VR’s Morning Moves - Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Report Status: WEDNESDAY FEB 24th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on THUR 2-25-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY FEB 23rd, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 2 of 2 = “BENEFITS of BIG BOARDS & SMALL BOARDS”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…After a loser last night, we are now “13-8” Overall on “Morning Moves”…For 62% Winners ATS…And as much as I have always been one to strive for more and not get content…the bottom line is that there is absolutely NO reason at all any Subscriber of this Newsletter shouldn’t be ahead of the books…Now granted if you weren’t with us from Day 1, you balance may not reflect the Overall figures…But that’s something that isn’t in my control, and what you need to focus on is the fact that we are showing an “Edge”…Which should give you plenty of confidence as we move forward…
I can only hope that all of the time that I spend preparing you for the way this market works, and that all of the “Money Management” principles that I’ve passed along and will continue to pass along…are being employed each and everyday…Otherwise, and again this may not be good for my sales…we are wasting each other’s time…and there are no results that I, or any other professional sports bettor will be able to provide…that will give you any chance of making money betting sports…
Because until you come to grips with the fact that this isn’t an easy thing that we are doing…And that you will have to overcome some adversity along the way…chances are, the books are going to end up on top…And when you have access to information that’s winning at a clip of over 60% for 3+ weeks…there is no reason that should be the case…So PLEASE, try and focus your attention on what you need to do to profit and I will give you the ammo over time…Now let’s move on to the 2nd and Final Part of the “Big Boards vs. Small Boards” topic…and see if I can pass along a few ways that you can approach and benefit from both…
The most important factor that I wanted you to get out of Part 1, was the fact that when we see “Big Board”…the chances are greater that the odds makers have passed along more “True Lines” than “Fair Lines”…And when we see “Small Boards”, the opposite is usually the case…
I also wanted you to understand that you, the bettor…has an even greater edge because the books have to offer a price on the day’s games very early in the morning, if not the night before…So that gives you the entire day to work on the match-ups, which means that you have so many extra hours that the odds makers don’t to come up with positions that offer you an edge…
That extra time also allows you the opportunity to uncover some kind of information that you feel has not been included in the price (line)…Because as handicappers, that’s what one of our main goals needs to be…And the chances of the odds makers missing something is much greater on night’s where there is a big board to work with…Because they only have a certain amount of time to work on each match-up…
The other benefit of the Big Boards is that you will see a lot of line moves because as I explained yesterday…the Outfits are working more middles on these boards…This means that you shouldn’t be as worried when a line-move goes against you…Because even if you don’t have a strong source for “steam”…you have a much greater chance of having that move be nothing more than an attempt to manipulate or middle the game…And the best way to try and determine this, is by simply seeing if that line moved in BOTH (Up & Down) directions at anytime during the day…
Finally, if you are the type of handicapper that uses those “% Sites”…Which show the betting %’s for each game…And I do urge you to use them as one of your sources of information and in future Newsletters, I plan on passing along the best ways to use them when we cover topics like “Reverse Line-Moves” and things like that…What you should focus on most, is the match-ups that are attracting the most Volume…Because those are the games that the books will most likely be forced to take a position on…and therefore, any significant line-move tells us so much more…
Meaning, that when there is a line-move on a game that isn’t getting much public attention, then you can feel surer that it’s the Wiseguys who are behind it…But when it’s on a game getting plenty of public money, then you can approach it differently and try to determine if the move is based on the books simply trying to get a little more balanced…than because they got “steamed”…
Now when we have “Small Boards” to work with…the BIGGEST edge that we have is the fact the odds makers had more time to work on the game…That may sound contradictory, but it isn’t…Because even though having more time means there is a better chance that they won’t miss much…it also means that they have more time to add “public perception” to the equation…And we know that when this is the case, we are going to receive a “Fair Line” as opposed to a “True Line”…Which ultimately means we should have an easier time finding positions that offer more “Line-Value”…
So for those who are trying to do what I passed along on previous Newsletters, and are attempting to create their own price to compare to what the books offer…Since you aren’t looking at what price they put up before you create your own…you shouldn’t be surprised if on these days, your price and what is offered are very different…Because after all, that’s what we are hoping for everyday….
What I’ve come to realize is that ex-bookmakers seem to be able to make a stronger “Fair Line”…while handicappers are able to make a stronger “True Line”…But my goal is to make you more like the Wiseguys…and that means you will become efficient creating BOTH…
Another huge benefit of Small Boards is that it’s much easier to pick-off a “True Steam” Bet made by the Betting Syndicates…And to even be able to determine which ones are their biggest positions…To guess the “steam” play isn’t going to be very difficult…Because you will look for a line that has moved significantly, without any injury or weather factor…or anything of that nature taking place…And when these moves are on those games that aren’t attracting the most attention from the public, you can be even more confident that it’s “steam”…
One of the ways to determine their biggest positions…are to follow the line moves throughout the day…And when you see that they hit a side or total as soon as the lines were offered…then came back later in the afternoon and hit that same play again…while finally, not buying any of their bet back with up to 5-10 minutes to game-time…then you can be certain that they feel they are really getting the best of it…Because more times than not…there will be a huge middle opportunity…and to not have any of the Outfits attempt to hit that middle…tells us just how big of a position it actually is…
There are plenty of other ways to determine “steam” and their main wagers…And we will cover them all through these Newsletters…But today, it’s all about the different sized boards that we need to focus on…
Those are some of the benefits of Both boards…As well as some of the things handicappers need to understand and also look for…As I’ve said before…we are now simply building our foundations…So that as we go forward, we can then come back to these same topics…but dig even deeper and get into more advanced concepts, which I plan on doing…
I have also put up a Blog Post in the Pregame Forums…where you can pass along any Topics or Questions that you would eventually liked to see covered…Remember, this is a Daily Newsletter…so we have more than enough time to cover them all…So Please, go ahead and visit the Pregame Forums, and let me know what you would like me to discuss or research as we move forward…
Thanks once again for all your continued support…and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 705-706 OVER 199 MEM/WAS
This Total opened at 198 and immediately took some Wiseguy Money on the OVER…And I don’t believe that they are finished yet…In fact, I’ve been told that they still feel there is some Value in the OVER at 199...and more importantly, “steaming” the Over will allow them to get ahead of the market…Because after looking at the Match-Up/Stats…I feel that the betting public will be betting the Over as well…VR
2.) 727-728 OVER 135 GMAS/DEL…134.5 at Olympic
This is a Total that I’ve been informed the Wiseguys are simply awaiting more “Outs” to provide a number before they “steam” the OVER…So we should see this line get adjusted Upwards as soon as this “Buy-Order” gets executed…Which I have been told, definitely will…VR
3.) 785-786 OVER 123 UTEP/SMISS
We should definitely see this Total move in only 1 direction…For starters, the Outfits like the OVER…and second, any Public money bet on this Total will be on the Over as well…That should definitely force an adjustment, but may also open up a middle opportunity late in the day for the Betting Syndicates…VR
Wed, 02/24/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 708 MIL -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 707 NOH
Analysis:
** NBA 2* "TRUE STEAM" **
The Wiseguys laid -5.5 on Milwaukee as soon as this line went up, and they took a pretty big position...The reason we are only looking at a 1/2 point move is because the books anticipate the betting public will bail them out and help them achieve the desired balance, by taking the points with Memphis...after looking so good last night when they covered and almost beat the Lakers SU...
But it's the way they lost, that I believe will be a factor tonight...Because losing to the best team in the NBA, on your home courts...on a last second shot, just has to take it's toll...
And according to my own "True Line"...The Betting Syndicates are also on the side that's offering some "Line-Value" tonight...The Bucks have been playing their best ball of the season...And even though Overall, they are barely a .500 team...the bottom line is that they are "17-9" when playing at Home...Which gives them a strong Home Court Edge...
We cashed our NBA 3* TRUE STEAM GOW last night to make us "9-3" over the L/12...Let's see if we can get Win #10 with the Bucks -6 tonight...VR
