Dave Malinsky
February PLUS 15.8 Units
NBA MINUS 86.8 Units YTD
CBB MINUS 55.4 Units YTD
4* #718 PHOENIX over PORTLAND
In cashing an easy 4* ticket with Oklahoma City at Portland last
night, there was a key phrase in the analysis that basically told the
tale - <i>?the All Star break can not come soon enough for Nate
McMillan and his team.?</i> A wilting Trail Blazer team was taken
apart 30-16 in the fourth quarter of that game, and what did we read
this morning from Jason Quick in the Portland Oregonian? Here is his
lead <i>?It appears the All-Star break can't come soon enough for the
Trail Blazers, who continued their mid-season malaise in emphatic
fashion Tuesday?</i> Now the Blazers are absolutely in the wrong
place at the wrong time in this setting, and it goes from bad to
worse.
Not only have injuries ravaged the Portland roster, but in playing 54
games already, two more than anyone else, it has been an arduous slog
to gut through them. This will mark their 10th straight game against
an opponent with a winning record, and off of back-to-back home
defeats by 17 and 12 points the tank is simply empty. But the fact
that the Trail Blazers were close into the final stanza last night
meant that Nate McMillan could not tinker with his rotation for this
difficult turnaround (remember that they also lose an hour in the
time zone adjustment), and the 43:06 from LaMarcus Aldridge, the only
real go-to scorer right now, is ominous.
While Portland is tired and lacks confidence, Phoenix could almost
not be at a more opposite extreme. The Suns battled through their own
malaise in January but have found their game again, with a current
5-0 SU and ATS run that included a 4-0 road trip. Now they get the
rare luxury of four full days off to prepare a game plan, and it not
only means the right tactical approach, but also the kind of energy
that allows them to let it all hang out. That is something that the
Trail Blazers can not cope with, and we would not be surprised to see
McMillan wave a white towel if this one gets out of hand early.
4* #761 SOUTHERN MISS over TULSA
In cashing an easy 4* ticket on Saturday behind Larry Eustachy and
his scrappy Golden Eagles, we noted how their style of play brings
almost no sex appeal to the marketplace, and as such no real line
adjustments despite their outstanding recent run. We can repeat that
same mantra to set this one up.
Southern Miss is playing ferocious defense, holding seven straight
Conference USA opponents to less than 60 points, and going 6-1 ATS in
those games. And while the SU tally was only 4-3, look at the defeats
? they fell at U.T.E.P. and U.A.B., and at home vs. Memphis, by a
combined 10 points. The polish is not quite there offensively to
finish against that class of competition but the defense goes hard
for the full 40 minutes regardless, and on a current 4-0 run,
including that outright win at Houston on Saturday, the confidence is
at a high level all the way around. We can start with Eustachy -
<i>?It says a lot about our players. I don?t think we?ve scratched
the surface as a team. We?re going to run out of time. All of them
can get so much better. The hand they were dealt by the conference
(four league road games in the first six) was ridiculous and they
handled it well. We can play a lot better than we did at Houston, but
we found a way to win.?</i>
The fact that they are only building momentum, and nowhere near a
peak, is a mindset that we like to see, and Sai?Quon Stone continues
that theme - <i>?We haven?t been successful yet and we haven?t been
successful in our coach?s mind. He?s been instilling that into the
rest of players and that makes us more hungry. We haven?t done
anything yet and we haven?t earned anything.?</i> And part of that
surge comes from the physical play of Torye Pelham inside, who had 13
rebounds in only 22 minutes at Houston (from Stone - <i>?He?s been
relentless for us the last four or five weeks?</i>). They are 4-1 SU
since he came back from injury, losing only at U.A.B. by a single
point.
Southern Miss is only allowing 40.2 percent from the field and 27.6
from 3-point range in CUSA play, winning the battle of the boards by
39, and only allowing 73 assists through eight games. That are the
epitome of a ?tough out?, and not only do the Eagles hang around the
entire way here, but the outright upset is absolutely in range. While
they are playing their best basketball of the season, Tulsa has
fallen into a funk. When Southern had to open against the CUSA elite
the Golden Hurricanes had a softer early ride, but in stepping up in
class the past two weeks they fell by 10 at U.A.B. and 14 at
U.T.E.P., and they have only managed a 5-11 ATS tally in the role of
the favorite this season. They have also not played well at all when
forced into a slower pace, going just 1-8-1 ATS in games in which
neither they nor their opponents scored more than 75 points. And now
there are distraction issues as well, with Saturday night?s
nationally televised home game vs. Memphis looming too large on the
horizon ? it is both ?Legends Weekend? and a ?Hoops for Haiti?
white-out promotion, and for a team that does not get that kind of
showcase often it makes the task of getting past this challenge even
more difficult.
6* #765 UTAH over T.C.U.
Utah has handled T.C.U. in all four meetings the past two seasons,
winning by a combined 50 points over four games, and going 3-1 ATS in
the process, including a 62-54 win as -4 on this court LY. But take a
look at tonight?s price range and you see just why we are able to
step this one up ? once again the markets get caught making far too
big of an adjustment off of extreme results, and that means extreme
value.
Each of these teams had their last game finish at least 15 points
from the pointspread, with Utah falling 65-50 at home to Colorado
State in an ugly performance, and T.C.U. winning 65-51 at Air Force.
So major adjustments get made, but in reality nothing is called for.
The Utah loss to Colorado State does not carry all that much weight,
with the Utes caught in a prime letdown spot off of their game
against arch-rival Brigham Young, and also having to play with key
cog Marshall Henderson, who was serving a suspension. And the fact
that Jim Boylen?s team has had a week off since that defeat actually
means that the markets are ?zigging? when they should be ?zagging? ?
instead of a downgrade, we will find a team with a prime focus to
turn that defeat around, and ample time to put a game plan together.
Meanwhile the T.C.U. win at Air Force was also a roll of the dice
that also carries no particular meaning going forward ? reserve guard
Greg Hill entered that game averaging 7.3 per outing, on 38.0 percent
shooting that included an anemic 22-81 from 3-point range, but he
exploded for a career-high 23 points, knocking down 7-10 triples. It
was not a buy signal for the team in any way, but rather one of those
fluky nights that can happen on the College Hardwoods.
So what do we have going forward? A most under-rated Utah team that
has not been able to jell because of injuries and suspensions, with
only Carlon Brown and Luke Drca playing all 22 games. But a full
practice week in the middle of the season can be an ideal way to
regain the focus, and note what it means for this particular trip ?
while many Mountain West teams do not take playing at T.C.U. all that
seriously, this one carries a special level of significance. Not only
is there a physical freshness from the time off, but it is a
homecoming for Henderson, while Matt Read and Chris Hines are also
from Texas, an area that Boylen hopes to recruit hard as he builds
the program - <i>"We have three Dallas guys going home and they want
a good showing so we have to be ready to play. When you are
recruiting a guy, you talk about playing in Texas and what a big deal
it is."</i>
Utah is the far better defensive team in this matchup, and it showed
in the earlier 65-45 home domination of the Horned Frogs, when the
flow was under such control that Boylen had 13 different players go
at least two minutes, and the starters were only on the court for 65
percent of the total allotment. We call for more of the same here,
and the fact that Utah has never been less than -4 in the 10 meetings
between the programs since T.C.U. joined the Mountain West shows how
much of an over-reaction this line brings.
6* #783 GEORGIA over AUBURN
Georgia is doing a lot of things right in Mark Fox?s first season at
the helm. But it is happening vs. such a difficult schedule (#7
Sagarin and #10 Pomeroy) that the markets are not seeing the
improvement in terms of wins and losses. That is how we get such
excellent value for this setting, getting the far better team in an
underdog role as they step down in class, in a game that we fully
expect them to win outright.
The Bulldogs do have a series of quality wins, knocking off
Vanderbilt and Tennessee in double figures in S.E.C. play, while also
besting Georgia Tech and Illinois outside of the conference. But it
has been the frustration of the ?close but no cigar? outings that
keeps them from being rated much higher ? in five of their six S.E.C.
defeats they were within a possession of the lead inside the final 90
seconds of play. But there is nothing to be ashamed of through that
cycle ? a particularly tough roll of the schedule dice in conference
play has had them not face a team with a losing S.E.C. record yet.
That changes tonight.
Take a look at some of the numbers through that 2-6 conference
opening vs. tough competition ? the Bulldogs are shooting an
outstanding 49.2 percent from the field, including 42.7 from 3-point
range, and they are making 71.2 percent of their free throws. They
have already out-rebounded the competition by a major +46, and their
solid floor game shows in the fact that they have dished out 32 more
assists than their opponents. They have only been out-scored by seven
points in that 2-6 tally, showing just how misleading it is. But
getting the kind of confidence boost that Saturday?s decisive win
over Vanderbilt provided works wonders for their confidence going
forward, and they have not played their best basketball yet ? not
only are they getting a better feel for Fox?s system, but guys like
6-10/245 Trey Thompkins (at 17.5 ppg and 7.8 rebounds there may not
be a more under-rated player in the nation), 6-11/265 Albert Jackson
and 6-8/264 Jeremy Price are not going to be wearing down any time
soon. If anything, this is the kind of physical team that will be
wearing out the opposition in February.
Auburn is a prime team to get worn down by this kind of physical
front-line. The Tigers bring little size or depth, with DeWayne Reed
(36.6), Lucas Hargrove (34.8), Tay Waller (32.4) and Frankie Sullivan
(31.8) all logging major minutes in S.E.C. play, and their 2-6 record
is far different from that of Georgia?s. Not only has the schedule
been weaker, but they have been out-scored by 56 points, allowing an
ugly 49.9 percent shooting, while losing the battle of the boards by
a dozen. Both of their conference wins were point blank escapes,
winning by four vs. lowly L.S.U. (and allowing 80 points in the
process to a team that has not topped 63 in any other league game),
and getting that one-point home win vs. Alabama when Mikhail Torrance
failed to close it out for the Crimson Tide at the free throw line.
Nothing can come easily for this limited bunch, especially with their
atrocious 62.3 percent free throw shooting in conference play
(Sullivan is the only starter shooting better than 66.7, and he
rarely gets to the line). Their lithe front line can be pushed around
by this kind of opponent, and the lack of depth also means few fouls
to give, making the matchup even more difficult.
