4* #729 PITTSBURGH over WEST VIRGINIA
With an early market surge running West Virginia into double figures
for this one it should come as absolutely no surprise that we are in
play ? in cashing both tickets behind Pittsburgh as road underdogs in
January, and two of three against the Mountaineers as home favorites
at the same time (the only loss being a bitter half-point ATS failure
with Ohio State, which led by 15 on this court before finally falling
by six), there are market biases that we can exploit. This is more of
the same.
We have used the ?Tough Out? moniker for Jamie Dixon and his Panthers
so many times through the years that a long explanation would be
redundant, but the short synopsis is that you have an outstanding
tactician on the sidelines who has consistently recruited hard-nosed
players, the kind needed to have success on the difficult Big East
trail. That has led to a sparkling 20-9 ATS run as a conference road
underdog since he took over the program, and note that in those seven
seasons the Panthers are 6-4 <i>straight-up</i> when facing a Top 10
team on the road. This, from starting C Gary McGhee, sums up their
attitude well heading into Morgantown - <i>"We enjoy the experience.
It's a hostile environment. It's pretty difficult to play there. The
fans get loud. We play harder when the fans come at you. It gets you
pumped up and your adrenaline going. It's something good for us."</i>
And with Jermaine Dixon returning after missing Sunday?s loss at
South Florida (the Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS with him on the court since
mid-December), the pieces are in place to make a serious challenge.
The West Virginia issues continue to be there ? without a true PG or
a true C this is a team loaded with talent that will be less than the
seeming sum of its parts because of the awkward fit. They are
particularly vulnerable against smaller and quicker teams, which is
tonight?s matchup, and only their resiliency enabled them to overcome
second-half deficits to escape with those close wins here vs. Ohio
State, Louisville and Marquette, which came by a combined nine
points. With just seven bench points in the last two games they are
not going to wear this class of opponent down (Deniz Kilicli will
make his debut tonight, but is not ready to be much of a factor yet),
and 68.7 percent free throw shooting does not grow margins late.
4* #767 EVANSVILLE over CREIGHTON
As we head into the second round of conference play some one of our
favorite concepts in all of sports come into play, and this one fits
on multiple fronts ? the ?revenge? game that is not really about
revenge at all; and improving teams that have started so poorly that
the radar screens never will pick them up. Evansville is the ticket
on both fronts.
First the ?revenge? concept. When a team is winless in conference
play, and has already lost at home to their opponent, they are not
going to bring the mindset to get even in the rematch. But it is not
about the underdog. Instead it is about the favorite that just can
not find the spark to play hard enough to blow out a team that they
have already beaten on the road. These are among the toughest
settings for a coach to create motivation. And for Creighton that
means even more than it usually would ? the Blue Jays are a limited
bunch that has to play with a lot of passion for anything to come
easily. Dana Altman?s bunch may be 6-5 in MVC play, but note that
those wins came by a combined total of just 25 points. They have a
winning record through 11 league games despite being out-scored by 16
points, and the explosiveness just is not there to turn that around ?
Kenny Lawson Jr. is the only Blue Jay scoring in double figures in
MVC games, and they are shooting just 41.2 percent from the field and
29.7 beyond the arc. And that includes nine games with P?Allen
Stinnett on the court.
Yes, Evansville is winless in the conference, which is what can
happen to a young team in a tough league. But whereas veteran teams
can lose heart as their season slips away, it can be the opposite for
a young squad, which can consider each game to be a building block
for next season. In going 5-1 ATS as double-figure underdogs we are
seeing the Purple Aces compete hard each night, and coach Marty
Simmons lays it out well - <i>?This has been a very resilient group.
This lack of success has been a learning process for all of us. The
guys still continue to try their very best. I believe we're getting
better, although we haven't been able to get over the hump and made
enough plays to win games. But this is a young team that has done a
good job of staying together. It's still eager to come to practice
every day.''</i>
Evansville does not have to play all that well to cover this spread ?
just play hard, and force a mediocre and listless Creighton team to
have to play a nearly flawless game to get this kind of margin.
5* #717 SAN ANTONIO over SACRAMENTO
The San Antonio Spurs may be a bit long in the tooth when it comes to
taking on the NBA?s true elite, which obviously has to impact their
power ratings as the results come in, but that only leads to the
wrong line adjustment for settings such as this one. When stepping
down in class it is all about their savvy to exploit weak opponents,
and there can not be a better tribute to that than their 16-0 SU and
12-3-1 ATS tallies against teams that currently sport losing records.
Now they bring us one of our favorite settings ? that rare case in
which the superior team takes the weak sister seriously, and that
means that we can step things up.
The Spurs are embarking on that annual ?rodeo? excursion that will
not see them play another home game for three weeks, but because they
have done it so often it has turned into more of a positive than a
negative (from Gregg Popovich - ?In our opinion, it's a great thing
for us to have the rodeo trip. We usually try to coalesce during that
time, and with all the new players, it's probably the best thing that
can happen to us, to just be on our own, without any
distractions??</i>) They have two full days to prepare a game plan
for a Sacramento team that they have dissected twice in double-figure
wins, scoring 231 points on 56.6 percent shooting, and off of
Sunday?s home loss to Denver they will bring a high level of
intensity to go with that game plan.
Meanwhile the Kings are a mess. They are just 2-15 in their last 17
games, beating a Denver team without Chauncey Billups and a Golden
State team without Monta Ellis and a host of others. Even with all
hands on deck every night it was going to be an awkward process as
they put a chemistry together, but with Tyreke Evans, Beno Udrih and
Kevin Martin all losing time to injuries there has been no ability to
mesh. It is that lack of chemistry that the Spurs can exploit once
again, breaking down a soft defense for easy shots with their
offensive precision, and that enables them to easily pull away in
this one.
5* #722 L.A. LAKERS/CHARLOTTE Under
When two of the best defenses in the NBA (the Lakers are #2 and the
Bobcats #5 on our best set of ratings) go head-to-head we do not
expect to see many easy shots. But when the shot count itself is
going to be low that accentuates that issue even more, and it leads
us to an easy Under call in a game in which neither side brings the
energy or the will to force any tempo.
Even if his Bobcats were fresh, Larry Brown knows where to go with
this matchup ? they upset the Lakers in both meetings in his first
year of running the show LY, with the two games playing Under by a
collective 24 points in regulation. He is absolutely looking for more
of the same here in terms of tempo, especially with his team in the
last leg of a draining six-game road trip, a trip that started with
only one day off after they had faced the Hawks and Magic in
back-to-back games.
But Charlotte may be the fresher team tonight. The Lakers have had
only one day off since coming back from that arduous eight-game
caravan through, and this will be the 9th court change in 14 days. We
already saw the toll that was taking in terms of tempo near the end
of the trip, with the last three games playing Under by counts of 18,
15.5 and 12.5, and with those last two outings at Boston and Memphis
being draining affairs that each went to the final buzzer, they are
not going to have the legs for any kind of pace here. But that will
suit Phil Jackson fine ? he can rely on one of the best half-court
defenses in the game to shut down a Bobcat offense that has struggled
to score when stepping up in class, and win this one by grinding
instead of setting off fireworks.
Ferringo NCAAB 2/03/10
4-Unit Play. Take #766 Northern Iowa (-5.5) over Wichita State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #756 Baylor (-11) over Iowa State (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2-Unit Play. Take #754 Charlotte (-7) over George Washington (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2-Unit Play. Take #780 Colorado (+14) over Kansas (9 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #727 George Mason (Pk) over Georgia State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #735 Richmond (-4.5) over St. Joseph’s (7 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #762 Rice (-3) over Tulane (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #786 Utah State (-15.5) over Idaho (11 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
These are 5-point teasers. And if we don't manage a profit with these tonight they will likely be retired from my capping repertoire, making this kind of a "last hurrah" night for these types of bets:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #769 Missouri State (+8) over Southern Illinois (8 p.m.) AND Take #744 Akron (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #737 N.C. State (+10.5) over Virginia (7 p.m.) AND Take #756 Baylor (-6) over Iowa State (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #781 UNLV (-3) over Wyoming (10 p.m.) AND Take #744 Akron (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #786 Utah State (-11) over Idaho (11 p.m.) AND Take #754 Charlotte (-2) over George Washington (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #783 Houston (+12) over UTEP (9 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3) AND Take #766 Northern Iowa (-0.5) over Wichita State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #780 Colorado (+19) over Kansas (9 p.m.) AND Take #724 Ohio State (-9.5) over Penn State (6:30 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #752 Marquette (-12.5) over DePaul (7 p.m.) AND Take #786 Utah State (-11) over Idaho (11 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #745 South Florida (+17.5) over Georgetown (7 p.m.) AND Take #733 Xavier (-2.5) over Massachusetts (7 p.m.)
4-Unit Play. Take #766 Northern Iowa (-5.5) over Wichita State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #756 Baylor (-11) over Iowa State (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2-Unit Play. Take #754 Charlotte (-7) over George Washington (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
2-Unit Play. Take #780 Colorado (+14) over Kansas (9 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #727 George Mason (Pk) over Georgia State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #735 Richmond (-4.5) over St. Joseph’s (7 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #762 Rice (-3) over Tulane (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #786 Utah State (-15.5) over Idaho (11 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
These are 5-point teasers. And if we don't manage a profit with these tonight they will likely be retired from my capping repertoire, making this kind of a "last hurrah" night for these types of bets:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #769 Missouri State (+8) over Southern Illinois (8 p.m.) AND Take #744 Akron (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #737 N.C. State (+10.5) over Virginia (7 p.m.) AND Take #756 Baylor (-6) over Iowa State (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #781 UNLV (-3) over Wyoming (10 p.m.) AND Take #744 Akron (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #786 Utah State (-11) over Idaho (11 p.m.) AND Take #754 Charlotte (-2) over George Washington (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #783 Houston (+12) over UTEP (9 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3) AND Take #766 Northern Iowa (-0.5) over Wichita State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 3)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #780 Colorado (+19) over Kansas (9 p.m.) AND Take #724 Ohio State (-9.5) over Penn State (6:30 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #752 Marquette (-12.5) over DePaul (7 p.m.) AND Take #786 Utah State (-11) over Idaho (11 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #745 South Florida (+17.5) over Georgetown (7 p.m.) AND Take #733 Xavier (-2.5) over Massachusetts (7 p.m.)
Denver Money's NHL Wednesday 2/2
I just can't seem to catch a break as we end yesterday going 1-2 losing the Nashville 3* play in a shootout and losing on the Vancouver over by .5 once again. But I won't let this stop me from capping games and getting back on track. I will finalize card with in an hour of the first game today, but here are my early leans:
Detroit Red Wings
Carolina/Calgary UNDER 5.5
Calgary
Ottawa / Buffalo OVER 5.5
I just can't seem to catch a break as we end yesterday going 1-2 losing the Nashville 3* play in a shootout and losing on the Vancouver over by .5 once again. But I won't let this stop me from capping games and getting back on track. I will finalize card with in an hour of the first game today, but here are my early leans:
Detroit Red Wings
Carolina/Calgary UNDER 5.5
Calgary
Ottawa / Buffalo OVER 5.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Hurricanes/Flames UNDER 5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nick is on a really big roll right now. Y-day he swept-the-board and that's the second time in three days. He's on a 12-3 (80%) "all sport" run. He's also on a 7-1 "all-sport" *10* run. He's hit back-to-back NHL totals and is currently on a 9-4 (69%) run. In fact he's 58-43 on the year; that record put together with mostly totals and small favs!
Writeup: For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:
Carolina is making its first visit to Calgary since a 3-0 loss Dec. 5, 2006. That marked its second straight shutout at the Pengrowth Saddledome since a 4-3 win Dec. 12, 2002.
The Hurricanes had their season-high four-game win streak snapped Monday with a 4-2 loss at Edmonton. Cam Ward made 23 saves on 27 shots after posting a 1.25 goals-against average in the four-game run; I expect him to return to form tonight.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames are expected to debut two more players in Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins on tonight.
After pulling off this recent block-buster trade, Calgary promptly lost 3-0 to Philadelphia on Monday.
The Flames know they need practice time to get used to the new players as well as victories in the tight Western Conference playoff race and I believe it will continue to struggle on the offensive end.
Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in 10 of Calgary's last 11 at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: Calgary has also seen the total go "under" the posted number in 7 of 9 non-conference games and in 13 of 21 games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
All of the above factors point to the UNDER as being the sharp wager in this situation!
*8* UNDER.[/FONT]
Hurricanes/Flames UNDER 5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nick is on a really big roll right now. Y-day he swept-the-board and that's the second time in three days. He's on a 12-3 (80%) "all sport" run. He's also on a 7-1 "all-sport" *10* run. He's hit back-to-back NHL totals and is currently on a 9-4 (69%) run. In fact he's 58-43 on the year; that record put together with mostly totals and small favs!
Writeup: For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:
Carolina is making its first visit to Calgary since a 3-0 loss Dec. 5, 2006. That marked its second straight shutout at the Pengrowth Saddledome since a 4-3 win Dec. 12, 2002.
The Hurricanes had their season-high four-game win streak snapped Monday with a 4-2 loss at Edmonton. Cam Ward made 23 saves on 27 shots after posting a 1.25 goals-against average in the four-game run; I expect him to return to form tonight.
On the other side of the rink: The Flames are expected to debut two more players in Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins on tonight.
After pulling off this recent block-buster trade, Calgary promptly lost 3-0 to Philadelphia on Monday.
The Flames know they need practice time to get used to the new players as well as victories in the tight Western Conference playoff race and I believe it will continue to struggle on the offensive end.
Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in 10 of Calgary's last 11 at the Saddledome.
Bottom line: Calgary has also seen the total go "under" the posted number in 7 of 9 non-conference games and in 13 of 21 games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
All of the above factors point to the UNDER as being the sharp wager in this situation!
*8* UNDER.[/FONT]
Tony George
WICHITA ST +6.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Battle of titans in the MO Valley and Northern Iowa puts their 22nd ranking on the line tonight against a good Shocker team. The VALUE in this game is the defense of both teams which is excellent. The total in this game is 117, which is very low, and I suspect a low scoring game in the 50s. That being said, that makes almost 7 points too many in what should be a buzzer beater. I saw Wichita State play last week in person at home, they can get after it on defense and should give the Panthers all they want and then some.
Play 1 Unit on Wichita State.[/FONT]
WICHITA ST +6.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Battle of titans in the MO Valley and Northern Iowa puts their 22nd ranking on the line tonight against a good Shocker team. The VALUE in this game is the defense of both teams which is excellent. The total in this game is 117, which is very low, and I suspect a low scoring game in the 50s. That being said, that makes almost 7 points too many in what should be a buzzer beater. I saw Wichita State play last week in person at home, they can get after it on defense and should give the Panthers all they want and then some.
Play 1 Unit on Wichita State.[/FONT]
Spartan
NC STATE +5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Revenge will be the word for the day here as Sidney Lowe and his Wolfpack square off against the Virginia Cavaliers. The Pack dropped a tough one to the Cavaliers back on Jan 9 70-62, what stung was the fact they had a double digit lead midway through the second half but failed at the line and let a victory slip from their grasp. I see some value here with the visiting dog guys and feel 5.5 points is too steep for Bennetts kids to clear. Take North Carolina State to push this thing to the very end![/FONT]
NC STATE +5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Revenge will be the word for the day here as Sidney Lowe and his Wolfpack square off against the Virginia Cavaliers. The Pack dropped a tough one to the Cavaliers back on Jan 9 70-62, what stung was the fact they had a double digit lead midway through the second half but failed at the line and let a victory slip from their grasp. I see some value here with the visiting dog guys and feel 5.5 points is too steep for Bennetts kids to clear. Take North Carolina State to push this thing to the very end![/FONT]
Rocketman
UMASS +8
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Massachusetts is 2-0 ATS since 1997 as a home underdog of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Xavier is only 3-6 SU on the road this year. Massachusetts is 4-2 SU and ATS at home vs Xavier since 1997. Musketeers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Minutemen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Minutemen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. We'll play Massachusetts for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
UMASS +8
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Massachusetts is 2-0 ATS since 1997 as a home underdog of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Xavier is only 3-6 SU on the road this year. Massachusetts is 4-2 SU and ATS at home vs Xavier since 1997. Musketeers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Minutemen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Minutemen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. We'll play Massachusetts for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +8
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Two reasons to love the Bobcats here. One is that this will be the Lakers first home game following an eight-game, 12-day road trip. Teams returning home for the first time after an extended road trip is always a spot we look to play on. We should have played the Clippers last night when they were in Chicago as the Bulls returned home for the first time following a seven-game trip and promptly lost outright 90-82. Sure enough, the Lakers are 5-11 ATS this season when playing for the third time in four nights and 3-7 ATS when playing eight or more games in a 14-day span. The second reason we like Charlotte in this game is how they have dominated the Lakers throughout their existence. And not just from a pointspread perspective, where they are 8-2 ATS all-time, but they have also won six of the last seven meetings outright. That includes three straight wins here in LA where they've covered the pointspread by a collective 64.5 points. The time before they only lost by one here as six-point dogs. The only time Charlotte did not cover here in LA was their first visit back in January '05. The reason Charlotte has been so effective as an underdog is because of their defense (93.9 points against), which is third best in the league. Charlotte is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch. [/FONT]
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +8
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Two reasons to love the Bobcats here. One is that this will be the Lakers first home game following an eight-game, 12-day road trip. Teams returning home for the first time after an extended road trip is always a spot we look to play on. We should have played the Clippers last night when they were in Chicago as the Bulls returned home for the first time following a seven-game trip and promptly lost outright 90-82. Sure enough, the Lakers are 5-11 ATS this season when playing for the third time in four nights and 3-7 ATS when playing eight or more games in a 14-day span. The second reason we like Charlotte in this game is how they have dominated the Lakers throughout their existence. And not just from a pointspread perspective, where they are 8-2 ATS all-time, but they have also won six of the last seven meetings outright. That includes three straight wins here in LA where they've covered the pointspread by a collective 64.5 points. The time before they only lost by one here as six-point dogs. The only time Charlotte did not cover here in LA was their first visit back in January '05. The reason Charlotte has been so effective as an underdog is because of their defense (93.9 points against), which is third best in the league. Charlotte is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch. [/FONT]
ScoresOddsPicks of OffshoreInsiders.com .
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Hornets– 8:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City (27-21, 29-19 ATS) is becoming a real money-maker for NBA betting fans. The Thunder have won six of their last nine straight up while covering seven of their past 10 against the spread. Oklahoma has even dominated on the road, going 5-1 ATS in its last six games away from home. You can thank Kevin Durant, who’s emerging as an MVP candidate; Durant has dropped at least 30 points in 18 of his last 22 games, with his lowest output in that span being 25 points.
New Orleans (26-22, 23-25 ATS) has played pretty well over the past month or so, going 13-6 in its last 19 games straight up. The Hornets have been solid against the spread recently, too, with a 4-2 record ATS in their last six games. Playing at home has been brutal, though—1-5 in the last six ATS. Worse yet, guard Chris Paul will miss 1-2 months with a knee injury.
The Hornets have won five straight against Oklahoma while going 3-2 against the
point spread. Without Paul in the lineup, though, New Orleans switches to the role of underdog. Take the Thunder.
Pick: Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Hornets– 8:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City (27-21, 29-19 ATS) is becoming a real money-maker for NBA betting fans. The Thunder have won six of their last nine straight up while covering seven of their past 10 against the spread. Oklahoma has even dominated on the road, going 5-1 ATS in its last six games away from home. You can thank Kevin Durant, who’s emerging as an MVP candidate; Durant has dropped at least 30 points in 18 of his last 22 games, with his lowest output in that span being 25 points.
New Orleans (26-22, 23-25 ATS) has played pretty well over the past month or so, going 13-6 in its last 19 games straight up. The Hornets have been solid against the spread recently, too, with a 4-2 record ATS in their last six games. Playing at home has been brutal, though—1-5 in the last six ATS. Worse yet, guard Chris Paul will miss 1-2 months with a knee injury.
The Hornets have won five straight against Oklahoma while going 3-2 against the
point spread. Without Paul in the lineup, though, New Orleans switches to the role of underdog. Take the Thunder.
Pick: Oklahoma City
