SPORTS WAGERS
Boston/VANCOUVER over 5½ +125
Not many are giving the Bruins much of a chance here and neither are the books, as they’ve made the Canucks a 2-1 favorite in the series. Our problem with the B’s is not their personnel but rather goaltender Tim Thomas. Frankly, we don’t care what the experts or numbers say. Thomas is not a good goaltender. He’s out of position on so many plays, he flops all over the place and it would not surprise us one bit to see the Canucks score a bunch of goals in this series beginning with game one. The Bolts had plenty of chances to score goals without the aid of puck-moving defensemen but that’s not the case with the Canucks. Vancouver has Christian Erhoff, Alexander Edler, Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa, all very capable of moving the puck out swiftly and efficiently and creating. Up front the Vancouver snipers need no introduction. This is a team that can score goals and they should be sharp after some rest. The Bruins, too, can score goals and Roberto Luongo no longer instills fear into anyone. He’s been beatable. So, without breaking it down too much, what we have here is two very average goaltenders in the Stanley Cup Finals. We have two rested teams and that helps the offense and does not help the netminders. We’re calling this one a 6-2 Vancouver win. Play: Vancouver/Boston over 5½ +125 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA –1½ +141 over Florida
The D-Backs lost last night to end their winning streak but they remain the hottest team in the league and they have a hugely favorable match-up here. You’re not going to get too many more chances to wager against Javier Vazquez because his walking papers are forthcoming. Vazquez has a dead arm and at the age of 34 we highly doubt he’s going to go Bartolo Colon on anyone. Last season his return to the Bronx got the blame but sudden command implosion and fly-ball jump may point to a different culprit and that’s carried over to this year. Vazquez has received a lot of attention due to his diminished velocity. While the velocity loss on his fastball has not helped, his true problem has been implosions with runners on base. He has posted the worst skills of any starter with runners on base by far that include a low strikeout rate, awful control, a 30% groundball rate and the worst BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the majors at -104. His skills with the bases empty are not good either and at this park, where runners are plentiful, Vazquez has almost a 0% chance of having a good game. Vazquez has a 1.62 WHIP to go along with a 6.01 ERA. Meanwhile, Daniel Hudson’s skills are among the NL's best. He has a BPV of 100 and a BB/strikeout rate of 19/64 in 72 innings. This one is all about wagering against Vazquez. Play: Arizona –1½ +141 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –109 over Milwaukee
The Brewers look rather tempting with Shaun Marcum going against Mike Leake, especially since the Reds are favored but a close look reveals that Milwaukee is really not that appealing at all. For one, they’ve lost 21 of their last 26 against Cinci and overall the Crew have won just nine of 27 road games. Marcum is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.80 and that looks pretty sweet on paper. However, Marcum has had a whole slew of favorable starts that include games in Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and L.A and home starts v Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Colorado and San Fran. You may not find a pitcher in the Majors with an easier schedule. Now things get much tougher for Marcum because he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 34%/20%/46% GB/LD/FB profile and at this park, that’s a problem waiting to happen. The last time he pitched at Great American, Marcum didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and a repeat of that here would not surprise. He’s also been aided by a strand rate of 77%. Leake replaced Homer Bailey in the rotation. He had six tough starts on the surface earlier this year (5.70) that earned him his Triple-A ticket. But underneath, he showed very good skills (high strikeout rate, good control and a 3.84 xERA), and he now gets another shot. Leake came in last season with zero minor league experience and more than held his own in majors. He was shut down in August after hit%, hr/f led to 12.41 ERA in last four outings. Expect some growing pains, but GB%, good command and low IP bode well for future. He held his own in 2010 (8-4, 4.23 ERA) and in one start v the Brewers he struck out six, walked none and surrendered two runs in seven full. Milwaukee looks like the play on paper but underneath the Reds offer the true value at a short price at home. Play: Cincinnati –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
