Joe Gavazzi
Date: Wed, Apr 13, 2016 at 10:56 AM
Subject: All Plays for 4 13 16
To:
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
NBA
4% Memphis Grizzlies (+19)
3% Sacramento Kings (+15)
Current NBA Run 6-1 ATS!
WITH NEED YOU BLEED
Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets (-15) 8:05 ET
The Sacramento Kings close their season on Wednesday night, when they travel to Houston for this 8:05 ET start. For the Houston Rockets, their season will continue to the playoffs should they get this outright victory. Currently, Houston and Utah are tied for the No. 8 (and final) spot in the NBA Western Playoffs. Houston holds the tiebreaker over the Jazz, who play in the 10:35 ET slot against the Lakers. These teams have met 3 times this season with the results being high-scoring, competitive contests. Houston won the first game of the series with Sacto (116-110) in California, then followed it up with a (120-113) home victory. But, the Kings won the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] meeting in California (107-97). Clearly, the Kings believe they can play with the Rockets.
This line is bloated because of two factors. First is the injury list which finds key contributors for Sacramento (Cousins, Rondo and Collison) all scheduled to miss this game. But, it is also impacted by the Rockets’ need to win to make the playoffs. As we have seen repeatedly in all sports, it is a common theme that WITH NEED YOU BLEED. That is, it will be no surprise if the Rockets get this victory but fail to cover this extended impost.
Even with all-stars, Harden, at the point and Howard on the interior, Houston has greatly underachieved expectations this season. Three main reasons may attribute to this factor. First would be the selfish play of Harden and Howard, which has prohibited team chemistry and cohesion. Next is a defense that is among the worst in the league with 107 PPG allowed, which is better than only their opponent tonight. Combined with a posted total in this game of 222, it tells you all you need to know about the pace of this contest.
Again this season, the Sacramento Kings with a record of 33-48 have long been out of contention for an NBA playoff spot. Yet even without their superstar, Cousins, they have continued to play hard down the stretch. In that regard, they have posted a recent record of 10-3 ATS, 4-1 ATS recently. They even enter tonight with the momentum of consecutive victories, including a (105-101) win at Phoenix Monday night. In short, the Kings have NOT tossed the towel, figure to play hard in this regular season final and can also rely on the greatly improved play of Seth Curry to fill the void of Rondo and Collison. In the Kings’ consecutive wins, Curry has scored 20+ points and has averaged 18 PPG down the stretch in his final 6 games (only 5 PPG previous to that). In Saturday’s (114-112) win over OKC, Curry connected on 6/10 triples. In further imitating his more famous brother, Curry handed out 15 assists in Monday’s victory at Phoenix.
This has all the makings of a big dog cover for the Kings. Fueled by the poor defense by the Rockets, their need to win this game (rather than cover) and the teams’ pointspread personalities this year, which sees Houston 6-15 ATS as home chalk of 4 or more points, while the Kings are 15-7 ATS as a road dog of 6 or more points.
BIG DOG BOUNCEBACK
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden St. Warriors (-19) 10:35 ET
In this historic game, the Memphis Grizzlies travel north from Los Angeles to face the Golden St. Warriors in this 10:35 ET tipoff. These teams have played three times this season with Golden St. winning the first on this court (119-69) followed by a (100-84) victory in Memphis and then a surprising (100-99) escape as 13 point road chalk at Memphis last Saturday night.
Once holding a strong grip on the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference Playoff queue, the Grizzlies have folded like a cheap accordion in their late season meltdown. Look no further than the injury list, where their two best players (PG Conley and interior big man Gasol) went out for the season some 16 games ago. After that near miss vs. Golden St. on Saturday and with the knowledge that they would be playing the Warriors again tonight, I correctly predicted that Memphis would “mail it in” in their game vs. the Clippers last night looking forward to this contest. The (110-84) loss dropped the recent Memphis’ record to 3-13 SU. The loss of Conley and Gasol has been only the tip of the iceberg for the Grizz. They have used 28 players this year with 12 players missing a total of 291 games. Unheard of, unless you are the New Orleans Pelicans! If the Grizz do not win this game outright (unlikely on a court where Golden is 38-2 SU), they will be relegated to the No. 7 spot in the Playoffs with a match against powerful San Antonio. Though that fate seems inevitable, I do not believe the Grizz toss the towel in this one!
Aiding their cause will be the celebration that Golden St. will have if they are up by a comfortable margin late in the game. Should that be the case, as expected, I expect the back door to be wide open. The celebration for the anticipated 73[SUP]rd[/SUP] victory of the season will be underway, as Golden St. reaches their goal of eclipsing the 72 wins of the 1996 Chicago Bulls. Look for key contributors, such as Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and triple/double machine Draymond Green to be comfortably seated on the bench beside HC Kerr, as the celebration of the 73[SUP]rd[/SUP]win begins midway in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. A home court, where Golden St. dominated opponents in the first half of the season, has now dissolved into a venue that sees the Warriors enter tonight just 13-15 ATS as double digit home favorite. Plenty of room for Memphis to slip in under the number tonight, as Golden St. celebrates.
MLB
5% Washington Nationals (-1 ½ R/+105)
4% LA Dodgers (-155)
3% Cleveland Indians (-110)
MLB RED-ASS GAME OF THE DAY
Atlanta Braves (Wisler) at Washington Nationals (Strasburg) (-1 ½ R/+105) 7:05 ET
The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals continue their 4-game early week set, when they take the field at Nationals Park for a first pitch scheduled for 7:05 ET. After Washington won the Monday night game (6-4), the Nationals were leading (2-0) going to the 9[SUP]th[/SUP] inning last night. It seemed nearly a foregone conclusion that with 2 outs in the top of the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], that the Braves (winless for the season) would have little hope of scoring. But, a 2-out walk followed by a Kelly Johnson RBI double made it a 1 run game, before Mallex Smith struck out to end the contest. Unfortunately, that “meaningless” run precluded us from covering the run line in the contest. Nonetheless, it was the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] straight victory for Washington over Atlanta at Nationals Park and 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in the last 22 over all matchups between these 2 clubs.
Again last night, Atlanta’s impotent offense was nowhere to be found. They came up with just 6 hits in the (2-1) loss and remained with a sub-.300 slugging average, a nearly unfathomable number! Tonight, Atlanta sends Wisler to the mound. In his first outing this season, Wisler allowed 4 runs in 6 2/3 IP in a (7-4) loss to the Cardinals. Last year, Wisler was 2-2 in 4 starts vs. Washington. That included 0-2 from this mound, where he allowed 11 earned runs and 14 hits in only 5 2/3 IP. That certainly does not portend well for the Atlanta hopes of recording their first victory of the season or snapping the 13-game series site win streak of Washington. That is especially true considering tonight’s mound opponent.
Washington sends Stephen Strasburg to the mound, who looks to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2015, in which he was limited to just 23 starts. In his first game of this season vs. these Braves in Atlanta, Strasburg limited Atlanta to 6 singles and just 1 run in a (3-1) victory. That was a continuation of Strasburg’s late-season dominance of 2015, when in his final 10 starts of the season, he posted a 1.90 ERA. Strasburg has allowed just 1 run in 24 IP in winning 4 consecutive starts against the Braves. There is a good chance that continues tonight against an Atlanta offense, which is batting just .203 with a .291 slugging percentage.
We gladly lay the runs in this matchup knowing that 77 of 95 losses last year for Atlanta were by 2 or more runs, and that 5 of 7 losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. For Washington, 35 of 46 home victories last year were by 2 or more runs. Lay the runs with this series dominator in a game that features dichotomous momentum for each team.
Arizona D’Backs (R. De La Rosa) at LA Dodgers (A. Wood) (-155) 10:10 ET
MLB Red Ass Game of the Day No. 2 finds the Dodgers again hosting an Arizona team, who after trailing (1-0) through 5 IP yesterday, emerged with a (4-2) comeback win. That drops the Dodgers’ record against the D’Backs to 15-4 on this field and to 90/55/L the last 2+Y. Lack of runs does not figure to be a problem for the Dodgers today with De La Rosa on the mound. In his opening game this season, De La Rosa lasted just 3 1/3 IP, allowing 7 runs and 3 walks in a (14-6) loss to the Cubs. That was as extension of his poor recent current form, which finds De La Rosa failing to reach the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] inning in any of his last 6 starts with a 7.66 ERA. It is doubtful that turns around tonight against the Dodgers. Last year, De La Rosa was 0-3 vs. LAD with an 11.21 ERA.
Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) (-110) at Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) 7:10 ET
We are locked into backing Cleveland’s big 3 against the Rays this week. It did not work well last night, as Tampa Bay starter, Matt Moore, pitched one run, 5- hit ball for 7 innings. The Rays scratched out only 5 hits, but it was enough to result in a (5-1) victory. Tonight, look for the Rays’ offense to again have trouble getting untracked, as they face Carlos Carrasco. All Carrasco did the last time he faced the Rays from this mound was work 8 2/3 IP of no-hit ball with a 13/2 KBB ratio.