VR`s Morning Moves - Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Report Status: WEDNESDAY FEB 17th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on THUR 2-18-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY FEB 17th, 2010
HANDICAPPING THEORY : “VALUE”…WHAT IS IT EXACTLY ??
Good Morning Lovely Ladies & Gentlemen…First, I wanted to say that by no means am I trying to be a wise-ass…In fact, I want to take a moment to personally apologize for always speaking, writing, ect towards a “male audience”…Especially when I am now certain that we have women who are also partners in this venture of trying to beat the sports betting market…I think it was ignorant of myself to not already expect that I had some Lady clients…
So ladies…you have my deepest apology…And you have no clue just how thrilled I am to know that there are women out there who love this racket as much as I do…See that fellas, there is hope for us…We just may be able to not just land a woman who loves sports…but hit the lottery by landing one who loves to wager as well…
Finally, I want to really thank the lovely and definitely classy lady in England who not only brought this to my attention…but also sent me a very nice e-mail, showing her appreciation for all the hard work I do…Reading that made me realize even more, why I do this Daily Newsletters…Weekly Video Pod-Casts…Daily Messages & Forum Threads…Live-Chats…ect…Because besides simply passing along winning information, I see that my clients/partners also appreciate everything else…
Sorry I haven’t gotten into handicapping Manchester United…lol…But make sure you let me know if you are ever planning to make it out here to Vegas…I will personally, show you around the sports books here in town…Thanks Again, VR
Allright…I got that out of the way, now we can move on to today’s business at hand…For starters, we WON another “Morning Move” on Wednesday…And are now “11-4” (73% ATS) Overall…I really hope that you are also taking the time to not only read the Daily Newsletters, but also put some of the concepts & theories to work for you…This way, all of YOUR hard work and good decisions…is never wiped out by a handful of bad decisions…
For today’s Newsletter…I wanted to take a moment to define “VALUE”…Because in the sports handicapping/betting world…as well as the gambling & business world, we are always hearing the word “Value”…
The dictionary defines Value as : “An amount expressed in money or another medium of exchange that is thought to be a FAIR exchange for something”…That’s a pretty good definition of what Value is…But I want to discuss what it means in the sports betting market…And to us as bettors…
The bottom line is this…To make money betting on sports, you simply have to find positions that you can get your money down…and know that you are getting the best of it…Which ultimately means, finding where the Value lies, and betting it…Now this may seem like a simple concept, but none are deeper or more important…Because it’s your ability to truly determine Value…that will allow you to profit, or have you go broke…
I never really understood this concept until I went on to move “steam” for a handful of the Betting Syndicates…Because when you work for them, you really start to see what Value actually means…Because these guys are ONLY going to take a position on a game, if they are able to get the EXACT number they perceive offers them value…Meaning, when they send out a “buy-order” on TEAM A - 2...then -2 is the ONLY line that we can bet it at, because they won’t accept anything else…Unless of course we can find better…
What really made me understand that the Wiseguys look at this just like any other market is the fact that they would actually change the side they were going to bet, if the bookmakers moved the line to much…Meaning, although they liked TEAM A -2...if the line went to 3.5...many times, they would do a complete turn around, and take a position on TEAM B +3.5...Because according to their numbers, there is now Value on TEAM B…
The bottom line is that even in our market…Value simply means that the bookmakers are offering a price that is not a true reflection of the worth, for one team or the other…in that particular match-up…So if you think that the “TRUE LINE” (covered in previous Newsletter) of a match-up should be TEAM A -3 vs. TEAM B…But the bookmakers are offering the game at TEAM A -6...then according to your numbers, TEAM B is offering you enough value…that you should be willing to take that position…
The key is being efficient at determining value…And it’s no different than what successful stock brokers are able to do, compared to those who aren’t…The successful ones are able to accurately determine the TRUE worth of a company…and based on what price that company’s stock is selling at…they either have Value, or they don’t…It’s really not any more difficult than that…
But what happens, is that we invest in a market that is difficult to not be biased…We love sports and we have our favorite teams…So many times, we find ourselves taking a position that actually offers us NO value at all…And when you do that, in a market that asks you to lay 11 to win only 10...you are taking the worst of it, and will ultimately lose your bankroll…
This is why on a past Newsletter I discussed how important it was to actually create your own “Price” (line) before you even consider looking at what the market has set the price at…And because the bookmakers are forced to offer a betting line whose only function is to try and SPLIT the money being wagered…more times than not, you will find some opportunities to get your money down, where you know you are getting Value…
But unless you have a price to compare to what the market is offering, you can never be sure if you are actually getting any value at all…And regardless of how efficient of a handicapper you may be…in the end, you need to be able to accurately determine value…
So always make sure that if you are placing a bet…the main reason, and actually the only reason that you are placing it…is because according to your work, the price being offered, isn’t a true reflection of what you perceive it should be…Meaning the question that you need to answer is…, Are you are getting more than you should be getting (Betting the Dog)…or are you being asked to give up less than you should be giving up (Betting the Favorite)…
Finally, if you can answer that every time…while improving at answering it accurately, then you are on your way to being able to beat the books…And if you can do those things, then with proper money management…you should ALWAYS be able to turn a profit in the long-run…
So make sure you are making a wager because you believe you are getting Value…Or else, you are simply gambling…And I’ve told you many times what happens eventually when you gamble…Instead, find that position that offers Value, and get your money down on it…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) GM 719/720.…OVER 223 KINGS/WARRIORS
This is one of those match-ups that the Betting Syndicates will almost always try to get ahead of the market on…And there is NO doubt at all where the market is going, because the betting public is going to be wagering on the OVER in this one…So we should see the books, who have already adjusted to 223, from 222...continue to move in that direction…VR
2.) 753/754.…BALL ST +1
According to a handful of sources that move “steam”…Ball St is on their “buy-list” for today…So we should see some of the Outfits step up and grab +1 with Ball St and force an adjustment…And because this match-up should receive very little “public money”…the books won’t be able to get balance…This will force them to possibly over-adjust, in an attempt to entice some money on the other side…VR