VegasButcher - MLB 16 – 11 for +3.86 Units
Boston Red Sox -125
There are a couple of things that stick out when analyzing Nate Karns. First, his BB-rate of 5.1 per 9 innings is extremely high. Command has been an issue for him in the majors and looks like that’s the case again this season. In addition, he’s already given up 3 HR’s this year with all 3 coming at home. In his major-league career Karns has allowed 11 HR’s in only 41.2 innings of work. That’s a HR/9 rate of 2.4 and a HR/FB rate of 24%. Karns is facing a Red Sox lineup that is very patient at the plate (#2 in BB% so far this season) and has some decent ‘pop’ in their lineup (Ortiz, Ramirez, Napoli). Karns also has a pretty bad bullpen behind him as the Rays’ pen carries a 5.3 ERA so far, the worst in the majors. Joe Kelly is throwing ‘gas’ so far this year, as his average fastball is up to 96 MPH on the season. He’s also striking guys out at a strong level (23% K-rate) and inducing a double-digit SwStr-rate of 10%, the highest of his career. Backed by a better BP, I expect Boston’s pitching to perform better than Tampa’s in this one and I like Boston’s chances for a win tonight.
San Diego Padres -120
Through 3 starts, Kendrick has had one great outing (7.0 inn with 0 ER’s and 0 BB’s) and two really bad ones (9.2 inn with 14 ER’s allowed and 9 BB’s). Of course he faced the Brewers in his lone ‘great’ out, an offense that ranks 30th so far this season. In his other two he faced off against the Dodgers (#1 ranked O) and Cubs (#10 ranked O). Today, Kendrick will be going up against the 4th ranked O of the Padres. This is not the Padres offense of the last few years – these guys can really mash. They rank 9th in Iso, 6th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+. Kendrick has allowed 4 HR’s to the two top-10 offenses he’s faced this season, and Padres have a number of guys capable of taking him deep. In addition, Colorado’s bullpen should be at less than ideal shape tonight. Four of their relievers have all pitched two straight days in a row (besides their closer Ottavino) and it’s highly unlikely that Kendrick will last deep in this one. On the other side you have Shields who is absolutely dealing right now. His 30% K-rate to start out the year is 10% higher than his career rate of 20%, and his 2.7 SIERA through 3 starts is on par with another pitcher who went from AL to NL this off-season – Max Scherzer. Is this sustainable? Well, there typically is an uptick in performance when a good pitcher movers from AL to NL. Rockies do have a very dangerous lineup and are getting a couple of guys back today (Arenado and Dickerson), but Shields with his strong strike-out ability should be alright. Regardless, San Diego’s pitching overall has a strong advantage in tonight’s matchup, and their offense has shown to be even better than Colorado’s so far this season. I like their chances tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
I think Kershaw’s 4.4 ERA is keeping the odds on this one lower than they should be. His 32% K-rate is as elite as it gets, his velocity has shown zero decline YoY, and his 2.5 SIERA is just a tad off his 2.1 historic mark he set last year. So what’s the issue? Well, an unusually high 0.422 BABIP and a 25% HR/FB rate have a lot to do with it. Kershaw’s BABIP is at a 0.273 for his career and his HR/FB rate is at 6.8%, a much lower number than the league average mark of around 10%. Clearly he’s been very unlucky so far this season and his numbers will only improve going forward. Taking on a lefty-heavy San Fran lineup should only help his ERA tonight. On the other side we have Bumgarner, whose 5.3 ERA is also out of character. Is he in a similar scenario as Kershaw? Far from it actually. While Kershaw’s K-rate of 32% remains elite, Bumgarner is only at 15% so far this season. He has a 23% mark for this career and a 25% mark the last 2 years. Bumgarner’s velocity has been down across the board: about 1 MPH off his fastball and almost 3 MPH’s of his slider. His SwStr-rate is also in single-digits (~ 8%) after posting 11% mark the last two years. Remember all those innings that he logged last season on San Fran’s way to the championship? I’m wondering if that is coming back to ‘bite him’ a bit in the early going. While Bumgarner’s 0.351 BABIP has also been inflated, his 4.1 SIERA indicates a pretty mediocre pitching display so far this season. And facing the #1 ranked offense won’t be easy. I like the Dodgers to bounce back in this one.
Boston Red Sox -125
There are a couple of things that stick out when analyzing Nate Karns. First, his BB-rate of 5.1 per 9 innings is extremely high. Command has been an issue for him in the majors and looks like that’s the case again this season. In addition, he’s already given up 3 HR’s this year with all 3 coming at home. In his major-league career Karns has allowed 11 HR’s in only 41.2 innings of work. That’s a HR/9 rate of 2.4 and a HR/FB rate of 24%. Karns is facing a Red Sox lineup that is very patient at the plate (#2 in BB% so far this season) and has some decent ‘pop’ in their lineup (Ortiz, Ramirez, Napoli). Karns also has a pretty bad bullpen behind him as the Rays’ pen carries a 5.3 ERA so far, the worst in the majors. Joe Kelly is throwing ‘gas’ so far this year, as his average fastball is up to 96 MPH on the season. He’s also striking guys out at a strong level (23% K-rate) and inducing a double-digit SwStr-rate of 10%, the highest of his career. Backed by a better BP, I expect Boston’s pitching to perform better than Tampa’s in this one and I like Boston’s chances for a win tonight.
San Diego Padres -120
Through 3 starts, Kendrick has had one great outing (7.0 inn with 0 ER’s and 0 BB’s) and two really bad ones (9.2 inn with 14 ER’s allowed and 9 BB’s). Of course he faced the Brewers in his lone ‘great’ out, an offense that ranks 30th so far this season. In his other two he faced off against the Dodgers (#1 ranked O) and Cubs (#10 ranked O). Today, Kendrick will be going up against the 4th ranked O of the Padres. This is not the Padres offense of the last few years – these guys can really mash. They rank 9th in Iso, 6th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+. Kendrick has allowed 4 HR’s to the two top-10 offenses he’s faced this season, and Padres have a number of guys capable of taking him deep. In addition, Colorado’s bullpen should be at less than ideal shape tonight. Four of their relievers have all pitched two straight days in a row (besides their closer Ottavino) and it’s highly unlikely that Kendrick will last deep in this one. On the other side you have Shields who is absolutely dealing right now. His 30% K-rate to start out the year is 10% higher than his career rate of 20%, and his 2.7 SIERA through 3 starts is on par with another pitcher who went from AL to NL this off-season – Max Scherzer. Is this sustainable? Well, there typically is an uptick in performance when a good pitcher movers from AL to NL. Rockies do have a very dangerous lineup and are getting a couple of guys back today (Arenado and Dickerson), but Shields with his strong strike-out ability should be alright. Regardless, San Diego’s pitching overall has a strong advantage in tonight’s matchup, and their offense has shown to be even better than Colorado’s so far this season. I like their chances tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
I think Kershaw’s 4.4 ERA is keeping the odds on this one lower than they should be. His 32% K-rate is as elite as it gets, his velocity has shown zero decline YoY, and his 2.5 SIERA is just a tad off his 2.1 historic mark he set last year. So what’s the issue? Well, an unusually high 0.422 BABIP and a 25% HR/FB rate have a lot to do with it. Kershaw’s BABIP is at a 0.273 for his career and his HR/FB rate is at 6.8%, a much lower number than the league average mark of around 10%. Clearly he’s been very unlucky so far this season and his numbers will only improve going forward. Taking on a lefty-heavy San Fran lineup should only help his ERA tonight. On the other side we have Bumgarner, whose 5.3 ERA is also out of character. Is he in a similar scenario as Kershaw? Far from it actually. While Kershaw’s K-rate of 32% remains elite, Bumgarner is only at 15% so far this season. He has a 23% mark for this career and a 25% mark the last 2 years. Bumgarner’s velocity has been down across the board: about 1 MPH off his fastball and almost 3 MPH’s of his slider. His SwStr-rate is also in single-digits (~ 8%) after posting 11% mark the last two years. Remember all those innings that he logged last season on San Fran’s way to the championship? I’m wondering if that is coming back to ‘bite him’ a bit in the early going. While Bumgarner’s 0.351 BABIP has also been inflated, his 4.1 SIERA indicates a pretty mediocre pitching display so far this season. And facing the #1 ranked offense won’t be easy. I like the Dodgers to bounce back in this one.
