TMBSportsPicks (+4.3 units yesterday, 17-12 overall)
2u FSU -2.5
2u Minnesota +2.5
2u BC pk
2u UCSB -8
1u Depaul +14
1u Arkansas -1.5
Pick Write-Up
Florida State @ North Carolina, 7PM
Pick: FSU -2.5
When will bettors finally learn that this UNC team isn't going to turn the corner? That's the big question we are asking today, as the public has once again backed the Tar Heels in a tough conference spot. We like Florida State for a number of reasons tonight, beyond just fading the square public.
The Noles come into this game playing solid basketball, and more importantly, they come into this game well rested. Their last game was a road win by nearly 20 at Virginia, and they've had a full week off to recover. We like teams playing on long rest, especially at this point in the college basketball season. UNC played and lost again this weekend, so they don't have the benefit of fresh legs.
Additionally, we like the way FSU plays defense. Ranked #2 in the country in defensive efficiency, they will likely make life very difficult on a North Carolina squad that has had trouble scoring the basketball. We suspect, as well, the the Florida State length will force some difficulties for UNC, as the Noles have the tallest team in the country. Without Ed Davis in the lineup, UNC will have trouble matching up on the inside with the likes of Solomon Alibi and Ryan Reid, and we don't think UNC has enough depth on the wing to truly provide issues for guys like Chris Singleton.
Florida State wins by throwing guys at you for 40 minutes, with tons of long, able bodies blocking shots and getting into passing lanes. As soft as the Tar Heels have been under the basket and as careless as they have been with the ball, we don't suspect that they'll get too many good shots tonight.
FSU has road wins at Virginia, Boston College, and Georgia Tech - all of which are worth trumpeting about. They've shown the ability to play strong on the road, and they have the ability to blow out North Carolina. There have been discussions in the local NC media about dissention within the UNC squad, with team leaders like Davis and Marcus Ginyard mailing it in. We think this team has quit, and it wouldn't be surprising given that they've only beaten 1 ACC team since January 10th.
Take the better, more rested team in this spot. The Noles should continue to roll, while we expect UNC to continue their slide.
PICK: FSU -2.5
2.2 units to win 2