VegasButcher - MLB
Houston Astros -108
Some people might not know his but the Astros ranked 3rd offensively against lefties last year. This team is built to hit for power and not much else, so of course they’ll be ‘hit or miss’ a lot. Well, facing a pitcher like Pomeranz who can’t reach 90 MPH with his fastball, could provide a few more ‘hits’ than ‘misses’ tonight. McHugh was a top-30 pitcher in my database last year and is coming off a solid outing on the road @ Texas. I’ll back him at home in this one as I believe the ‘Stros are undervalued tonight.
Colorado Rockies +100
Here is Tim Lincecum’s fastball velocity YoY since he’s been in the majors:
2007: 94 MPH
2008: 94 MPH
2009: 92 MPH
2010: 91 MPH
2011: 92 MPH
2012: 90 MPH
2013: 90 MPH
2014: 89.6 MPH
2015: 87.3 MPH
Holy cow, his average FB velocity was 87.3 MPH in his first start this year!! And now he gets to take on a Rockies lineup that is one of the better ones in the league. Unless a miracle happens tonight, I expect Colorado to hit Lincecum hard. As far as Matzek is concerned, he is filthy against lefties. Look as his career splits:
Vs L: 28% K%; 21% K-BB%; 4.1 K/BB rate; 0.3 HR/9; 2.4/2.6 FIP/xFIP
Vs R: 15% K%; 6% K-BB%; 1.6 K/BB rate; 0.8 HR/9; 4.3/4.5 FIP/xFIP
Matzek goes from an ‘elite’ pitcher against lefties, to a ‘replacement level’ one against righties. Good thing for him is that San Fran is a lefty-heavy lineup. Aoki, Panik, Belt, Blanco, and Crawford are all left-handed regulars. Pagan is a switch-hitter but he’s far better against righties than lefties in his career: .300/.350/.430 versus .260/.310/.400. Duffy has fewer than 100 PA’s in his career and Maxwell can’t hit any kind of pitching (.220 vs R and .231 vs L). The only real threat is Posey, who is expected back today. Matzek had a poor outing in his first start this year but I’m hoping for a ‘bounce-back’ tonight. Even if he struggles again, I’d be surprised if the Rox fail to plate a number of runs off Lincecum’s soft stuff in this one.
Houston Astros -108
Some people might not know his but the Astros ranked 3rd offensively against lefties last year. This team is built to hit for power and not much else, so of course they’ll be ‘hit or miss’ a lot. Well, facing a pitcher like Pomeranz who can’t reach 90 MPH with his fastball, could provide a few more ‘hits’ than ‘misses’ tonight. McHugh was a top-30 pitcher in my database last year and is coming off a solid outing on the road @ Texas. I’ll back him at home in this one as I believe the ‘Stros are undervalued tonight.
Colorado Rockies +100
Here is Tim Lincecum’s fastball velocity YoY since he’s been in the majors:
2007: 94 MPH
2008: 94 MPH
2009: 92 MPH
2010: 91 MPH
2011: 92 MPH
2012: 90 MPH
2013: 90 MPH
2014: 89.6 MPH
2015: 87.3 MPH
Holy cow, his average FB velocity was 87.3 MPH in his first start this year!! And now he gets to take on a Rockies lineup that is one of the better ones in the league. Unless a miracle happens tonight, I expect Colorado to hit Lincecum hard. As far as Matzek is concerned, he is filthy against lefties. Look as his career splits:
Vs L: 28% K%; 21% K-BB%; 4.1 K/BB rate; 0.3 HR/9; 2.4/2.6 FIP/xFIP
Vs R: 15% K%; 6% K-BB%; 1.6 K/BB rate; 0.8 HR/9; 4.3/4.5 FIP/xFIP
Matzek goes from an ‘elite’ pitcher against lefties, to a ‘replacement level’ one against righties. Good thing for him is that San Fran is a lefty-heavy lineup. Aoki, Panik, Belt, Blanco, and Crawford are all left-handed regulars. Pagan is a switch-hitter but he’s far better against righties than lefties in his career: .300/.350/.430 versus .260/.310/.400. Duffy has fewer than 100 PA’s in his career and Maxwell can’t hit any kind of pitching (.220 vs R and .231 vs L). The only real threat is Posey, who is expected back today. Matzek had a poor outing in his first start this year but I’m hoping for a ‘bounce-back’ tonight. Even if he struggles again, I’d be surprised if the Rox fail to plate a number of runs off Lincecum’s soft stuff in this one.
