SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Dayton (18-8, 12-11 ATS) at (20) Temple (22-5, 16-11 ATS)
The Owls go after their fourth straight victory when they play host to Dayton in an Atlantic 10 contest at the Liacouras Center.
Temple is coming off a pair of SU road victories, ripping St. Bonaventure 73-55 as a 6½-point favorite last Wednesday, then holding off cross-town rival St. Joe’s 75-67 in overtime on Saturday, falling short as a hefty 10-point chalk. The Owls have gotten it done with defense throughout this season, allowing just 57.8 ppg (sixth nationally) on 38.2 percent shooting (12th), including 28.3 percent from 3-point range (seventh). Temple is averaging 71.2 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting in its last five starts.
Dayton, clinging to fading NCAA Tournament hopes, has dropped two of its last three SU and lost all three ATS. On Sunday at Duquesne, the Flyers fell 73-71 as a 4½-point favorite. Dayton is averaging 70.3 ppg this season and giving up 61.9 ppg, and over the last five games, the Flyers have averaged 73.8 ppg on a sturdy 49.3 percent shooting.
Dayton has won and covered the last three meetings in this rivalry, though it was at home the past two seasons, winning 77-66 two years ago as a four-point chalk and 70-65 last year laying 2½ points. The SU winner is on an 8-2 ATS run in this rivalry, cashing in the last five in a row.
The Owls are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 against A-10 foes, 35-17 at home, 8-3 after a non-cover, 11-5 on Wednesday and 35-17-1 against winning teams. The Flyers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Wednesday games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The over for Temple is on rolls of 4-0-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 3-1-1 after a non-cover, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-0-1 in the Atlantic 10. Dayton is on “over” runs of 4-1 on the road and 6-2 against winning teams, though the under for the Flyers is on surges of 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-1 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the over has hit in the last two meetings, after a 4-1 “under” stretch.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and OVER
(3) Purdue (23-3, 12-13-1 ATS) at Minnesota (16-10, 11-14 ATS)
The streaking Boilermakers, aiming for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, head to Minnesota for a Big Ten battle at Williams Arena.
Purdue dropped Illinois 75-65 Saturday for its ninth consecutive victory but came up short as a 12½-point home chalk, halting a three-game ATS surge. Over the last five games, including three roadies, the Boilermakers have outscored the opposition by a little more than 10 ppg (70.4-60.2), shooting 45.9 percent from the floor and allowing just 39.8 percent shooting.
Minnesota has followed a 2-6 SU purge – in which it failed to cover in all eight contests – with a two-game SU and ATS uptick, whipping Wisconsin 68-52 as a one-point home pup last Thursday and routing Indiana 81-58 Saturday laying 17 points at home. For the season, Minnesota has had a big home-court scoring edge, averaging 79.8 ppg on a stout 50.8 percent shooting, while allowing just 59.0 ppg on 36.8 percent shooting.
Purdue is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, though three of those games were at home, including a 79-60 rout on Jan. 5 as an 8½-point favorite. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven contests, and the SU winner is on a 9-0-1 ATS roll.
The Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 3-7 as a favorite, 1-4 as a road chalk and 17-36-2 on Wednesday. Likewise, the Gophers are on myriad spread-covering slides, including 2-8 overall, 16-36-1 getting points, 2-9 as a home pup, 1-4 after a SU win, 8-21 against Big Ten opponents and 8-20 versus winning teams.
Purdue is on “over” streaks of 5-1 on the highway, 4-0 as a road favorite and 21-7 in roadies versus teams with a winning home record, but the under for the Boilermakers is on runs of 6-1 against winning teams and 6-2 on Wednesday. Furthermore, Minnesota carries “under” trends of 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 as a pup, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 16-5 catching less than seven points at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 11 overall and four of the last five in Minneapolis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma State (19-7, 12-7-1 ATS) at (21) Texas (21-6, 9-14 ATS)
The Cowboys ride a three-game winning streak into Austin’s Frank Erwin Center for a Big 12 tangle with struggling Texas.
Oklahoma State bested Baylor 82-75 Saturday as a 2½-point home favorite and has cashed in all three games during its current upswing, which followed an 0-3 SU and ATS skid. The Cowboys have averaged 75.2 ppg and given up 67.4 ppg this season, but on the road, they’ve been outscored by an average of more than six ppg (76.2-69.9).
Texas has come undone since its 17-0 start and rise to No. 1 in the rankings, going 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS over its last 10 games. The Longhorns lost at Missouri 82-77 last Wednesday as a 3½-point road underdog, but then went to Texas Tech on Saturday and nabbed a 71-67 victory – though they again failed to cash, this time as a 6½-point chalk. Texas, which pummeled Nebraska 91-51 in its last home start, is piling up 85.7 ppg in Austin this year, while allowing an average of just 63.4.
Texas is 7-1 SU (4-3-1 ATS) in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, notching a 72-60 road win as a 2½-point favorite three weeks ago (the only visitor this year to win in Stillwater). Rick Barnes’ troops are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven Austin meetings, the chalk is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four, and the home team is on a 10-4-1 ATS run.
The Longhorns are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 2-12 overall, 1-6 on Wednesday, 2-11 against winning teams, 1-5 at home, 2-9 laying points, 5-20-1 in the Big 12 and 8-20-1 after a SU win. The Pokes are in road ATS funks of 2-5 overall and 1-4 as a pup, but they are on positive pointspread rolls of 23-8-1 overall, 16-6 in conference play, 16-5 after a spread-cover, 18-7-1 after a SU win, 20-8-1 against winning teams and 4-0 on Wednesday.
The over for Texas is on upticks of 8-3 as a chalk, 4-1 as a home favorite and 6-2 following a SU win, though the under is on a 7-1 surge against winning teams. The over has hit in five of Oklahoma State’s last seven overall (all in the Big 12), but the Cowboys are on “under” tears of 7-1 against winning teams, 8-3 after a SU win and 5-2 from the underdog role.
Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight overall – including last month’s meeting -- and seven of the last eight in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
(22) Texas A&M (19-7, 14-8 ATS) at (24) Baylor (20-6, 12-7 ATS)
Two ranked Big 12 teams aim to firm up their postseason credentials when the Aggies travel to Waco to face in-state rival Baylor at the Ferrell Center.
Texas A&M has won five of its last six, all in the Big 12, going 6-0 ATS. The Aggies lost to Kansas 59-54 as a 6½-point home pup on Feb. 15, then bounced back Saturday with a 60-56 win at Iowa State as a 2½-point road favorite. A&M has won its last three roadies by a total of nine points, edging Missouri 77-74 as a healthy 9½-point ‘dog and Texas Tech 67-65 as a one-point pup before squeaking past the Cyclones.
Baylor had a three-game win streak snuffed out at Oklahoma State on Saturday, losing 82-75 as a 2½-point underdog, failing to cover for the fourth time in the last five games. The Bears, who have gone 13-1 SU in Waco this year (5-2 ATS in lined action), average 79.7 ppg on 49 percent shooting in the home jerseys, while yielding just 61.8 ppg on 37.3 percent shooting.
Texas A&M is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry (3-1 SU), notching a 78-71 home win giving two points on Feb. 6. Despite that result, the ‘dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 series clashes and the road team is on a 5-2 ATS run, but Baylor has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings in Waco.
Along with their current 6-0 ATS surge, the Aggies are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 4-0 after a SU win, 5-0 against winning teams, 41-19 on the highway, 35-17 as a pup and 11-4 as a road ‘dog. The Bears’ 1-4 ATS purge has all come in the Big 12, and they are on a 1-4 ATS skid against winning teams, but they remain on positive spread-covering runs of 4-1 after a SU loss, 5-2 after a non-cover, 6-2 at home and 10-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The over is on runs of 8-0 for A&M on Wednesday, 11-3 overall for Baylor, 10-2 for the Bears in the Big 12 and 5-2 for Baylor at home. However, the under for the Aggies is on stretches of 8-3 after a spread-cover, 7-3 as a ‘dog and 9-3 catching seven points or less on the road, and Baylor is on a 9-4-1 “under” surge following a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four Waco meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR
NBA
Portland (33-26, 31-27-1 ATS) at Toronto (31-24, 28-27 ATS)
The under-the-radar Raptors shoot for their third win in a row when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the Air Canada Centre.
Portland kicked off a five-game road trip with Tuesday’s 102-93 victory at New Jersey as a 7½-point road favorite, with Brandon Roy (28 points), LaMarcus Aldridge (27 points) and Andre Miller (20 points) leading the scoring assault. The Blazers, who had been held under 90 points in four of their previous six games, are just 6-8 SU in their last 14 games. However, they’re a respectable 8-5 in their last 13 road outings, going 10-3 ATS.
Toronto has been idle since Saturday, when it knocked off Washington 109-104, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. It was the 20th game in a row that the Raptors hit the century mark in scoring, tallying at least 106 points in 15 of those 20 contests. Toronto has won 10 of its last 12 overall (7-5 ATS) and nine of its last 10 north of the border (6-4 ATS). For the season, the Raptors are 21-7 SU and 16-12 ATS at the Air Canada Centre, despite outscoring opponents by an average of just 4.4 points per game (105.4-101).
The Blazers swept the season series from Toronto last year, winning 98-97 as a three-point road chalk and 102-89 as an eight-point home favorite. Portland is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings, but the Raptors have cashed in nine of the last 12, including five of the last six in Canada. Also, the home team has taken the money in four straight meetings the last two years.
In addition to cashing in 10 of its last 13 roadies (including seven of the last eight), Portland is on ATS runs of 5-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 35-17 when going on back-to-back nights, but it has come up short of getting the cash in four of five versus opponents with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Raptors have covered in six of seven against the West, four straight against winning teams and four of five when going on three or more days of rest, but they’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on Wednesday and 1-4 ATS in their last five against Northwest Division foes.
These teams have topped the total in each of their last five head-to-head matchups. Additionally, Toronto is on “over” runs of 6-2 at home, 9-3 on Wednesday, 7-2 against Northwest Division opponents, 6-0 versus winning teams and 12-5-1 when coming off three or more days of rest. Portland has topped the total in six of seven on the highway, four straight against winning teams, six of eight on Wednesday and seven of nine when going on back-to-back nights.
However, the under is 6-2 in the Blazers’ last eight overall and 8-2 in the Raptors’ last 10 versus the Western Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER
Oklahoma City (33-22 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (31-23, 25-28-1 ATS)
After seeing their nine-game winning streak end in brutal fashion at home last night, the surging Thunder head back on the road when they visit the AT&T Center for a battle with the well-rested Spurs.
Oklahoma City extended its longest winning streak in several years with a pair of narrow road wins at New York (121-118 in overtime) and Minnesota (109-107) over the weekend, but it was on the wrong end of a buzzer beater Tuesday, falling 104-102 to the Suns as a six-point home favorite. With Kevin Durant (36 points) and Russell Westbrook (21 points, 10 rebounds) leading the way, the Thunder had a 98-88 lead with less than three minutes to play but got outscored 16-4 the rest of the way. Phoenix’s Jason Richardson hit the winning basket with 0.7 seconds to play.
Oklahoma City is playing its sixth road game in its last eight contests tonight – all since Feb. 3 – but it has won the last five in a row (3-2 ATS). However, the Thunder have followed up a five-game ATS winning streak with three straight non-covers, the first time all year they’ve failed to cash in three straight games. Still, going back to Dec. 23, Oklahoma City has won 20 of 28 games, and it is 18-11 ATS in its last 29.
San Antonio concluded its season-long eight-game road trip in Detroit on Sunday, losing to the Pistons 109-101 in overtime as a 4½-point chalk. The Spurs finished with a 4-4 split on the trip (2-6 ATS), and they’re just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall, scoring 94 points or less in five of the contests. Also, Gregg Popovich’s team has dropped four of its last six home games, both SU and ATS.
Durant continues to play remarkable basketball, as he’s now scored at least 25 points in 29 consecutive games, and he’s averaging 29.9 ppg on the season. That includes a 35-point effort against the Spurs back on Jan. 13, but it wasn’t enough as San Antonio scored a 109-108 overtime victory as a 1½-point road underdog. However, in the first meeting between these teams this season (in San Antonio), the Thunder prevailed 101-98 as an 8½-point road favorite.
The road team has won the last four meetings SU and ATS, and the teams have split their last eight contests (with Oklahoma City going 5-3 ATS, including three straight spread-covers in San Antonio after going 0-8-1 ATS in the previous nine trips to the AT&T Center). Finally, the SU winner has covered in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head clashes and is 14-1-1 ATS in the last 16.
Oklahoma City is on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 15-5 on the road, 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-0 against the Southwest Division and 10-1 against winning teams, but it has failed to cash in five straight Wednesday affairs. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall and 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against Northwest Division opponents, but it has covered in nine of 10 when coming off a road trip of a week or longer.
The over is 20-8 in the Thunder’s last 28 when playing on back-to-back nights and 5-0 in their last four against winning teams, but they’ve stayed low in seven of 10 against the Southwest Division. The Spurs have topped the total in four straight against winning teams and the over is 5-1-1 in their last seven on Wednesday, but they’re otherwise on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 5-1 after a road trip of seven days or more.
Lastly, these teams have topped the total in four straight meetings overall and four of the last five at the AT&T Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and OVER
L.A. Lakers (43-14, 25-30-2 ATS) at Dallas (35-21, 23-33 ATS)
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers cap a brief two-game, two-day Southwest Division road swing when they invade American Airlines Center looking to beat the Mavericks for the third time in a row.
Bryant returned to the lineup for the first time in 18 days on Tuesday at Memphis and scored his team’s final nine points – including the game-winning three-pointer with 4.3 seconds left – as Los Angeles rallied past the Grizzlies 99-98. Bryant scored a team-high 32 points as the Lakers, who failed to cover as a 5½-point road favorite, overcame a five-point deficit entering the fourth quarter. Los Angeles, which prior to Tuesday hadn’t played since Thursday’s 87-86 home loss to Boston, went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS without Bryant.
Starting with a 100-95 win in Dallas as a six-point underdog back on Jan. 13, the Lakers have won 14 of 19 games, going 9-3 SU on the road.
Dallas carries a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) into tonight, including a pair of home wins over the Heat on Saturday (97-91) and Pacers on Monday (91-82). However, the Mavericks failed to cover as a sizeable favorite in both games, and are now 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 2-18 ATS at home since Nov. 30 (including 1-18 ATS as a home favorite). On the bright side, Rick Carlisle’s club has been tightening up the defense, allowing just 89.8 ppg during its winning streak.
The Mavericks ended a six-game losing streak to Los Angeles back on Oct. 30, winning 94-80 as a 7½-point road underdog, but the Lakers won the next two over a 10-day span in January (131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite on Jan. 3 and the aforementioned five-point upset win in Dallas on Jan. 13). The road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, L.A. is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four trips to Big D, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine.
The Lakers are on ATS runs of 5-2-1 on the highway and 4-1 when playing on consecutive days. Dallas has covered in 19 of its last 28 on Wednesday, but otherwise it is in ATS slumps of 8-20 overall (5-16 last 21), 6-22 at home (2-18 last 20), 7-20 against the Western Conference, 3-7 versus the Pacific Division and 1-6 after one day off.
Los Angeles, which barely stayed under the total last night in Memphis, carries a slew of “under” trends, including 6-0 overall, 6-0 on the road, 6-0 against the Southwest Division and 5-0 against Western Conference opponents. The under is also 5-0 in the Mavs’ last five on Wednesday, but they’ve topped the total in eight of their last 11 at home. Additionally, three of the last four series meetings between these rivals – including the last two in Dallas – have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
