DAVID MALINSKY
4* CINCINNATI over ATLANTA
The Reds are a better team than Atlanta, and Aaron Harang is better than Kenshin Kawakami. That makes the underdog return difficult to pass up.
Harang’s 2-5/6.02 bottom line plays a big part in this price, but we see much better stuff from the former staff ace than those base numbers. For the season he sports an excellent ratio of 41 K’s vs. only 10 W’s over 46.1 innings, and in four of his last six outings his ground out to fly out ratio was 2:1 or better. He is also getting stronger by the start, with 26 K’s vs. four W’s over his last four outings. But he has been hurt by a couple of categories that can correct – a 61.0 percent strand rate will get better, and of the 137 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings his BABIP of .365 is at #8. That will gradually come down, and an unimposing Atlanta offense provides the opportunity for him to get right back on his game. And with Francisco Cordero (13 saves) rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands.
We are not sure that Kawakami has a game. At the age of 35, and lacking a lot of pop, he has to be able to fool hitters to be successful, and in his second Major League campaign he has not been able to fool anyone – his 0-6/5.79 basically tells the tale. Neither his K or ground ball rates are high enough for long-term success, and in three of his seven starts his PPI was 19.2 or higher, which shows that the command is nothing special either. So just what is there to make a team with a losing record and a below average pitcher the favorite’s against one of the hottest teams in the game? Only Harang’s misleading bottom line. Yet he is still better than Kawakami, and the team behind him has out-paced the Atlanta lineup by 14 runs, 75 total bases, 12 home runs and 12 steals.