Service Plays Wednesday 3/30/11

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Brandon Lang
15 DIME
BANKROLL BUILDING
MONEY MOVE
#2 IN A ROW
Creighton
 

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The Sportsbook Killer Oklahoma City/Phoenix Over 212

The Bets That Win Charlotte -10 over Cleveland

LPW Sports Forecast Philadelphia -3 over Houston
 

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James Patrick

3* Milwaukee Bucks -4

The Milwaukee Bucks are (5-1-1) ATS in their last (7) games against a team with a losing straight-up record and the Bucks are (9-4) ATS in the last (13) meetings in Toronto with the Bucks a perfect (5-0) ATS in the last (5) meetings. The Raptors have been traveling and return home for this match-up with a (2-6) ATS record in their last (8) Wednesday games. The Toronto Raptors are (3-8) ATS in their last (11) against the NBA Central. We'll grab the Bucks in this as they grab a road win North of the Border.
 

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STREET ROSENTHAL
200* NBA* Charlotte Bobcats, -10
200* NBA* Milwaukee Bucks, -4.5
 

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The Duke's Sports

Oklahoma City over (210) for 2 Units

Suns have frittered away their season and on the brink of official elimination from playoff contention. It should come here. Usually teams that know their season is kaput will stop playing defense, in a subtle way and attempt to pad their stats for future contract negotiations. The Suns have exhibited these tendencies on a 4-1 O/U run over their 1-4 SU slide allowing about 112 ppg over that stretch. Oklahoma City, however, is going to the playoffs but are in a comfortable spot 5 games clear of Denver. The Thunder are 5-1 O/U as a road favorite in this spread range and surely won't mind trading baskets with Phoenix; after all, this series has gone 5-1 O/U. "Over" the call.
 

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Gold Sheet

IONA 74 - Santa Clara 72—​
No, this isn’t a reprise of the All-Catholic
national postseason tournament once held in the early ‘60s (
yes, there really
was such an event).
And we’re not sure what The Vatican thinks about this
CBI Final at New Rochelle featuring Jesuit (Santa Clara) and Christian Brothers
(Iona) institutions.
But we have a pretty good idea that the spread is a bit too
inflated for favored Iona to handle
.
If nothing else, the Broncos have a puncher’s chance simply because of
the presence of explosive G Kevin Foster (20.3 ppg), the nation’s leader in 3-
point attempts (9.9 pg), who has single-handedly destroyed some decent
opposition this season, such as Gonzaga (against whom Foster scored 36 on
Jan. 20) and SMU, in last Friday’s semifinals, when erupting for 35 points in
Dallas. Foster’s hot play has stretched through the last three games of the CIT,
as he has scored a whopping 32.7 ppg. It’s worth noting he gladly stepped
inside the arc against the overplaying Mustang defense last Friday and
connected on 8 of 10
two-point shots. It would help SCU, however, if frosh G
Evan Roquemore (the hero of the quarterfinal win with 30 points at nearby
USF) doesn’t repeat his 2-point, 0-for-10 shooting performance against SMU,
which didn’t end up costing the Broncos, but might be hard to overcome again
if Roquemore is outplayed by heady Gael PG Scott Machado (13.2 ppg),
whose 11 assists helped key Iona’s comeback win at East Tennessee State
Saturday in the semifinals.

And using the Bob Knight measuring stick​
, SCU’s gnarly, straight manto-
man defense (which would be applauded by The General) should also give
it a fighting chance, especially since the Broncs have some muscle with

physical 6-7 Aussie Ben Dowdell and rugged 6-6 juco Troy Payne to put up an
argument against the Gaels’ punishing 6-7 PF Michael Glover (18.3 ppg), who
does most of his damage in the paint and wrecked ETSU with 33 points in the
semis. Iona, however, does not have a lot of size in its 3-G lineup, and the
Gaels might have problems of their own matching up vs. SCU’s versatile 6-9
Canadian Marc Trasolini (12.8 ppg), who could find room to operate against
the slower Glover and his plodding frontline mate, Alejo Rodriguez.​
We
haven’t received the word from Pope Benedict, but it looks to us as if the nononsense
Broncos are worth a hard look plus the points.


 

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Gold Sheet

CHARLOTTE 100 - Cleveland 86—​
Cleveland has had enough trouble on
the road in second nights of back-to-backs (just 2-9 vs. line in role thus far)
without having to immediately make a turnaround from an emotional game vs.
LeBron and the Heat, last night’s opponents. Meanwhile, Charlotte digging in
for last stand and playoff push with a pair of clutch wins over Celtics and Knicks
before Monday’s crucial vs. the Bucks. Stephen Jackson’s return to the Bobcat
lineup a big plus for HC Paul Silas, and Charlotte not about to pass up two
chances to beat up on Cavs in the next week (they’ll also face off April 5 at “The
Q”) as it scrambles for a postseason slot. Bobcats won and covered earlier
Dec. 29 meeting at Time Warner Cable Arena, where Jackson was dominant
with 38 points. 10-CHA -7' 101-92 (198); 09-CLE -14' 90-79 (182), CHA +5 94-
87 (185), Cha +11' 91-88 (186), CHA +4' 110-93 (192)

Milwaukee 98 - TORONTO 91—​
Hard to believe any team could be playing
the spoiler against a side with a 29-43 record, but let’s see if Toronto is up to
delivering a lethal blow to Milwaukee’s playoff hopes in “least of the East” race
for the conference’s eighth and final playoff slot. And the Bucks might regain
the services of the long-absent Michael Redd, who has missed the past 14
months after dealing with dual knee surgeries, but might be able to provide a
spark to Milwaukee’s limited offense that has ranked near the bottom of NBA
scoring and shooting % stats all season. Bucks have won and covered first two
vs. Raptors, including an OT win at Air Canada Centre on Jan. 28 and an easier
18-point cruise in the land of bratwurst and beer on Feb. 8. Sources wonder,
however, if Toronto might be showing signs of unraveling amid all of the losing,
as HC Jay Triano fined Julian Wright for the latter refusing to enter last Friday’s
blowout loss at Golden State. With something at least on the line for Bucks,
expect a focused effort from Scott Skiles’ crew. 10-Mil -2' 116-110 (OT-192), MIL
-7' 92-74 (193); 09-MIL -4 117-95 (207), MIL -2' 113-107 (205), TOR -7 101-96 (206)

Miami 102 - WASHINGTON 86—​
Results in three earlier meetings vs.
Washington this season provide a pretty good indicator of Heat’s wandering
focus, with the Wizards managing to slip inside inflated double-digit prices on
each occasion. But Washington always an iffy recommendation, and Wizards
could be very shorthanded again if Nick Young’s recurring knee injury keeps
him out of the lineup for this one (as it is expected to do on Monday at Utah),
perhaps joining Andray Blatche, Rashard Lewis, and revelation Trevor Booker,
the Clemson rookie F and recent starter who also could be sidelined by knee
woes. Note, too, that Miami has also been subpar in second nights of back-tobacks
(just 7-10 vs. line in role), although Heat have covered on three previous
occasions after facing LeBron’s old Cleveland team (Tuesday night’s foe).
Considering how depleted Wizards might be, and Miami still seeking an
improved playoff seed (Heat just a half-game behind Boston for No. 2 East seed
as of Monday), LeBron & Co. capable of extending the margin if mood strikes.
10-MIA -12' 105-94 (197), Mia -12 95-94 (194), MIA -15 121-113 (203); 09-Mia
+2 93-89 (195), MIA -8 90-76 (185), Wash +7 94-84 (198), Mia -3 112-88 (193)

INDIANA 105 - Detroit 96—​
After “owning” the Pistons a year ago, Indiana
suddenly having all sorts of trouble vs. Detroit, failing to cover all three vs.
Pistons this season, including a potentially playoff-damaging 100-88 loss at
Auburn Hills last Saturday. That setback, on the heels of another vs. lowly
Sacramento the night before, has the alarm bells ringing again at Conseco
Fieldhouse, as Pacers’ lead for the 8
th and final East playoff slot was reduced to
a mere one game prior to Monday’s game vs. Boston. And Indiana’s recent
struggles have coincided with star F Danny Granger’s shooting slump (just 9 of
27 over the past two games).
Can we trust Detroit again? Not sure, as
beleaguered HC John Kuester has been doing some curious things with his
substitution patterns, with Rip Hamilton suddenly out of the doghouse and the
likes of Will Bynum and Charlie Villanueva sometimes sitting until the 4th Q,
when they enter as Mariano Rivera-like “closers” in the late going
(huh?).
Without knowing the status of Tracy McGrady or Chris Wilcox, not sure we are
ready to trust Pistons vs. desperate Pacers. 10-DET +1' 115-109 (OT-199),
IND -8 102-101 (204), DET -2 100-88 (203); 09-Ind +3' 105-93 (200), IND -3'
107-83 (200), IND -2 106-102 (203), Ind +4 98-83 (207) CABLE TV—ESPN

ATLANTA 97 - Orlando 95—​
Remember, it wasn’t long ago that this
matchup was an absolute nightmare for Atlanta, as its small frontline couldn’t
deal with Dwight Howard, and Hawks absorbed several one-sided beatings,
including some particularly humiliating scorelines in the 2009 playoffs. But the
series fortunes have turned around since, especially this season, with Atlanta

winning 2 of 3 SU vs. Magic and covering each of those games (all before New
Year’s, by the way). And maybe Hawks have figured a way to impede Howard,
who scored only 16.5 ppg and was guilty of 12 turnovers in the last two
meetings, both Atlanta wins. Although big Dwight has been on fire lately (25.8
ppg, 69% from floor, and 16.4 rpg last five thru March 27), not sure what sort of
focus we’ll get from Magic, especially with a good chance that Jameer Nelson
could be sidelined after spraining his knee last Friday vs. the Nets, and Orlando
perhaps not eager to show Hawks too much before their likely playoff matchup
that will commence in a couple of weeks. As long as Joe Johnson (thumb) back
in Atlanta lineup, would give host Hawks a hard look. 10-ORL -9 93-89 (193),
Atl +6' 80-74 (188), ATL +2' 91-81 (189); 09-Orl +3' 93-76 (198), ORL -3' 113-
81 (196), ORL -5' 104-86 (195), ATL -1 86-84 (200)​
NEW YORK 97 - New Jersey 96—​
The fallout over the trade for Carmelo
Anthony has splashed mud on the boots of Knick GM Donnie Walsh, who is
coming to grips with the fact the N.Y. roster has more than a few holes. The
Knicks have lost 9 of last 10 SU and vs. the number prior to facing Orlando on
Monday, and until they find a pivot who can deter opposing teams, Walsh will
have some sleepless nights. Amar'e Stoudemire isn’t a center (he got
outplayed by
Kwame Brown in the loss at Charlotte Saturday), and the fact is 4
of the 9 losses in recent downturn came against teams not currently in playoff
position. New York has won and covered both games against New Jersey this
season, but both teams will have a different look this time around. The N.Y.
makeover is well-publicized, and N.J. has added PG Deron Williams, expected
to play in this game after sitting out the last 5 with a wrist injury. Eventually
Williams will likely be shut down, but he wants to play in Madison Square
Garden. With C Brook Lopez (21 ppg in March) and PF Kris Humphries (15 ppg,
15 rpg in March) playing at their best, Knick frontline defensive shortcomings
will be a problem. 10-NY -5 111-100 (205), Ny -2' 105-95 (206); 09-Ny +2 98-
91 (194), NY -4' 106-97 (206), NJ +2' 104-95 (198), Nj +8 113-93 (210)

Chicago 114 - MINNESOTA 97—​
Chicago has covered 4 of last 5 as a road
favorite, as go-with Bulls are gaining momentum down the stretch. Chicago has
won 12 of last 13 SU and opened a 2-game lead for the best record in the East
over Boston. Generous pointspreads have allowed Minnesota to cover 4 of last
5 despite the fact Kurt Rambis’ squad hasn’t won since March 11. The Bulls
have covered last 4 meetings against Minny, including a dominating
performance in Chicago back on Dec. 11, coasting to a 21-point halftime lead.
The Timberwolves were led by Kevin Love in that one with 23 points and 15
boards, and he has just returned to practice after missing several games with a
groin injury. Love’s season might be ended as a precautionary measure, and
not having him against Bull big men Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah isn’t good
for Rambis. Minny allows league-worst 107 ppg, while Chicago is right behind
Boston in fewest points and holds foes to lowest FG%. Look for Chicago to
knock down an easy victory and maintain lead in East.
"Totals" note: Chicago
“over” in 5 straight prior to hosting Philly Monday.
10-CHI -9' 113-82 (207); 09-
CHI -8' 110-96 (200), Chi -2 100-94 (205)

HHH​
MEMPHIS 109 - Golden St. 91—Tech trends align in this game, as
Golden State has gone south on the road, dropping 6 in a row against the points
as a visitor. Memphis, conversely, is one of the strongest home teams against
the number in the league, covering 9 of its last 11 at the FedEx Forum (23-13
there on the season). The Warriors covered the first two meetings this season,
but the teams haven’t met since Nov. 26, and it was just after that when the
Grizzlies started to jell, covering 40 of 57 games since Nov. 29. Warriors have
yielded 109 ppg in their last 10 games, but it’s no big surprise when Golden
State gives up points. Conversely, Lionel Hollins’ Grizzlies have allowed just 93
ppg in last 10 at home. Memphis backcourt of PG Mike Conley and defensive
specialist G Tony Allen are capable of slowing down Warriors’ prolific guard duo
of Stephen Curry & Monta Ellis, and Zach Randolph has remained remarkably
steady all season. Percentage lies with Grizzlies covering again. 10-GS -4 115-
109 (219), MEM -7 116-111 (211); 09-GS -6 113-105 (225), MEM -7' 121-108
(222), MEM -9' 123-107 (233), GS +1' 128-110 (233)

Portland 98 - NEW ORLEANS 94—​
This is a key game in the playoff chase,
as Portland (currently the 6
th seed) and New Orleans (7th) jockey down the
stretch.
Don’t believe what pundits say about the Blazers wanting to face the
Lakers, either.
At first glance, the ACL injury to F David West looked like a death
blow to the Hornets’ season.
Not so fast, my friend. F Carl Landry, acquired
around the trade deadline, responded to his first two starts in place of West with
19 points, 6 rebs. & 6 steals in keying a win at Phoenix, and followed that with
a 24-point, 10-rebound game in Sunday’s loss at the Lakers. Portland is
adjusting to some changes, as F Gerald Wallace was inserted into the starting
lineup and LaMarcus Aldridge is playing at center, with Marcus Camby coming
off the bench. HC Nate McMillan has also had to work former team leader
Brandon Roy back into the rotation. Wallace has scored 27 ppg and pulled
down 8 rpg in his last 3, while Nicolas Batum has scored 18 ppg in his last 5.
Moreover, the Blazers have allowed just 91 ppg in their last 10 prior to visiting
San Antonio on Monday. 10-NO -4 107-87 (188), No +4 97-78 (189), POR -5'
103-96 (183); 09-Port -3 86-78 (188), No +2' 98-97 (188), Port -3' 112-101 (194)

DENVER 105 - Sacramento 90—
 

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DR BOB

Wednesday NBA Opinion
Chicago (-9 ½) over MINNESOTA

Rotation #515 – 5:05 pm Pacific
Chicago applies to a 159-78-4 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation that is based on their loss to Philly a couple of nights ago. Minnesota is only 27-59-1 ATS hosting winning teams the last 4 seasons (7-15 ATS this season), including 5-25 ATS against teams off a loss. My ratings favor Chicago by only 9 points and the situation that applies to the Bulls isn’t as good for favorites of more than 8 points, so I’ll just lean with Chicago in this game.

Wednesday College Opinion
OREGON (-5) over Creighton

Rotation #528 – 7 pm Pacific
Oregon lost game 1 of this best of 3 series at Creighton, but my ratings favor the Ducks by 6 ½ points based on current lineups for each team. I’ll lean with Oregon at -5 or less.


He also has 2 NBA plays tonight??
 

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Hey guys, not sre if he gave them, but did anyone happen to catch Mike Francesa's baseball over unders today? Just curious, he usualy nails these plays every year. Thanks!!
 

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Hey guys, not sre if he gave them, but did anyone happen to catch Mike Francesa's baseball over unders today? Just curious, he usualy nails these plays every year. Thanks!!

francesa--
nyy ov 91.5
minn ov 85.5
oak ov 82.5
philly un 97.5
pitt un 68
cincy un 85.5
 

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Vegas Sharp

2-0 Yesterday

# 4 Units #
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line in non-conference games, off an upset win by 15 points or more as a road underdog.

25-6 (80%) since 1997.

Play On - 529 Santa Clara +5.5 (1st Half)


# 3 Units #
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1st half line in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.

59-26 (69%) since 1997.
1-0 (100%) this year.

Play On - 520 New Orleans Hornets +1 (1st Half)


P/C
 

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