are now on a 9-2 run, but remain motivated as they trail Houston by 2.5 games for the divisional lead. In 4 consecutive recent wins, the Angels have pounded out 43 runs and 8 HRs. The Angels have backed Shoemaker in 7 road starts, where they have a 6-1 record. Shoemaker has helped his cause on the road with a 1.16 road WHIP.
As hot as the Angels have been, we must seriously consider them on the run line. In 20 road victories for LAA, 17 of them (85%) have come by 2 or more runs.
This is a game that clearly features two teams going in opposite directions. The Angels have totally dominated the Rockies in their recent series and are totally crushing the ball right now. The Rockies are struggling, as is their starter today, Rusin, and their pitching is the worst in MLB with a .800 OPS. In a game that could be decided by the end of the first inning, we are eager to lay the runs and take the money in this total momentum mismatch.
Oakland A’s (Kazmir) (-105) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 ET
This TPM (Total Pitching Mismatch) favors the Oakland A’s, who are 18-6 in this series, after beating the Bronx Bombers 4-3 in the 10th last night! Sabathia, as I have told you all year, is well past his expiration date. The Yankees have won just 6 of his 16 starts, in which he has a 5.59 ERA. In 6 home starts, Sabathia has lasted just 29 2/3 IP, allowing 29 runs on 42 hits for an 8.49 ERA and 1.55 home WHIP. Those are all pure PLAY AGAINST numbers. For Oakland, Kazmir has a 2.56 ERA for the season. In 5 recent starts, Kazmir is 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA. In this TPM, we side with Oakland/Kazmir over NYY/Sabathia.
Miami Marlins (Koehler) at Boston Red Sox (Porcello) (-180) 7:10 ET
Well aware that the Bo Sox have won 6 straight against Miami after last night’s 4-3 victory. In addition, the Red Sox are on a 7-2 surge, averaging 5.4 RPG. Winners of 3 straight, they face a Miami team who has lost 3 straight and continues to play without Stanton, the best offensive force in the league. But, it is a Big Dog TPM (Total Pitching Mismatch) with tonight’s starters. Porcello has a 6.08 ERA for the season, including his last 8 starts, where he is 0-7 with a 8.18 ERA. It got no better in his last start against Toronto, where he was lit up for 7 runs in 2 IP of an 11-2 loss. Far prefer the slants of the blue collar, Koehler, whose 3 recent starts have produced a 1.80 ERA.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Hellickson) at Texas Rangers (Harrison) (-110) 8:05 ET
Make the Texas Rangers your False Favorite of the Day. After a 29-15 run, the Rangers have gone 4-12, including 7 straight losses on this field. Now, they send Harrison to the mound, who has not pitched in an MLB game in 14 months, following spinal fusion, his 3rd back surgery. If his rehab starts are any indication, he is far from ready for primetime. Those starts yielded a 1-3 record with a 6.23 ERA. Hellickson is starting after one of his best outings of the year, in which he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 IP of an 8-1 victory vs. Colorado. Fly in the ointment is the Arizona mental makeup as they go for the 13th time to reach the .500 mark.
