Joe Gavazzi NBA
10* KNEE ON THE WINDPIPE
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6) 7:05 ET
4% Cleveland (-6)
Well aware that Cleveland has just a 6-14 ATS record as favorite this season. But, this is a young emerging team on a roll, which figures to offer great value in the upcoming weeks. After the 114-85 win a Philly last night, the Cavs enter tonight’s action on a 5 game win streak. They have a huge edge at point guard with emerging star, Irving, vs. aging vet, Nelson. After losing 104-100 to Milwaukee last night (the worst team in the league), the Magic have now lost 13 consecutive road games. Their long-term slide is 13-37 SU, good for just 26% wins. When not getting double digits on the road, Orlando is 4-13 ATS. With the Cavs being a young team, they are enjoying every victory, playing with the philosophy of KEEPING THE KNEE ON THE WINDPIPE to the final buzzer.
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-1-) 7:35 ET
3% Washington (+1-)
The Hawks struggled to piece things together in the absence of Horford, but the loss of their other quality big man, Antic, was the tipping point. Atlanta enters tonight on a negative slide of 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS after scoring the last 5 points last night to get a push at Indiana. In the losing streak, they have averaged just 88 PPG. But, there is no back door potential tonight in this win situation. Washington fell meekly in the 2nd half last night for our Top of the Ticket Winner with Toronto. That played true to the Wizards inverted home/road dichotomy. On the road, Washington is 13-3 ATS of late and a season long 17-5 ATS as road chalk to +9.
Indiana Pacers (-2-) at Minnesota Timberwolves 8:00 ET ESPN
3% Indiana (-2-)
Minnesota has struggled with injuries all year long. Currently, they are playing without the outside/inside tandem of Martin and Pekovic. It has resulted in a 2-6 SU ATS recent record. Even when healthy, this has not been the T-Wolves role. They are just 2-7 ATS as home dog to -3. The Pacers were cruising last night as our Best Bet winner before the Hawks scored the last 5 points for a push. The flip side of that coin is that Indiana had to expend little energy in the 4th quarter last night. Look for the Pacers to dominate both inside and outside tonight. Proving why they are the best team in the East.
Joe Gavazzi CBKB
HIDDEN GEM PLAY
William and Mary at COC (-2-) 7:00 ET
5% William & Mary (+2-)
COC, which perennially challenged for SOCON honors, has found it to be a major leap into the Colonial. After 12 games, they are 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS. This includes losses to Delaware, Towson, and William & Mary, the top 3 teams in the league by 15, 11, 3, and 7 points. Only the reputation of these two schools allows COC to be favored in this. William and Mary is a HIDDEN GEM behind the experienced leadership on the perimeter of Thornton, Britt, and Rusthoven. On Monday night, the Tribe knocked down 16 triples in a 93-70 rout of Uncle Willy. But, that marksmanship is not unusual as William and Mary averages 9 triples per game on 40% from the arc. The Tribe is a careful team with the basketball, committing less than 11 TOs per game. They have a far better offense than COC who averages just 62/41/33 while knocking down just 64% from the stripe with less than 10 assists per game. With Monday’s win, the veteran Tribe is now 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS in the Colonial. This includes 7-1 SU when not facing league leaders Delaware and Towson. William and Mary has covered 11 of their last 14 games, including winning and covering each of the last 4 road games. You can take this HIDDEN GEM to the bank.
Boston College at Syracuse (-14) 7:00 ET ESPN2
4% Boston College (+14)
The pressure continues to build on the Orange, who have barely escaped at Pitt and vs. NC State on Saturday with a pair of last second victories. Looking dead ahead at their meeting vs. Duke on Saturday, and having already defeated Boston College 69-59, where is the motivation? Boeheim coached teams are 54-79 ATS at home following a victory and only 60-88 ATS (1-4 ATS TY) as conference home favorite of 5 or more points. It has been a miserable year for Boston College. They enter tonight on a 5 game losing streak of 6-19 SU with a record of 8-15 ATS. But, we have long profited from the excellence of Eagles HC Donahue in this role. His teams at Cornell and Boston College are 50-24 ATS away/loss and 34-13 ATS as road dog of 13 or more points. Look for never say die, Boston College, to do no worse than come through the back door (as they recently did at Virginia) and cover this sizable impost against the No. 1 team with less than 100% focus.
Kent St. at Miami, OH (-2) 7:00 ET
4% Kent St. (+2)
It has only been 2 years since veteran Red Hawk mentor, Charlie Coles, left Oxford. But, the decline has been precipitous. Under 2nd year HC Cooper, the Hawks won only 9 games last year and were just 3-13 ATS in league play. More was expected in Cooper’s 2nd year with 4 RS and the addition of transfer Edwards from Penn St. But, it looks like Miami has spit the bit. They enter tonight on a 0-4 SU slide, including a 53-41 loss at bottom of the barrel N. Illinois, followed by losses to upper division MAC foes, Ohio, Buffalo, and W. Michigan. Each of those defeats has come by 7 or more points. The once strong boards of Millett Hall have dissolved into a record of 17-19 SU L2+Y. Kent has far more upside under 3rd year HC Senderoff. Under his guidance, the Flashes recorded a pair of 21 win seasons his first 2 years. But, there are a group of 5 quality teams in the MAC, a major reason why Kent is just 5-7 SU in league play. And, it is why every victory against inferior opponents is an absolute must. With the momentum of a pair of home wins, look for Kent, the better team, to get this outright victory as underdog against a fading program who has fallen below .500 on their once strong home court.
UNRATED OPINIONS
St. Josephs (-4) at Rhode Island 7:00 ET
We follow the momentum of 2 teams headed opposite directions. Rhode Island has lost 5 consecutive games, including to Fordham and Duquesne, while allowing 77 PPG. It looks like they have tossed the towel till the CCT. Hawks won this matchup only 61-57 in the earlier meet, implying there will be no overconfidence. Hawks have a veteran front court led by Kanecevic and Roberts. Galloway is joined on the perimeter by frosh Bembry, an Artis Gilmore throwback. Hawks have won 8/10, including 4-1 SU ATS recently to stand 7-3 SU ATS in the underrated A10. Behind the coaching of HC Martelli, this program is 69-40 ATS, including 5-1 ATS this season on the conference trail when lining up as a winning program. Follow this late season momentum for the winner.
Creighton (-3) at Marquette 8:00 ET FS1
Classic revenge spot for the inferior home team with the momentum of consecutive victories. The Eagles at 15-10 SU, 7-5 SU in the league clearly need a marquee victory. They do catch Creighton at the right time following a huge emotional victory against Villanova to perch the Blue Jays atop the league. But, with Creighton being 1 of only 3 teams who are both a Defensive Dandy and a 230 Club Offensive Member, and the Blue Jays standing 48-24 ATS, 8-2 ATS TY following a 15 point or more victory in their previous game, it is hard to even conceive of taking off the rubber band.
S. Carolina at Arkansas (-12) 9:00 ET
Classic home/road dichotomy play. Frank Martin is doing an outstanding job of rebuilding the Gamecocks from the bottom up. But with injuries to his 2 veteran point guards, it means youngsters man the perimeter for Carolina. The result? 0-10 SU, 3-6 ATS on the road. At 16-9 SU, 5-7 SU in SEC play, the Hogs cannot afford to look past anyone. In 5+ years as head man at Missouri and now Arkansas, HC Anderson is 41-21 ATS as home favorite. That includes 9-3 ATS this season and 5-0 ATS as a double digit home favorite.
Washington at Oregon (-10) 9:00 ET ESPN2
Washington continues to struggle with a lack of balance on offense and a promiscuous defense, which has already allowed 80 or more points on 10 separate occasions. Oregon has the same defensive issues which is why this play is not rated higher. But, the buy sign has certainly been flashed on the Ducks. This high-scoring team has had problems finding enough basketballs and minutes to go around for the menagerie of offensive players. Following their Arizona St. loss on February 8th, the Ducks were on a 2-8 SU slide that roughly coincided with a 1-10 ATS dip. But since January 30th, they lost by only 2 points to the league’s 3 best teams, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona St. Sunday’s double digit victory over rival Oregon St. (93-83) was the buy sign on a team whose price has been beaten down since that 13-0 SU start. High-scoring romp for the Ducks, fueled by 80-76 revenge.
Arizona (-4-) at Utah 10:00 ET FS1
In an earlier game at Arizona, the Utes were competitive much of the way before falling 65-56. That sets up a revenge situation for a Utah team, who under 3rd year HC Krystowiak is 17-4 ATS in revenge and 29-10 ATS as underdog. With a record of 16-1 SU at home, coming off a loss at UCLA, and standing 6-7 SU in the league, it is clear that this is a game of greatest importance to the Utes’ post-season aspirations. With a pair of frosh forwards in Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson, the formerly No. 1 Wildcats are 2-2 SU, 0-2 SU away without former starter Ashley. That extends the pointspread slide of the Cats to 1-6 ATS. Now, they must travel to altitude (1st time this year) to face a hungry foe. Until the Cats win one on the road, we must look to play against them in this spot. That is especially true with the realization that this team clanked 16-30 from the stripe in the 3 point OT loss at AZ State and converts just 65% from the charity line for the season. The memo on improvement has been sent.
New Mexico (-1) at UNLV 11:00 ET ESPN2
The former 7-0 SU road record of New Mexico is in the rearview mirror after they fell 71-70 at Boise in their previous road game. Now, there will be a bit of doubt in their minds about getting this victory. Certainly, it will not come easily. I watched the majority of the first game between these two, a 76-73 UNLV outright victory at the Pit. It was a rare home loss for the Lobos. But, it was one that was clearly deserved from a fundamental point of view. Upfront, the New Mexico bigs, Bairstow and Kirk, do not have their usual edge against the Rebels’ rebounder, Smith, and shot blocker Birch. On the perimeter is where the more athletic Rebels hold their advantage. Though the Lobos feature Williams (reigning MWC POY), other components like Greenwood and Neal are defensive liabilities because of their lack of athleticism. That gives a huge edge to Rebel guards, Dejean-Jones, Cadillac Smith, and Olekaibe. From a technical perspective, nearly all the ingredients are in place for the 70% plus sweep situation to qualify.
Arizona St. at Colorado (-4-) 11:00 ET ESPNU
With Colorado trailing AZ State by a game in the loss column and having the advantage of 72-51 revenge, the situation seems right for a Buff home win. They also have the situational edges of playing at altitude and catching Arizona St. following their upset victory of rival Arizona. Unfortunately, much of that advantage seems to be reflected in a somewhat bloated line. Nonetheless, consider the fact that Colorado HC Boyle has a history of success at this price point standing 24-11 ATS at +3 to -3 (5-2 ATS TY). And, it certainly cannot be ignored that at their Coors Center home, Colorado is 60-8 SU (15-1 TY) home 3+Y
10* KNEE ON THE WINDPIPE
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6) 7:05 ET
4% Cleveland (-6)
Well aware that Cleveland has just a 6-14 ATS record as favorite this season. But, this is a young emerging team on a roll, which figures to offer great value in the upcoming weeks. After the 114-85 win a Philly last night, the Cavs enter tonight’s action on a 5 game win streak. They have a huge edge at point guard with emerging star, Irving, vs. aging vet, Nelson. After losing 104-100 to Milwaukee last night (the worst team in the league), the Magic have now lost 13 consecutive road games. Their long-term slide is 13-37 SU, good for just 26% wins. When not getting double digits on the road, Orlando is 4-13 ATS. With the Cavs being a young team, they are enjoying every victory, playing with the philosophy of KEEPING THE KNEE ON THE WINDPIPE to the final buzzer.
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-1-) 7:35 ET
3% Washington (+1-)
The Hawks struggled to piece things together in the absence of Horford, but the loss of their other quality big man, Antic, was the tipping point. Atlanta enters tonight on a negative slide of 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS after scoring the last 5 points last night to get a push at Indiana. In the losing streak, they have averaged just 88 PPG. But, there is no back door potential tonight in this win situation. Washington fell meekly in the 2nd half last night for our Top of the Ticket Winner with Toronto. That played true to the Wizards inverted home/road dichotomy. On the road, Washington is 13-3 ATS of late and a season long 17-5 ATS as road chalk to +9.
Indiana Pacers (-2-) at Minnesota Timberwolves 8:00 ET ESPN
3% Indiana (-2-)
Minnesota has struggled with injuries all year long. Currently, they are playing without the outside/inside tandem of Martin and Pekovic. It has resulted in a 2-6 SU ATS recent record. Even when healthy, this has not been the T-Wolves role. They are just 2-7 ATS as home dog to -3. The Pacers were cruising last night as our Best Bet winner before the Hawks scored the last 5 points for a push. The flip side of that coin is that Indiana had to expend little energy in the 4th quarter last night. Look for the Pacers to dominate both inside and outside tonight. Proving why they are the best team in the East.
Joe Gavazzi CBKB
HIDDEN GEM PLAY
William and Mary at COC (-2-) 7:00 ET
5% William & Mary (+2-)
COC, which perennially challenged for SOCON honors, has found it to be a major leap into the Colonial. After 12 games, they are 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS. This includes losses to Delaware, Towson, and William & Mary, the top 3 teams in the league by 15, 11, 3, and 7 points. Only the reputation of these two schools allows COC to be favored in this. William and Mary is a HIDDEN GEM behind the experienced leadership on the perimeter of Thornton, Britt, and Rusthoven. On Monday night, the Tribe knocked down 16 triples in a 93-70 rout of Uncle Willy. But, that marksmanship is not unusual as William and Mary averages 9 triples per game on 40% from the arc. The Tribe is a careful team with the basketball, committing less than 11 TOs per game. They have a far better offense than COC who averages just 62/41/33 while knocking down just 64% from the stripe with less than 10 assists per game. With Monday’s win, the veteran Tribe is now 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS in the Colonial. This includes 7-1 SU when not facing league leaders Delaware and Towson. William and Mary has covered 11 of their last 14 games, including winning and covering each of the last 4 road games. You can take this HIDDEN GEM to the bank.
Boston College at Syracuse (-14) 7:00 ET ESPN2
4% Boston College (+14)
The pressure continues to build on the Orange, who have barely escaped at Pitt and vs. NC State on Saturday with a pair of last second victories. Looking dead ahead at their meeting vs. Duke on Saturday, and having already defeated Boston College 69-59, where is the motivation? Boeheim coached teams are 54-79 ATS at home following a victory and only 60-88 ATS (1-4 ATS TY) as conference home favorite of 5 or more points. It has been a miserable year for Boston College. They enter tonight on a 5 game losing streak of 6-19 SU with a record of 8-15 ATS. But, we have long profited from the excellence of Eagles HC Donahue in this role. His teams at Cornell and Boston College are 50-24 ATS away/loss and 34-13 ATS as road dog of 13 or more points. Look for never say die, Boston College, to do no worse than come through the back door (as they recently did at Virginia) and cover this sizable impost against the No. 1 team with less than 100% focus.
Kent St. at Miami, OH (-2) 7:00 ET
4% Kent St. (+2)
It has only been 2 years since veteran Red Hawk mentor, Charlie Coles, left Oxford. But, the decline has been precipitous. Under 2nd year HC Cooper, the Hawks won only 9 games last year and were just 3-13 ATS in league play. More was expected in Cooper’s 2nd year with 4 RS and the addition of transfer Edwards from Penn St. But, it looks like Miami has spit the bit. They enter tonight on a 0-4 SU slide, including a 53-41 loss at bottom of the barrel N. Illinois, followed by losses to upper division MAC foes, Ohio, Buffalo, and W. Michigan. Each of those defeats has come by 7 or more points. The once strong boards of Millett Hall have dissolved into a record of 17-19 SU L2+Y. Kent has far more upside under 3rd year HC Senderoff. Under his guidance, the Flashes recorded a pair of 21 win seasons his first 2 years. But, there are a group of 5 quality teams in the MAC, a major reason why Kent is just 5-7 SU in league play. And, it is why every victory against inferior opponents is an absolute must. With the momentum of a pair of home wins, look for Kent, the better team, to get this outright victory as underdog against a fading program who has fallen below .500 on their once strong home court.
UNRATED OPINIONS
St. Josephs (-4) at Rhode Island 7:00 ET
We follow the momentum of 2 teams headed opposite directions. Rhode Island has lost 5 consecutive games, including to Fordham and Duquesne, while allowing 77 PPG. It looks like they have tossed the towel till the CCT. Hawks won this matchup only 61-57 in the earlier meet, implying there will be no overconfidence. Hawks have a veteran front court led by Kanecevic and Roberts. Galloway is joined on the perimeter by frosh Bembry, an Artis Gilmore throwback. Hawks have won 8/10, including 4-1 SU ATS recently to stand 7-3 SU ATS in the underrated A10. Behind the coaching of HC Martelli, this program is 69-40 ATS, including 5-1 ATS this season on the conference trail when lining up as a winning program. Follow this late season momentum for the winner.
Creighton (-3) at Marquette 8:00 ET FS1
Classic revenge spot for the inferior home team with the momentum of consecutive victories. The Eagles at 15-10 SU, 7-5 SU in the league clearly need a marquee victory. They do catch Creighton at the right time following a huge emotional victory against Villanova to perch the Blue Jays atop the league. But, with Creighton being 1 of only 3 teams who are both a Defensive Dandy and a 230 Club Offensive Member, and the Blue Jays standing 48-24 ATS, 8-2 ATS TY following a 15 point or more victory in their previous game, it is hard to even conceive of taking off the rubber band.
S. Carolina at Arkansas (-12) 9:00 ET
Classic home/road dichotomy play. Frank Martin is doing an outstanding job of rebuilding the Gamecocks from the bottom up. But with injuries to his 2 veteran point guards, it means youngsters man the perimeter for Carolina. The result? 0-10 SU, 3-6 ATS on the road. At 16-9 SU, 5-7 SU in SEC play, the Hogs cannot afford to look past anyone. In 5+ years as head man at Missouri and now Arkansas, HC Anderson is 41-21 ATS as home favorite. That includes 9-3 ATS this season and 5-0 ATS as a double digit home favorite.
Washington at Oregon (-10) 9:00 ET ESPN2
Washington continues to struggle with a lack of balance on offense and a promiscuous defense, which has already allowed 80 or more points on 10 separate occasions. Oregon has the same defensive issues which is why this play is not rated higher. But, the buy sign has certainly been flashed on the Ducks. This high-scoring team has had problems finding enough basketballs and minutes to go around for the menagerie of offensive players. Following their Arizona St. loss on February 8th, the Ducks were on a 2-8 SU slide that roughly coincided with a 1-10 ATS dip. But since January 30th, they lost by only 2 points to the league’s 3 best teams, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona St. Sunday’s double digit victory over rival Oregon St. (93-83) was the buy sign on a team whose price has been beaten down since that 13-0 SU start. High-scoring romp for the Ducks, fueled by 80-76 revenge.
Arizona (-4-) at Utah 10:00 ET FS1
In an earlier game at Arizona, the Utes were competitive much of the way before falling 65-56. That sets up a revenge situation for a Utah team, who under 3rd year HC Krystowiak is 17-4 ATS in revenge and 29-10 ATS as underdog. With a record of 16-1 SU at home, coming off a loss at UCLA, and standing 6-7 SU in the league, it is clear that this is a game of greatest importance to the Utes’ post-season aspirations. With a pair of frosh forwards in Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson, the formerly No. 1 Wildcats are 2-2 SU, 0-2 SU away without former starter Ashley. That extends the pointspread slide of the Cats to 1-6 ATS. Now, they must travel to altitude (1st time this year) to face a hungry foe. Until the Cats win one on the road, we must look to play against them in this spot. That is especially true with the realization that this team clanked 16-30 from the stripe in the 3 point OT loss at AZ State and converts just 65% from the charity line for the season. The memo on improvement has been sent.
New Mexico (-1) at UNLV 11:00 ET ESPN2
The former 7-0 SU road record of New Mexico is in the rearview mirror after they fell 71-70 at Boise in their previous road game. Now, there will be a bit of doubt in their minds about getting this victory. Certainly, it will not come easily. I watched the majority of the first game between these two, a 76-73 UNLV outright victory at the Pit. It was a rare home loss for the Lobos. But, it was one that was clearly deserved from a fundamental point of view. Upfront, the New Mexico bigs, Bairstow and Kirk, do not have their usual edge against the Rebels’ rebounder, Smith, and shot blocker Birch. On the perimeter is where the more athletic Rebels hold their advantage. Though the Lobos feature Williams (reigning MWC POY), other components like Greenwood and Neal are defensive liabilities because of their lack of athleticism. That gives a huge edge to Rebel guards, Dejean-Jones, Cadillac Smith, and Olekaibe. From a technical perspective, nearly all the ingredients are in place for the 70% plus sweep situation to qualify.
Arizona St. at Colorado (-4-) 11:00 ET ESPNU
With Colorado trailing AZ State by a game in the loss column and having the advantage of 72-51 revenge, the situation seems right for a Buff home win. They also have the situational edges of playing at altitude and catching Arizona St. following their upset victory of rival Arizona. Unfortunately, much of that advantage seems to be reflected in a somewhat bloated line. Nonetheless, consider the fact that Colorado HC Boyle has a history of success at this price point standing 24-11 ATS at +3 to -3 (5-2 ATS TY). And, it certainly cannot be ignored that at their Coors Center home, Colorado is 60-8 SU (15-1 TY) home 3+Y
