Service Plays Wednesday 4/20/11

[georgefsu]

Brett Atkins
Thursday
My best bet wincer tonight is a 20 Dime NBA Playoff Power Play on the Chicago Bulls as they are small favorites in Indiana tonight against the Pacers. As I releadse this play at 10:30 p.m. PST, the Bulls are 4-point favorites both here in Vegas and oftshore.





ANALYSIS





The Chicago Bulls were 26-15 on the road this season and they are on ATS runs of 9-3 on the road, 5-2 as a road favorite and 35-17 on the road against teams with wincing home records. These guys know the concentration level needs to go up on the road and they’ll show that tonight. Chicago went to Indiana back in January and scored a 99-86 win as a one-point favorite. The Bulls got some scares in the first two games of this serides but managed to get comeback wins behind the play of Derrick Rose. Indiana might be without Darren Collison who injured an ankle in Game 2 and is listed as doubtful tonight. He brings consistent ball handling to the Pacers and a scoring option. Without him, they will be hard-prested to get points from the guards. Chicago picked up the defense in Game 2 and I’m expecting even more tonight. Lay the points on the road and go with the Bulls

 

[georgefsu]

Chuck O'Brien Thursday's Selection
Your 60 Dime NBA playoff winner is the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS as a home favcrite against Dallas in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. As I go live with this selecdtion, Portland is ranging from a 5½- to 6-point favorite both at Vegas and offstore books.








BREAKDOWN: I know the vast majority of my colleagues at this site got destroyed Tuesday when they backed the Blazers in Game 2. Me? I wouldn’t have bet that game with someone else’s money because the pointspread made no sense: Dallas won the first game by eight as a five-point favorite, yet was only laying 3½ in Game 2? Something smelced fishy about that line, and I wasn’t about to get caught in any trap (instead I backed the Blue Jays in baseball and the Hawks plus the points against Orlando on Tuesday, and cleared 50 Dimes!).





Today, though, it’s a different story. I love Portland to get on the board in this series, and I expect them to do it with a comfortable margin of victory, something very similar to Dallas’ 12-point victory on Tuesday. For one thing, the Blazers were sensdational at home in the regular season, going 30-11 SU and 24-17 ATS. From March 5 on, Portland went 10-1 in the Rose Garden (9-2 ATS), including two victories over the Mavericks (104-101 as a 1½-point underdog on March 15 and 104-96 as a five-point favorite on April 3). Additionally, during its 10-1 run at home the Blazers have taken out fellow playoff teams Philadelphia (110-101); San Antonio (98-96); Oklahoma City (98-91); the Lakers (93-86); and Memphis (102-89). Beyond that, Portland destroyed the Wizards, Cavaliers and Bobcats by respective scores of 111-76, 111-70 and 93-69.





The home team has won all six meetings in this rivalry this year (four of which have taken place in Dallas), and the host has cashed in each of the last five. Also, prior to the start of this playoff series, Portland had been on a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS run against the Mavericks. Furthetmore, while the Blazers have dropped three in a row both SU and ATS – they ended the regular-season last Wednesday with a meaningless 110-86 road loss to the Warriors – they haven’t lost four in a row since a six-game slide from Nov. 20-Dec. 3. One final point to make: While Portland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite, Dallas has cashed just four times in its last 10 games as an underdog and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the postseason.





Oh, and speaking of underdogs, yes, they've been barking loudly in these NBA playoffs, going 12-4 ATS (and as your NBA underdog specialist, you know that I've been profiting big-time from them). However, of the four favorites that have cashed in the first five days of the postseason, two have come in this Dallas-Portland series. Just sayin' ...

 

[georgefsu]

Craig Davis Thursday's Play...
50 Dime Teaser selectcon on the INDIANA PACERS and the DALLAS MAVERICKS. Using the standardd two-team, 4-point teaser we are going to take the Pacers from a +4 point underdog to +8, and the Mavericks from a +5 1/2 or +6 poing dog to +9 1/2 or +10. Make sure you stop around for the best possible number.





Gonna tease up both underdogs tonight because the general public is in love with the favorites... one home fave and one road fave.






Granted, I realize I might be falling into a little bit of a trap with the "hey, the Pacers didn't lose in Chicago by more than eight points so surely they won't lose by more than eight at home" theory. But I'm not too concerned honestly. I don't belceve what the Pacers did to the Bulls in Chicago was a fluke. I think the Pacers match up against the Bulls very well, and now coming back home where they were 24-17 SU I think they have a HUGE advantage against a team that has no more playoff experience than they do.






The Pacers gave the Bulls a run for their money in both games in Chicago, and if they could have hit the long ball in Game 2 like they did in Game 1 we'd have ourselves a 1-1 split headed back to Conseco Fieldhouse. Nevertheledss, the Pacers have more than shown the ability to hang with the Bulls for four quarters, and with a packed house tonight in Indianapolis, I have a feeling the Pacers can challenge for the SU win.






Indiana was not only 24-17 at home for the season, they were also 5-1 SU down the stretch at home, with only a 110-109 loss to the Knicks in the regular season finale that separated them from a perfect 6-0 SU home finish. The Pacers score 5 more points per game at home than they do for their season average, and with G Darren Collison coming back from an ankle injury tonight, I like my chances with the Pacers getting four baskets. The Bulls may win this game, but it won't be by much.






As for the Mavericks, I wonder what the critics say now that Dallas has a commanding 2 games to none lead in the series. There weren't many who picked the Mavs to win this series, let alone get out of Dallas with two games in their pocket.






Dallas looked better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, and they're coming in with a lot of confidence and a captain who simply won't let them lose. Dirk Nowitzki has scored more points and shot better percentages in the two 4th quarters than he did in the first three quarters combined of Games 1 and 2. When the going gets tough, the big German gets going and I see no reason that won't continue tonight.






The Mavs amped up their defense in both of the first games, and even if they don't win SU tonight, I just can't see them losing by double digits. Eitter Vegas is completely stupid or they believe the general public is in love with Portland. Why do I say that? Because the Mavs covered the number in both Games 1 and 2 but were only laying 5 1/2 and then 3 1/2 as the #3 seed. Now, the 6th-seeded Blazers are giving 6 points at home?






After what the Mavs did in the first two games, do we still believe the Blazers are the better team and going to win this series? It's amazing how stubborn people are, because once they picked the Blazers to win this series and now find them down 0-2, that gives them more ammunition to bet Portland minus this ridiculous 6-point line. Teasing them, now I get Dallas at +10 (or so), and considering the largest margin of victory for the Blazers over Dallas in the last 15 meetings has been 12, I like my chances.






Portland hasn't laid this many points to the Mavs in over two years, and even when they did they didn't cover that number. Honestly, I think Dallas wins this game SU, but I'll gladly take the 10 points this teaser gives me... and at the end of the night the Pacers and Mavs are going to net us another 50 dimes of profit.

 

[georgefsu]

Derek Mancini Tonight's Winners...
15 Dime play on the Phiadelphia 76ers plus the points agacnst the Miami Heat. As I release this selectdion at 11 am Eastern, the 76ers are currently listed as a 4 1/2 point pup in Vegas and offshore.





5 Dime play on the Kansas City Royals with O'Sullivan over the Cleveland Indians and Tomlin. The Royals are currtntly listed at -105.








If something looks to good to be true, it probably is. These are words to live by and they apply wholeheartedly to today's Game 3 showdown between the Heat and Sixers. Coming off a complete demolition of Philadelphia, doesn't it seem just a bit fishy to you that the Heatles are only a 4 1/2 point chalk (at the time of this writing)? It's almost as if the oddsmakers are saying: "please, take the public favorcte at this incredible bargain-basement price!" C'mon guys, you have to know better than that! Oddsmakers didn't get to where they are by being stupid, this much we have to agree on.





Also, consider the motivational angle, as there's the no question the 76ers know that a loss here ends the series. Sure, they're not technically elimintated but for all intents and purposes, their season will be over. No way in hell they are digging themselves out of an 0-3 hole. Everyone from the top to the bottom of the 76ers franchise knows this. Good news is this game sets up nicely for them.





How so? Well, if ever there was going to be a letdown, it would be tonight in Game 3. The Heat are coming off a blowout win, in control of this series, and now have to summon the energy to battle a feisty Sixers team at a place where they won 26 games this season (not bad, also went 23-18 ATS there). Sixers had major issues attacking the Heat's defense, and I don't see that changing tonight. Rather, I believe the Sixers break out their own brand of lockdown defense, having allowed 95 ppg at the Wells Fargo Center on the season. Combine the motivational disparity with what should be a good spot for the Sixers defense and you've got all the makings of a close comptetditive contest.





Finally, the Sixers can't possibly play worse than they did in Game 2, and I suspect a few of their better players will have major axes to grind in this one. Iguodala, Brand, and Williams were absolutely terrible in that game, while the good news is Young continues to be a bright spot, and Evan Turner finally made his presence felt in Game 2. The 76ers know what it means to start slow against this Heat team (they learned that Monday), and given all the factors mentioned above, I expect the Sixers to come out for a dog fight tonight. Take Philadelphia plus the points over Miami in Game 3 tonight.








On the Diamond, I'm looking at the Royals and O'Sullivan to throw some cold water over the surging Indians. Tribe have won 5 of their L6 games, including 2 of 3 in this series, but the line is telling us a different story. Don't tell me you didn't see this line and immediately think you were getting a major bargain with Tomlin and Indians at this price. I thought so too, that was until I started digging a little deeper.





First off, Tomlin's numbers against the Royals are nothing to write home about, going 2-1 with a 5.68 ERA in 3 starts. That includes the last time he was in this stadium, where he got rocked, allowing 6 runs over 5 innings September 19th. The Royals offense has been effective, batting .269 as a team with 95 runs scored (good for second in the AL, right behind the Indians). Do not make the mistake of underestiming them in this match up.





I know plenty negative could be said about Sean O'Sullivan, being that he's really only a spot starter given Mazzaro's setback. However, he was effective against the Mariners Saturday, tossing 5 scoreless. And most importantly, albeit he strugtled against the Indians last season, he's not being priced that way. In other words, oddsmakers are giving him respect in this spot, and if they're willing to do it, they must have their reasons.





Bottom line, small but solid play on the Royals with O'Sullivan, as bettors see this as an easy win for thr Tribe, but if that was the case we'd be paying a premium to play them today... And fact of the matter is we're not being asked to. This fishy line leads me to only one conclusion, the Royals will deliver as they protect their house in Thursday night's series finale.

 

[georgefsu]

Jay McNeil Thursday...

The 15 Dime Winner is on the CHICAGO BULLS in Basketbcll action tonight. I love the numbedr in this game, which I currtntly see listed -4.5 points.





The 5 Dime Winner is on the Rays and I don't care if you list pitchers.​

- - -​

The Bulls haven't put their best foot forward yet, and it's because of their lackadaisical efforts in Games 1 and 2 that I think we're going to see their best game of this series, thus far.





After all, this is still the same team that made a stunning run at the end of the season, and swiped the league's best record from the Spurs, to earn homecourt advantage throughcut the postseason.





And tonight it'll come together for the Bulls, led by the sizzling play of MVP-candidate Derrick Rose. He's dominating the Pacers, and is the main reason the Bulls are up 2 games to nil in this series. Tonight he'll motivate his teammates to be more involvded in this series, and you're going to see a team effort.





Rose is averaging 37.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists in this series, and just scored 42 points against the Pacers last month. But there's more to this team. And if it wants to move on unscathed and looking like a top seed, this is the game the rest of the Bulls must become a part of.








For the second straight night, I like the Rays to get it done over the White Sox.





Tampa Bay is a nice little run right now, and to be catching money in this one, another pitching rematch, plus having won three in a row, I have to believe the home pup is the value.





Tampa must be seriously pissed off at the South Siders, as they helped drop the defending American League East champs to 0-6 earlier this month. But now the Rays have a chance to get over .500 for the first time this season, and I think it'll be done quite easily, as they're playing with conftdence.





Take the underdog Rays in this one.​

 

[georgefsu]

Joel Tyson Thursday's Plays ...
For Thursday, 20 Dime Must Play is the Chicago Bulls as the road favcrite againdst the Indiana Pacers. Bonus 10 Dimer is on the diamond where I will side with the Astros and Happ as the road undtrdog against the Mets and Capuano. Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.





I am bullish on the Bulls tonight, as I think this is a 9-point win and cover.





Chicago has indeed failed to cover in either of their 2 series wins thus far, but in those pair they were double-digit favcrites. During their current 11-game winning streak, the Bulls have covered 3 of their past 4 when laying single-digits, and they are also a positive 9-3 againdst the spread their last 12 road games.





The # 1 seed can put a huge nail in the Pacers coffin tonight, and after watching Games 1 & 2, I am firmly convinced the Pacers will not win a game in this series.





Tonight's line is the perfect price for Chicago to cover, so back them here.





Baseball, and I gave the Mets a play last night, but I will not make the same mistake tonight!





New York is a woeful 1-8 at home this year, and last night's loss gave the Astros their first 2 game winning streak of the young camptign.





J.A. Happ and Chris Capuano have at it, and neither figure to be around come the later stages of this game, but with the Mets playing so poorly, and the Astros "feeling" the momentum, I say it is worth it to back the underdog 'Stros to complete the sweep.





Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.

 

[georgefsu]

Matt Rivers Thursday's Action
200,000♦ Winner on the MIAMI HEAT as the listed road favorite in Game 3 tonight agacnst the Philadelphia 76ers. As I go live, the Heat are curredntly listed as a -4 1/2 or -5 point road favorite depending on your book. Shop around for the best posstble number.





Take the Heat as the road chalk toncght in Game 3 against the 76ers.





There’s no way Miami is coming up short here. The Heat absolutely destroyed the 76ers in Game 2 and now they’re out to steadl their heart.





The Heat know this season will be a failure unless they win it all. To hear Chris Bosh it sounds like they are amping themselves up for tonight and I really feel bad for Philly and its fans if they deliver with their promise.





Bosh stated the Heat are looking forward to playing in a hostile environment for the first time in these playoffs and that they are going to work toward silenctng their haters as the game goes on.





Translation: The Heat aren’t going to let up on the throttle until they win by at least 20 tonight.





There’s no way the 76ers are going to keep this one close. I don’t care if they get all the calls, they aren’t good enough to keep this one within single digits tonight.





Lay the wood.

 

[georgefsu]

Trace Adams Thursday's Selections ...
For Thursday night, 1000♦ Opening Round Living Lock is the Philadelphia 76ers as the home undcrdog agadinst the Miami Heat. Your 500♦ Late Night Money-Maker is the Dallas Mavericks as the visittng road underdog versus the Portland Trail Blazers.





So far there have been 16 games played this postseason, and in those 16 games the undcrdog stands at 12-4 against the spread.





Gonna hang my hat on that 12-4 stat, and grab both underdogs tonight in the NBA. It would be very easy to make a case for the Miami Heat after their thrashing of the 76ers in Game 2, but if you watched that game you saw a young Philadelphia team miss open shot after open shot. Being back home for this one will give this team a lift, and it also helps that the Heat come into this one with a bit of over-confdidence on their side.





The series winning streak is at 9 in a row in favor of Miami, so you can see just why the Heat should be a bit "confident", but this is the NBA, and when something appears so obvious it usually is not.





Gonna look for the 76ers to play their best game is quite some time, and hunker down and give the Heat a tussle. The host in the series is 18-8 agatnst the spread, and tonight the Sixers add to that mark.





Take the points.





Take the points with the Mavericks too, as that 12-4 playoff underdog mark is too strong to overlook. The linemakers have made it hard on the favorites, as they are just asking them to cover too many points early on. I have a feeling they will "adjust" their numbers as we get further along this postseason, but for now their mistakes will be used to our advantage.





Dallas has come out and nailed it down in both games to date, and while Portland is tough as nails at home, I don't see the Blazers being 2 baskets better than the Mavs right now.





This one could very well go right down to the wire making the points all the more valuable.





I will side with the Mavericks in the underdog role to stay close to the Blazers tonight in Rip City.