JOE GAVAZZI
MLB
Pittsburgh (- 1 ½ R/+110)
St. Louis (-165)
KC Royals (+130)
Minnesota Twins (+105)
NBA PLAYOFFS
Houston Rockets (+10-)
**WRITEUPS**
Houston Rockets at Golden St. Warriors (-10-) 9:00 ET ESPN
Game 5 of the Western Conference Championship, best of 7 series, returns to Oracle Arena, the home of the Golden St. Warriors. It is a site where Golden St. is 46-3 SU for the season. This game was necessitated by the Game 4 (128-115) Houston win on Monday night. The Rockets have shown precedence for survival this NBA Playoff season. Trailing 3 games to 1 against the LA Clippers in Round 2, Houston rallied for 3 consecutive victories by margins of 21, 12 and 13 points. They are now in position to do the same thing, though they will have to win both games at Oracle Arena against the best team in the NBA on the league’s strongest home court. Nonetheless, Houston will continue to be “living the dream” of their 2015 NBA Playoff Season.
It was a scary moment for Golden St. fans when MVP, Stephen Curry, left Game 4 with a head contusion in the 1st half. But, he passed concussion protocol and returned to tally 23 points for the night. Notably missing, however, was his usual ability to mix it up as indicated by the fact that he snared just a single rebound. Draymond Green with a 21/15 night and Klay Thompson who knocked down 6 of 13 triples for 24 points picked up the slack, as did Barnes, Iguodala and Barbosa, all of whom tallied in double digits. Yet, it was the Rockets who prevailed in a desperation/elimination game behind 45 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists by NBA MVP runner-up, James Harden. Harden shot 13 for 22 from the field, including 7 of 11 from the arc. Josh Smith continued his resurgence with 20 points, 6 boards and 5 assists. Howard dominated the interior with 14/12, while Ariza again contributed with a 17/5/3 night.
But, the dominant statistic from Monday night’s game was that the 2 teams combined for (37) 3 pointers on an amazing (78) 3 point shots. Clearly, the shooting from behind the arc or defensive efforts attempting to stop the triple will be a key factor in the outcome of tonight’s game.
Tonight, the Warriors get a second chance to close out the Rockets and play in the franchise’s first NBA Finals in 40 years. With Cleveland already having clinched the other Finals spot, there will be ample motivation for the Warriors to get the win. Though the Warriors may well get this victory on the NBA’s strongest home court, it is improbable that Houston will let go of the rope, as they did in the 115-80 Game 3 home loss. Expect a solid 48 minute effort from the visitor, as the Warriors get the win, but we get the money.
Miami Marlins (Hand) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Cole) (-1 ½ R/+110) 12:35 ET
We follow the momentum of two teams and two pitchers headed opposite directions. The Pirates have now won 5 straight, outscoring foes 30-6 with a 1.06 starter ERA. In the last 4 games, the Pirates have averaged 6.5 runs with a .323 BA. The 2 wins this week against Miami have run the series record to 14-5 including 10-1 at this site. Cole has allowed less than or equal to 2 runs in 7 of 8 recent starts. In 14 starts dating to last season, Cole is 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA. In his last 17 home starts, Cole is 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA. The Marlins are mired in a 3-13 slide, averaging just 2.6 RPG, hitting .180 with RISP. Journeyman starter, Hand, has a record of 4-18 in 31 MLB starts in which he has a 4.58 ERA. Run line players note, 16 of 19 Miami recent losses have come by 2 or more runs. All 7 of the Pirates’ recent victories have come by 2 or more runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Collmenter) at St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) (-170) 8:15 ET
MONEY LINE PLAY on the resurgent Cards against a D’Back team who made their recent money (5-0 with a 4-game winning streak) against struggling Miami. St. Louis, conversely, has righted their mid-May slide which saw them go 5-9. The Cards have now won 3 consecutive games, outscoring the opposition 15-7. Two victories this week against Arizona have lifted their series record to 11-3 and 5-0 at this site. From a pitching perspective, it is all St. Louis. Collmenter is in the tank with his last 4 starts, resulting in a 9.31 ERA. In those 19 1/3 IP, Collmenter has allowed 7 HRs. An ERA of 5.19 and a .860 OPS confirm the down slide. Lynn was rolling in a pair of starts in which he allowed just 1 run in 13 IP. Back spasms, which have now been resolved, were responsible for his poor outing of last in which he allowed 5 runs in 6 IP in a 5-0 loss to KC. Expect him to be at full health, as he pitches with the knowledge that in 5 starts against Arizona he has a 2.89 ERA. Lay the money line in this one!
KC Royals (Young) at NY Yankees (Pineda) (-140) 1:05 ET
Still a bit shy about backing the Royals for a major play after they were dumped 14-1 in our Top Play loser Monday! Their slide is now 0-3 in which they have been outscored 25-3. Yet, they remain the best team in baseball dating back to last year with an 80-44 mark. True enough, the Yankees have turned around their 1-10 slide by whipping the Royals 19-2 the last two nights. But, the current form of these two starters indicates there is value at the price with the Royals, who now trail Houston by 2 games in the win column for the best record in the American League. KC has won all 4 starts by Young in which he has a 0.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. On May 15th, he beat NYY (12-1), allowing just a single run in 5 2/3 IP. Young bested today’s starter, Pineda, in that game who worked just 5 1/3 IP, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits. That has been part of the 2 game slide for Pineda who began the year 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA. But in his last 2 starts, he has worked 11 1/3 IP, allowing 12 runs on 18 hits. Play the Royals to avoid the sweep with solid value in the starting pitching numbers.
Boston Red Sox (Porcello) (-115) at Minnesota Twins (Hughes) 1:10 ET
PERCEPTION/REALITY PLAY OF THE DAY! A quick look at MLB standings show that the Minnesota Twins, along with the KC Royals, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cards and the LA Dodgers are the only 5 teams who are playing .600 or better ball. The fading Boston Red Sox are 5th and last in the AL East with a 21-25 mark following consecutive losses to Minnesota this week. Boston has scored only 3 runs in those two games, making it a total of 14 runs in their last 8 road games. Minnesota, conversely, has the best percentage home record in the league at 16-6. They are on runs of 18-6 overall, including 4-0 by combined scores of 21-7 with a team ERA of 1.75. Hughes has been solid in his last 2 outings allowing just 4 runs in 14 IP. In a pair of starts last year vs. Boston, Hughes worked 14 IP, posting a 1.93 ERA with 14 Ks. For Boston, Porcello has a 5.07 ERA for the year. He comes off a miserable outing in which he was blasted by the weak hitting LA Angels for 7 runs in 4 1/3 IP of a 12-5 Boston loss. At a home underdog price, Minnesota is clearly the play.
