DAVID MALINSKY
4* UTAH over HOUSTON
There was no hurry to pounce on this one today – with the Jazz having to travel off of an O.T. win patience was the key, with the markets making their usual adjustment against a team in such a setting. But we do not believe that the adjustment has any merit, and that gets us in play at the new short line.
First, the fundamentals of the matchup. As we noted in yesterday’s failed Memphis ticket, the Houston defense has simply worn out down the stretch, and note that even in getting that win that Rockets allowed 103 points on 49.9 percent shooting, with the Grizzles able to get to the basket consistently, taking only five of their 92 shots from 3-point range. That is really bad news against a Utah offense attacks the rim relentlessly, with the Jazz also going hard after their own misses, with the battle of the boards a major mismatch. And with Utah having moved into sole possession of that key #2 slot in the Western Conference, there is an absolutely sense of urgency for the favorite to exploit all of those advantages.
So what about the Overtime factor? We do not believe it matters all that much, and a case could be made that the Jazz might even be the fresher team. They had three full days off before hosting Oklahoma City, which negates much of last night’s exertion, and contrast that with a Houston team that is playing for the 6th time in nine days, with a court change every time. When you lack size and depth back-to-back settings expose your faults, and the Rockets are on an 0-6 ATS run in back-to-back settings, and just 1-10 ATS in their last 11.
These teams have met twice since the All Star break, with the Jazz winning by a combined 32 points, scoring 237 on 93-156 shooting, a sizzling 59.5 percent clip. They had an amazing count of 66 assists in those wins, while controlling the boards 82-61, all without any player going more than 36 minutes in either game. And in the first of those two encounters the Rockets still had Shane Battier, Carl Landry and David Andersen in uniform. It takes much more than an O.T. game to change that flow.
4* UTAH over HOUSTON
There was no hurry to pounce on this one today – with the Jazz having to travel off of an O.T. win patience was the key, with the markets making their usual adjustment against a team in such a setting. But we do not believe that the adjustment has any merit, and that gets us in play at the new short line.
First, the fundamentals of the matchup. As we noted in yesterday’s failed Memphis ticket, the Houston defense has simply worn out down the stretch, and note that even in getting that win that Rockets allowed 103 points on 49.9 percent shooting, with the Grizzles able to get to the basket consistently, taking only five of their 92 shots from 3-point range. That is really bad news against a Utah offense attacks the rim relentlessly, with the Jazz also going hard after their own misses, with the battle of the boards a major mismatch. And with Utah having moved into sole possession of that key #2 slot in the Western Conference, there is an absolutely sense of urgency for the favorite to exploit all of those advantages.
So what about the Overtime factor? We do not believe it matters all that much, and a case could be made that the Jazz might even be the fresher team. They had three full days off before hosting Oklahoma City, which negates much of last night’s exertion, and contrast that with a Houston team that is playing for the 6th time in nine days, with a court change every time. When you lack size and depth back-to-back settings expose your faults, and the Rockets are on an 0-6 ATS run in back-to-back settings, and just 1-10 ATS in their last 11.
These teams have met twice since the All Star break, with the Jazz winning by a combined 32 points, scoring 237 on 93-156 shooting, a sizzling 59.5 percent clip. They had an amazing count of 66 assists in those wins, while controlling the boards 82-61, all without any player going more than 36 minutes in either game. And in the first of those two encounters the Rockets still had Shane Battier, Carl Landry and David Andersen in uniform. It takes much more than an O.T. game to change that flow.
BRUCE MARSHALL
Spurs at Suns
Pick: Suns -6.5
Phoenix has had 3 days off, while San Antonio played last night in Sacramento against the Kings, and "designated shooter" G Manu Ginobili, who's carried the Spurs lately, has shot less than 40% and scored just 13.5 ppg when unrested. Spur HC Gregg Popovich, who is notorious for resting players in second of back-to-back games, will probably play everyone who's healthy in this key matchup, but the Spurs are a losing proposition when unrested. Sun PG Steve Nash has been held to single digits in his last two games, so look for him to break out against depleted Spurs. Play Suns
Spurs at Suns
Pick: Suns -6.5
Phoenix has had 3 days off, while San Antonio played last night in Sacramento against the Kings, and "designated shooter" G Manu Ginobili, who's carried the Spurs lately, has shot less than 40% and scored just 13.5 ppg when unrested. Spur HC Gregg Popovich, who is notorious for resting players in second of back-to-back games, will probably play everyone who's healthy in this key matchup, but the Spurs are a losing proposition when unrested. Sun PG Steve Nash has been held to single digits in his last two games, so look for him to break out against depleted Spurs. Play Suns
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Utah -5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
Utah won but did not cover the spread last night; I expect it to play a much more complete game tonight though.
The Jazz will look to win their third straight over the Rockets; After being held to 92 points in a loss to the Lakers on Friday and snapping an 11-game streak of scoring at least 100, the Jazz beat the Thunder 140-139 in OT on Tuesday behind Deron Williams’ career-high 42 points.
Utah moved into second place in the Western Conference; just a 1/2 game ahead of Dallas.
It's won 14 of 20 and has averaged 112 points in those contests.
The Jazz crushed the Rockets 133-110 on Feb 27th, shooting nearly 70% from the field.
Utah is 15-7-1 ATS its last 23 on the road overall; also 7-2 ATS its last nine on the road vs. Houston.
On the other side of the court: Houston is coming off a 113-103 victory over Memphis on Tuesday; I expect a letdown tonight
The Rockets are just 2-7 ATS their last nine overall; 1-4 ATS their last five at home.
Bottom line: I expect the Jazz to continue to play at a high level as they continue to jockey for playoff position; look for UTAH to improve to 14-3 ATS this year vs. Southwest division opponents and for Houston to fall to 16-23 ATS in front of the home town crowd!
9* Utah -5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
Utah won but did not cover the spread last night; I expect it to play a much more complete game tonight though.
The Jazz will look to win their third straight over the Rockets; After being held to 92 points in a loss to the Lakers on Friday and snapping an 11-game streak of scoring at least 100, the Jazz beat the Thunder 140-139 in OT on Tuesday behind Deron Williams’ career-high 42 points.
Utah moved into second place in the Western Conference; just a 1/2 game ahead of Dallas.
It's won 14 of 20 and has averaged 112 points in those contests.
The Jazz crushed the Rockets 133-110 on Feb 27th, shooting nearly 70% from the field.
Utah is 15-7-1 ATS its last 23 on the road overall; also 7-2 ATS its last nine on the road vs. Houston.
On the other side of the court: Houston is coming off a 113-103 victory over Memphis on Tuesday; I expect a letdown tonight
The Rockets are just 2-7 ATS their last nine overall; 1-4 ATS their last five at home.
Bottom line: I expect the Jazz to continue to play at a high level as they continue to jockey for playoff position; look for UTAH to improve to 14-3 ATS this year vs. Southwest division opponents and for Houston to fall to 16-23 ATS in front of the home town crowd!
Bob Balfe
Oklahoma City -2.5
The Western Conference is still in a very tight race down the stretch. All of the teams are locked into a playoff spot but what they don’t know is where they will ultimately be seeded. A loss on any given night could send a team with home court advantage now into a road team throughout the playoffs. The Thunder (who have potential to be the dark horse in the playoffs) have been on a roll as of late and I expect their high scoring performances to continue tonight against a Nuggets team that under-performs when on the road. These are games where Denver really will miss Coach Karl on the bench and the right mix of substitutions will not be utilized effectively. Look for the Nuggets to become Thunderstuck! Take Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City -2.5
The Western Conference is still in a very tight race down the stretch. All of the teams are locked into a playoff spot but what they don’t know is where they will ultimately be seeded. A loss on any given night could send a team with home court advantage now into a road team throughout the playoffs. The Thunder (who have potential to be the dark horse in the playoffs) have been on a roll as of late and I expect their high scoring performances to continue tonight against a Nuggets team that under-performs when on the road. These are games where Denver really will miss Coach Karl on the bench and the right mix of substitutions will not be utilized effectively. Look for the Nuggets to become Thunderstuck! Take Oklahoma City.
Tony George
Denver +1.5
OK City is off a brutal OT loss in a high scoring game with Utah late last night. They have to travel to play a rested a Denver who has won back to back games and looking to settle in for the playoffs. I like going against OT loss on the road the nite before, and doubt the Thunder have a full tank, coming from also playing in the altitude in OT, just ask Kansas State from the NCAA who did the same and played terrible the next game 2 days later let alone the next day. Denver needs to reverse a trend in ATS, covering just 1 out of their last 9, trends do reverse, and I like their bench, scoring and turnover ratio in this one. Look for Mello to have a big night. Play 1 Unit on Denver.
Denver +1.5
OK City is off a brutal OT loss in a high scoring game with Utah late last night. They have to travel to play a rested a Denver who has won back to back games and looking to settle in for the playoffs. I like going against OT loss on the road the nite before, and doubt the Thunder have a full tank, coming from also playing in the altitude in OT, just ask Kansas State from the NCAA who did the same and played terrible the next game 2 days later let alone the next day. Denver needs to reverse a trend in ATS, covering just 1 out of their last 9, trends do reverse, and I like their bench, scoring and turnover ratio in this one. Look for Mello to have a big night. Play 1 Unit on Denver.
Lenny Del Genio
New Orleans -5
The Bobcats are playing very good basketball winning six of their last eight and are holding down the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Last night they caught the Hawks without Johnson and Bibby and scored a 109-100 win. Tonight, without rest, they take their show on the road to New Orleans to take on the Hornets. New Orleans is still reeling from maybe their worst performance of the season, losing to the lowly Nets in New Jersey 115-87. That was their third straight loss both SU and ATS. Are the Hornets packed in or will they show some pride at home tonight and knock off the Bobcats? Look for New Orleans to bounce back from that embarrassing loss and beat Charlotte for the sixth straight time! Play on New Orleans.
New Orleans -5
The Bobcats are playing very good basketball winning six of their last eight and are holding down the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Last night they caught the Hawks without Johnson and Bibby and scored a 109-100 win. Tonight, without rest, they take their show on the road to New Orleans to take on the Hornets. New Orleans is still reeling from maybe their worst performance of the season, losing to the lowly Nets in New Jersey 115-87. That was their third straight loss both SU and ATS. Are the Hornets packed in or will they show some pride at home tonight and knock off the Bobcats? Look for New Orleans to bounce back from that embarrassing loss and beat Charlotte for the sixth straight time! Play on New Orleans.
