THE DAILY BOBBER
JULY 6, 2011
BET OF THE DAY
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins
Pick: Total Runs Over 7 1/2 (-110)
Analysis: Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Kendrick face off tonight in what should be a hitter’s game. The current projected Phillies lineup has absolutely destroyed Sanchez in the past, hitting .336 with 21 RBI’s in 110 at-bats, giving Sanchez a 6.30 ERA over that span. Sanchez has been solid this year, but got roped in his last start, and is perhaps coming back to Earth a bit as he posted a 3.41 ERA last month. Over the past three seasons, Sanchez has posted a 3.11 ERA at home, 4.34 ERA at night, 3.68 ERA in July, and 5.03 ERA versus Philly. Kyle Kendrick has not been a whole lot better. This projected Marlins lineup has hit .324 with seven RBI’s in 68 at-bats against Kendrick, giving him a 3.40 ERA versus this lineup. With Hanley Ramirez back healthy with a hot bat, the Marlins should be able to put some runs on the board. This season, Kendrick has a 4.61 ERA in away games and 3.38 ERA at night. Over the past three seasons, he has a 4.90 ERA in away games, 4.59 ERA at night, 6.68 ERA versus Florida, and 5.19 ERA against Florida at Sun Life Stadium. Bobber recommends a play on Total Runs Over 7 1/2.
SECOND BET OF THE DAY
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox (-121)
Analysis: Ricky Romero gets the nod tonight for Toronto as they face off against Tim Wakefield and the Boston Red Sox. This is most likely to be a high-scoring affair, as Romero has struggled mightily against the high-powered Boston offense. However, I felt the line was a bit high to play the over, and instead decided there was enough backing to make a play on Boston. This Boston lineup is hitting a staggering .398 with 15 RBI’s in 98 at-bats versus the typically sound Romero. This gives Romero a 5.05 ERA against these hitters. He already got knocked around at Fenway Park earlier this season, posting a 10.38 ERA in the one start he faced them. Over the past three seasons, Romero has a 4.15 ERA in away games, 4.50 ERA at night, 5.01 ERA in July, 7.42 ERA versus Boston, and 4.63 ERA at Fenway Park. The powerful Boston offense should give Wakefield plenty of runs to play with. Speaking of Wakefield, he has been pretty solid agains this projected Toronto lineup, as they have hit just .237 with 10 RBI’s in 93 at-bats, giving him a 3.55 ERA. Wakefield has struggled at times over the past few seasons, but has faired well against Toronto, posting a 2.89 ERA against them at Fenway Park. Boston is 6-4 over their last 10 games while Toronto is 4-6. Look for Boston to get the win in this one.
THIRD BET OF THE DAY
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals Over 4 Runs (-130)
Analysis: Bronson Arroyo takes the mound against the 4th-ranked St. Louis Cardinal offense. Arroyo has been terrible against this projected Cardinals lineup, as they have hit .281 with 48 RBI’s in 278 at-bats, giving Arroyo an ERA of 5.70. On the year, Bronson has struggled significantly, posting a 5.72 ERA on the road, 6.68 ERA at night, and 4.50 ERA in one game versus St. Louis. Over the past three seasons, Arroyo sports a 4.37 ERA on the road, 4.13 ERA at night, 4.75 ERA against St. Louis, and a 7.28 ERA while pitching at Busch Stadium. Look for St. Louis to jump on Arroyo early and often as Pujols makes his return to the lineup, and cash in on what is hopefully our third win of the day. Best of luck, but remember, you’ve got to be good to get lucky.