Steve Merrill
Wednesday, Feb. 24
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) ILLINOIS STATE -4.5 (vs. Southern Illinois) - 7:00 pm ET #534
Southern Illinois has been a surprise this season; the Salukis come into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a a 21-8 SU record. Southern Illinois has posted their first winning season since 2008, and their first 20-plus win season in nine years. The Salukis will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be just the second time in conference play this season. The last time they were in this situation, Southern Illinois played poorly in the second road game as they lost by 21 points after shooting just 30.6% (19-62) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land. The Salukis beat Illinois State 81-78 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed to rally from a 6-point halftime deficit to win that game. Southern Illinois gave up 78 points to the Redbirds on their home court, and they’ll be hard-pressed to slow Illinois State down in tonight’s game, especially since the Salukis have allowed 70.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games.
Illinois State returns home off a 75-66 loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday afternoon. That game can be easily dismissed as Northern Iowa was playing with revenge after losing 76-67 to Illinois State earlier this season. The Redbirds are now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially with this being the last home game for three starting seniors. Illinois State is 12-3 SU at home where they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land. We expect a peak performance by Illinois State here, so we’ll lay the points with the Redbirds in this game on Wednesday night.
Play ILLINOIS STATE (-) as a 3% play.
Wednesday, Feb. 24
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) ILLINOIS STATE -4.5 (vs. Southern Illinois) - 7:00 pm ET #534
Southern Illinois has been a surprise this season; the Salukis come into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a a 21-8 SU record. Southern Illinois has posted their first winning season since 2008, and their first 20-plus win season in nine years. The Salukis will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be just the second time in conference play this season. The last time they were in this situation, Southern Illinois played poorly in the second road game as they lost by 21 points after shooting just 30.6% (19-62) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land. The Salukis beat Illinois State 81-78 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed to rally from a 6-point halftime deficit to win that game. Southern Illinois gave up 78 points to the Redbirds on their home court, and they’ll be hard-pressed to slow Illinois State down in tonight’s game, especially since the Salukis have allowed 70.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games.
Illinois State returns home off a 75-66 loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday afternoon. That game can be easily dismissed as Northern Iowa was playing with revenge after losing 76-67 to Illinois State earlier this season. The Redbirds are now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially with this being the last home game for three starting seniors. Illinois State is 12-3 SU at home where they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land. We expect a peak performance by Illinois State here, so we’ll lay the points with the Redbirds in this game on Wednesday night.
Play ILLINOIS STATE (-) as a 3% play.
Sleez
RX Member
Join DateMar 2010LocationNortheastusaPosts375
HE DENVER GAME WASN'T HIS PLAY YESTERDAY SO I DONT KNOW WHERE SLEEZ GOT THE GAME FROM
RX Member
HE DENVER GAME WASN'T HIS PLAY YESTERDAY SO I DONT KNOW WHERE SLEEZ GOT THE GAME FROM
Steve Merril
NBA
(3% play) DENVER -1.5 (vs. Sacramento) - 9:05 pm ET #708
Sacramento and Denver just played on Friday night with the Kings winning 116-110 on their home court. Sacramento shot 49.4% (41-83) from the field, 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land, and 77.4% (24-31) from the free throw line and they only won that game by 6 points at home. The Kings also had five players score in double figures, including three starters scoring 24 points or more. Despite all that, the Kings only won the game by two possessions, and that does not bode well for tonight’s rematch in Denver. The Kings have played just one game since the All-Star break; that came with 8 full days of rest. Sacramento comes into tonight’s game with another 3 full days of rest, but that is not a good thing, especially since they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. Teams with limited conditioning have an extremely difficult time playing in altitude, and we expect that to be a major factor in this game, especially in the second half.
Denver has lost both of their games since the All-Star break. The Nuggets lost the aforementioned game in Sacramento, and they lost to the Celtics at home on Sunday night. Despite losing, the Nuggets have a scheduling edge since they are back into their rhythm with two games played since the long layoff. Denver will be playing just their third home game since February 5th, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance tonight. Prior to their recent home loss, the Nuggets were 3-1 SU in their other four home games with their offensive averaging 109 points per game. Denver’s offense will have little trouble scoring on a terrible Sacramento defense that is allowing 111.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. Denver is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.
Play NUGGETS (-) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) FLORIDA -3 (vs. Vanderbilt) - 7:00 pm ET (SECN) #728
Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game at Florida with a 16-11 SU record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court. The Commodores are just 2-8 SU in true road games this season, and tonight’s game will be an extremely difficult challenge. Vanderbilt is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Commodores play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Vanderbilt’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Commodores will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Florida. Vanderbilt is 0-7 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by -9.1 points per game. Vanderbilt barely beat Florida 60-59 at home earlier this season, but that was on their strong home court and it was their only win of the season when held to less than 70 points.
Florida returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-69 overtime loss at South Carolina. The Gators also lost their previous home game, so we expect a supreme effort tonight. Florida is 12-2 SU at home this season where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential. Florida plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo. The Gators play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home. Florida’s style will frustrate Vanderbilt, so we’ll lay the points with the Gators in this game on Tuesday night.
Play FLORIDA (-) as a 3% play.
NBA
(3% play) DENVER -1.5 (vs. Sacramento) - 9:05 pm ET #708
Sacramento and Denver just played on Friday night with the Kings winning 116-110 on their home court. Sacramento shot 49.4% (41-83) from the field, 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land, and 77.4% (24-31) from the free throw line and they only won that game by 6 points at home. The Kings also had five players score in double figures, including three starters scoring 24 points or more. Despite all that, the Kings only won the game by two possessions, and that does not bode well for tonight’s rematch in Denver. The Kings have played just one game since the All-Star break; that came with 8 full days of rest. Sacramento comes into tonight’s game with another 3 full days of rest, but that is not a good thing, especially since they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. Teams with limited conditioning have an extremely difficult time playing in altitude, and we expect that to be a major factor in this game, especially in the second half.
Denver has lost both of their games since the All-Star break. The Nuggets lost the aforementioned game in Sacramento, and they lost to the Celtics at home on Sunday night. Despite losing, the Nuggets have a scheduling edge since they are back into their rhythm with two games played since the long layoff. Denver will be playing just their third home game since February 5th, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance tonight. Prior to their recent home loss, the Nuggets were 3-1 SU in their other four home games with their offensive averaging 109 points per game. Denver’s offense will have little trouble scoring on a terrible Sacramento defense that is allowing 111.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. Denver is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.
Play NUGGETS (-) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) FLORIDA -3 (vs. Vanderbilt) - 7:00 pm ET (SECN) #728
Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game at Florida with a 16-11 SU record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court. The Commodores are just 2-8 SU in true road games this season, and tonight’s game will be an extremely difficult challenge. Vanderbilt is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best. The Commodores play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition. But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Vanderbilt’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Commodores will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Florida. Vanderbilt is 0-7 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by -9.1 points per game. Vanderbilt barely beat Florida 60-59 at home earlier this season, but that was on their strong home court and it was their only win of the season when held to less than 70 points.
Florida returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-69 overtime loss at South Carolina. The Gators also lost their previous home game, so we expect a supreme effort tonight. Florida is 12-2 SU at home this season where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential. Florida plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo. The Gators play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home. Florida’s style will frustrate Vanderbilt, so we’ll lay the points with the Gators in this game on Tuesday night.
Play FLORIDA (-) as a 3% play.
