Jason Sample 3/16-3/19:
2U:
UNC/Iowa St./Baylor/MichState(+114)
1U:
No. Florida -3
Illinois St. -3.5
Illinois St/Sam Houston St. (+105)
Northeastern +12.5
UNC -10.5
Cincy +6/VCU +8 (+105)
St. John's +8/UNC -6 (+101)
Indiana +10/W. Virginia PK (+101)
LVille/W.Va./UNC (+111)
Charleston Southern +12
Butler/Texas U124.5
LSU/NCST O139.5
2U:
UNC/Iowa St./Baylor/MichState(+114)
1U:
No. Florida -3
Illinois St. -3.5
Illinois St/Sam Houston St. (+105)
Northeastern +12.5
UNC -10.5
Cincy +6/VCU +8 (+105)
St. John's +8/UNC -6 (+101)
Indiana +10/W. Virginia PK (+101)
LVille/W.Va./UNC (+111)
Charleston Southern +12
Butler/Texas U124.5
LSU/NCST O139.5
VegasButcher (NBA)
Detroit Pistons -2
I know the Pistons are on a b2b here but they’ve had 2-days off prior to yesterday’s home win against the Grizzlies and Greg Monroe will be back tonight after sitting out yesterday’s contest. I don’t see ‘fatigue’ being as big of an issue. Last time the Pistons faced Philly they were on a b2b AND in a 4in5 spot, as clearly fatigue was a major factor: Augustin was 0-7 from the floor, Drummond didn’t even register 20 minutes of playing time (foul trouble), and the team barely shot over 30% in that game. Reggie Jackson is bigger and more durable than Augustin, and I like him to lead the Pistons to another strong game here. Pistons are an excellent rebounding team (3rd in ORB% and 11th in DRB%) and should be able to outmuscle this soft Sixers squad in the paint. In addition, Detroit is 6th in TO-rate offensively. That’s a big factor as Philly is an excellent press-team defensively, relying on forcing TO’s (#2 in TO-rate) for their solid Def-Efficiency rating (12th). If they’re not forcing TO’s though, this defense doesn’t do anything else well and is pretty vulnerable overall. Pistons are a bad matchup for this Philly squad, and after a confidence-boosting win yesterday that ended a 10-game losing streak, I expect another strong performance from Detroit tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
Last time Miami hosted Cleveland, they beat them on Christmas Day as the team really stepped up their play. Of course the Heat proceeded to lose to a Western Conference power-house Memphis Grizzlies 2 days later in a let-down spot. Will history repeat itself? Miami is once again coming off a huge home win against the Cavs, and now a few days later they’re once again facing one of the best teams in the West. I expect another ‘let down’ spot here as Miami is one of those inconsistent teams that fails to sustain top notch effort on a game to game basis. Portland ranks 4th defensively and 2nd in eFG%-allowed. That’s a big factor here as Heat tends to struggle to score points at times. In today’s spot, I don’t see their offense being as prolific as they looked against the Cavs (106 points on 55% from the field). With Blazers coming off a loss and the West standings getting tighter and tighter by the day, expect a strong showing from Portland in this one.
Milwaukee Bucks +6
Some people might back the Spurs tonight due to the fact that Popovich went off on his team yesterday but I doubt that will give this old Spurs squad some sort of a ‘boost’. Playing on a b2b and 3in4 spot, and coming off an OT game, this is a pretty difficult physical spot for them. Milwaukee is also on a b2b but this is a younger team and they’ve also had 2-days off prior to their game @ New Orleans last night. They should be more rested while also playing at home. While some Spurs-backers will point out that San Antonio is off a terrible loss to a bad Knicks team, let’s not forget that the Bucks are on a 3-game losing streak. I think they want to win this game just as much as the Spurs do. The question is do they have a chance? Of course they do. Milwaukee ranks 2nd in Def-Efficiency, 1st in defensive TO-rate, and 8th in eFG%-allowed. This is an extremely tough defense to go up against. Besides being in a tough physical spot, Spurs are also without Manu Ginobili (one of their best scorers) and Aron Baynes (their starting center). Depth is an issue for this team right now and coming off an OT game expect some third and even forth options to log some decent minutes tonight: Belinelli, Bonner, Joseph, etc. My model has this game at -1 San Antonio, accounting for the loss of Ginobili and Spurs being in a tough spot. There’s pure line value on the Bucks here, similar to yesterday’s game @ New Orleans. Milwaukee is now only 7 – 13 ATS in the 2nd half but this is the right time to ‘invest’ in them as we’re getting terrific value on their spreads right now.
Washington Wizards +3.5
When these teams played on 12/14 in Washington the Wizards were -11.5 home favorites. With a typical adjustment for home/away (~ 3 points for home-court) I’d expect the Wizards to be about -5.5 favorites on the road. Today, they’re +3.5 point underdogs on the road, a change of 14-points in the line. Important to note that in the first meeting, Favors was out for Utah but Kanter played in his spot (Gobert started that game also and logged 31 minutes). Favors is a better player than Kanter but of course the drop off between the two shouldn’t count for this many points. So what is going here with this line? Either the Bookmakers released a really bad line in the first meeting or we have a lot of value on the road underdog in this one. Either way, I think the Wizards are a bad matchup for the Jazz. Utah’s advantage lately has been their ability to dominate with Gobert and Favors. They physically wear out opponents and control the paint. Well, that advantage won’t be as big tonight. Wizards are a team that has excellent big men in Nene and Gortat, they rank 3rd in DRB-rate, and they have the 8th ranked defense (6th in eFG%-allowed). Wall is a matchup nightmare for most teams but against Exum/Burke he should absolutely dominate. And of course Beal is pronounced to be fully healthy now, especially after logging 39 minutes and going 8 for 13 from the field in his last game. Utah is on a 11-2 run but they’re becoming over-valued now as Bookmakers are inflating the spread in their games. Wizards are on a 4-game winning run themselves, and I think we’re going to see a very close game here with points being very valuable late in the game.
Detroit Pistons -2
I know the Pistons are on a b2b here but they’ve had 2-days off prior to yesterday’s home win against the Grizzlies and Greg Monroe will be back tonight after sitting out yesterday’s contest. I don’t see ‘fatigue’ being as big of an issue. Last time the Pistons faced Philly they were on a b2b AND in a 4in5 spot, as clearly fatigue was a major factor: Augustin was 0-7 from the floor, Drummond didn’t even register 20 minutes of playing time (foul trouble), and the team barely shot over 30% in that game. Reggie Jackson is bigger and more durable than Augustin, and I like him to lead the Pistons to another strong game here. Pistons are an excellent rebounding team (3rd in ORB% and 11th in DRB%) and should be able to outmuscle this soft Sixers squad in the paint. In addition, Detroit is 6th in TO-rate offensively. That’s a big factor as Philly is an excellent press-team defensively, relying on forcing TO’s (#2 in TO-rate) for their solid Def-Efficiency rating (12th). If they’re not forcing TO’s though, this defense doesn’t do anything else well and is pretty vulnerable overall. Pistons are a bad matchup for this Philly squad, and after a confidence-boosting win yesterday that ended a 10-game losing streak, I expect another strong performance from Detroit tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
Last time Miami hosted Cleveland, they beat them on Christmas Day as the team really stepped up their play. Of course the Heat proceeded to lose to a Western Conference power-house Memphis Grizzlies 2 days later in a let-down spot. Will history repeat itself? Miami is once again coming off a huge home win against the Cavs, and now a few days later they’re once again facing one of the best teams in the West. I expect another ‘let down’ spot here as Miami is one of those inconsistent teams that fails to sustain top notch effort on a game to game basis. Portland ranks 4th defensively and 2nd in eFG%-allowed. That’s a big factor here as Heat tends to struggle to score points at times. In today’s spot, I don’t see their offense being as prolific as they looked against the Cavs (106 points on 55% from the field). With Blazers coming off a loss and the West standings getting tighter and tighter by the day, expect a strong showing from Portland in this one.
Milwaukee Bucks +6
Some people might back the Spurs tonight due to the fact that Popovich went off on his team yesterday but I doubt that will give this old Spurs squad some sort of a ‘boost’. Playing on a b2b and 3in4 spot, and coming off an OT game, this is a pretty difficult physical spot for them. Milwaukee is also on a b2b but this is a younger team and they’ve also had 2-days off prior to their game @ New Orleans last night. They should be more rested while also playing at home. While some Spurs-backers will point out that San Antonio is off a terrible loss to a bad Knicks team, let’s not forget that the Bucks are on a 3-game losing streak. I think they want to win this game just as much as the Spurs do. The question is do they have a chance? Of course they do. Milwaukee ranks 2nd in Def-Efficiency, 1st in defensive TO-rate, and 8th in eFG%-allowed. This is an extremely tough defense to go up against. Besides being in a tough physical spot, Spurs are also without Manu Ginobili (one of their best scorers) and Aron Baynes (their starting center). Depth is an issue for this team right now and coming off an OT game expect some third and even forth options to log some decent minutes tonight: Belinelli, Bonner, Joseph, etc. My model has this game at -1 San Antonio, accounting for the loss of Ginobili and Spurs being in a tough spot. There’s pure line value on the Bucks here, similar to yesterday’s game @ New Orleans. Milwaukee is now only 7 – 13 ATS in the 2nd half but this is the right time to ‘invest’ in them as we’re getting terrific value on their spreads right now.
Washington Wizards +3.5
When these teams played on 12/14 in Washington the Wizards were -11.5 home favorites. With a typical adjustment for home/away (~ 3 points for home-court) I’d expect the Wizards to be about -5.5 favorites on the road. Today, they’re +3.5 point underdogs on the road, a change of 14-points in the line. Important to note that in the first meeting, Favors was out for Utah but Kanter played in his spot (Gobert started that game also and logged 31 minutes). Favors is a better player than Kanter but of course the drop off between the two shouldn’t count for this many points. So what is going here with this line? Either the Bookmakers released a really bad line in the first meeting or we have a lot of value on the road underdog in this one. Either way, I think the Wizards are a bad matchup for the Jazz. Utah’s advantage lately has been their ability to dominate with Gobert and Favors. They physically wear out opponents and control the paint. Well, that advantage won’t be as big tonight. Wizards are a team that has excellent big men in Nene and Gortat, they rank 3rd in DRB-rate, and they have the 8th ranked defense (6th in eFG%-allowed). Wall is a matchup nightmare for most teams but against Exum/Burke he should absolutely dominate. And of course Beal is pronounced to be fully healthy now, especially after logging 39 minutes and going 8 for 13 from the field in his last game. Utah is on a 11-2 run but they’re becoming over-valued now as Bookmakers are inflating the spread in their games. Wizards are on a 4-game winning run themselves, and I think we’re going to see a very close game here with points being very valuable late in the game.
Carson K (CBB)
North Florida -3
I believe they will have the best player on the court in Dallas Moore. I also like the idea that they played a very tough out of conference schedule, all on the road (NW lost by 2, Purdue won by 3, S. Crlna, FlaSt & Bama. . They have 5 players that average Double Digits. They have the Gaurd (Moore)15.9pts and they also have size, Beach 6'8" 12.5pts, Davenport 6'8" 11.5pts, Nesbitt 6'6" 10.8pts & Danieals 6'7" 10pts. Also, come the end of the game they can make their foul shots, hitting over 72% from the foul line. Now I may be jumping the gun a little bit here but I also think they can give Duke a run for their money (with the pts of course lol).
Boise State +4.5
Dayton playing at Dayton, right, what a frickin JOKE !!! The Flyers made a nice little run last year and that's what the average better remembers. They also look at Boise as a Football school. I believe if this line was 6 or 6.5 people would still be betting Dayton heavy, right? So why is it only 4.5? What do we know about Boise? Do they have size? We know Dayton is on the smaller side. Boise does have 2 big guys that can play, Duncan 6'8" & Webb 6'9".
Can Boise shoot? Boise is also one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the tourny (39%). Derrick Marks is hitting 44%, while the two big guys are hitting, Webb 42% & Duncan 39%. Who comes out and guards those 2 big guys for Dayton when they're putting up threes? Derrick Marks is one of the better players in the country that most people never heard of.. I love having a senior guard running the show for me. He just came off a poor shooting night against Wyoming and I don't see that happening again. I look for him to bounce back strong in this one and keep it close right to the end. Boise is also 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
One last thing. Does rest or fatigue play a factor in this game? Boise last played on Friday. Dayton just played on Sunday after playing 3 straight games.
North Florida -3
I believe they will have the best player on the court in Dallas Moore. I also like the idea that they played a very tough out of conference schedule, all on the road (NW lost by 2, Purdue won by 3, S. Crlna, FlaSt & Bama. . They have 5 players that average Double Digits. They have the Gaurd (Moore)15.9pts and they also have size, Beach 6'8" 12.5pts, Davenport 6'8" 11.5pts, Nesbitt 6'6" 10.8pts & Danieals 6'7" 10pts. Also, come the end of the game they can make their foul shots, hitting over 72% from the foul line. Now I may be jumping the gun a little bit here but I also think they can give Duke a run for their money (with the pts of course lol).
Boise State +4.5
Dayton playing at Dayton, right, what a frickin JOKE !!! The Flyers made a nice little run last year and that's what the average better remembers. They also look at Boise as a Football school. I believe if this line was 6 or 6.5 people would still be betting Dayton heavy, right? So why is it only 4.5? What do we know about Boise? Do they have size? We know Dayton is on the smaller side. Boise does have 2 big guys that can play, Duncan 6'8" & Webb 6'9".
Can Boise shoot? Boise is also one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the tourny (39%). Derrick Marks is hitting 44%, while the two big guys are hitting, Webb 42% & Duncan 39%. Who comes out and guards those 2 big guys for Dayton when they're putting up threes? Derrick Marks is one of the better players in the country that most people never heard of.. I love having a senior guard running the show for me. He just came off a poor shooting night against Wyoming and I don't see that happening again. I look for him to bounce back strong in this one and keep it close right to the end. Boise is also 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
One last thing. Does rest or fatigue play a factor in this game? Boise last played on Friday. Dayton just played on Sunday after playing 3 straight games.
GC; NBA Play
Hump day card has 2 Powerful NIT Plays Including a 100% First round Super System. In the NBA its the 100% Game of the Week in the Late game Hawks vs Warriors and an Early Play with a 33-0 Power Angle. NBA Play below.
The NBA Power system play is on the Toronto Raptors. Game 606 at 7:35 eastern. The Raptors fit a nice system here that plays on rested home favorites that are off a road dog win and covered by 21 or more and scored 110 or more points, vs an opponent that lost and failed to cover at home and scored 90 or more like Minnesota. These teams are winning by an average 15 points per game long term. The Raptors have owned this series here at home covering 9 of 10. The Wolves are 0-6 ats on the road of late and 0-5 ats if they were dogs in their last game more recently. The winning team in this series has covered 30 of the last 31 times. Take Toronto. On Hump day its a Powerful card with the highest rated 100% NIT First Round play and a 95% Dog system. In the NBA was have the 100% Game of the Week in the last game between Atlanta and Golden St and a 33-0 Early Power Angle play. Jump on now and pout this Exclusive data on your side and get on the "Giving" end of hump day. For the Bonus Play. Take Toronto. GC
Hump day card has 2 Powerful NIT Plays Including a 100% First round Super System. In the NBA its the 100% Game of the Week in the Late game Hawks vs Warriors and an Early Play with a 33-0 Power Angle. NBA Play below.
The NBA Power system play is on the Toronto Raptors. Game 606 at 7:35 eastern. The Raptors fit a nice system here that plays on rested home favorites that are off a road dog win and covered by 21 or more and scored 110 or more points, vs an opponent that lost and failed to cover at home and scored 90 or more like Minnesota. These teams are winning by an average 15 points per game long term. The Raptors have owned this series here at home covering 9 of 10. The Wolves are 0-6 ats on the road of late and 0-5 ats if they were dogs in their last game more recently. The winning team in this series has covered 30 of the last 31 times. Take Toronto. On Hump day its a Powerful card with the highest rated 100% NIT First Round play and a 95% Dog system. In the NBA was have the 100% Game of the Week in the last game between Atlanta and Golden St and a 33-0 Early Power Angle play. Jump on now and pout this Exclusive data on your side and get on the "Giving" end of hump day. For the Bonus Play. Take Toronto. GC
