DAVID MALINSKY
4* CINCINNATI/OAKLAND OVER 8
A couple of cool evenings with pitchers on form have led to a pair of low-scoring games to open this series, but that reduces this line to an extremely low hurdle to leap, and a pleasant day in Oakland with the wind favoring the hitters sets this one up well for the offenses.
Cincinnati brings pitching problems from top to bottom this afternoon. Johnny Cueto is not on form, not having worked past the 6th inning in six straight games, and with a 7.15 allowance over his last four outings. Do not be mislead by the fact that he gave up only one run over 5.2 IP in his last start at Seattle – he labored to the tune of 20.3 PPI against a weak offense, not finishing the 6th despite throwing 115 pitches, his second highest count of the season. Both the Quality of Quantity from those recent efforts is a problem, with the Cincinnati middle relief corps among the weakest in the Majors this season, and today we do not expect any signs of Francisco Cordero taking the mound, off of back-to-back nights in which he has thrown 54 pitches. Not even Dusty Baker would force a closer into a day game off of that kind of work load.
Meanwhile Vin Mazzaro just does not bring the kind of stuff needed to succeed at this level, and his particular problem has been HR’s, with 19 allowed through his first 121.1 Major League innings, helping to buoy that 5.27 ERA into place. It creates a bad matchup against a Cincinnati offense that is tied for 3rd in the majors in HR’s, especially with the wind blowing to right center, and the Oakland bullpen also brings some fatigue issues for the latter stages.