Service Plays Wednesday 12/29/10

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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 297-137 (.684)
ATS: 218-228 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 618-651 (.487)
Over/Under: 221-234 (.486)
Over/Under Vary Units: 280-290 (.491)

ATLANTA 107, Golden State 98
CHARLOTTE 96, Cleveland 90
Indiana 99, WASHINGTON 98
Boston 98, DETROIT 88
Denver 112, MINNESOTA 106
L.A. Lakers 97, NEW ORLEANS 95
OKLAHOMA CITY 104, New Jersey 92
Miami 99, HOUSTON 97
PHOENIX 108, Philadelphia 101
Memphis 103, SACRAMENTO 97
Utah 103, L.A. CLIPPERS 96
 
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DCI NHL

Season: 174-121 (.590)

N.Y. Rangers 3, NEW JERSEY 2
Pittsburgh vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Carolina vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
San Jose vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHOENIX 3, Los Angeles 2
 
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Was Dr Bob's Iowa winner a 2 or 3 *?

DR BOB

2 Star Selection
**Iowa 27 Missouri (-3.0) 20 (at Insight Bowl)
07:00 PM Pacific, 28-Dec-10
Iowa ended the season with 3 consecutive close losses (all by 4 points or less), but teams that end the regular season that poorly tend to bounce-back with a good performance in their bowl game. Teams of 3 or more consecutive losses are 18-7 ATS in bowl games as long as they’re not favored by 7 points or more. Iowa also applies to a very good 36-9 ATS bowl situation while Missouri applies to a negative 6-17 ATS bowl situation. In addition to the bowl angles my math model favors the Hawkeyes to win this game straight up and the line has gone from pick to Missouri by 3 points – so we have solid line value in addition to the good situation.

Missouri is a pretty good offensive team, averaging 5.8 yards per play in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but that unit should struggle against a very good Iowa stop unit. The Hawkeyes allowed just 4.9 yards per play and 17.3 points per game to a schedule of Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.8 yppl and average 28.8 points against an average defensive team. Iowa defends the run and pass well and it will be a challenge for the Tigers to move the ball in this game.

Iowa’s offense averaged a very good 6.2 yppl this season while facing teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack but the Hawkeyes will be without leading rusher Adam Robinson and #2 receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who are both suspended for this game. Losing Robinson doesn’t appear to be a problem given that is 4.6 ypr average is less than the team average of 4.8 yards per rushing play and freshman RB Marcus Coker averaged 5.0 ypr on his 81 rushes this season. Not having Johnson-Koulianos could be a problem, as quarterback Ricky Stanzi averaged 8.9 yards per pass thrown to Johnson-Koulianos. That’s only slightly less than Stanzi’s 8.7 ypa overall average, but the receivers that will be playing in place of Johnson-Koulianos combined for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, which would result in a difference of 0.4 yards per pass play if you plug in 7.4 ypa instead of 8.9 ypa for the 83 passes thrown to Johnson-Koulianos in the 11 games against 1A opponents. I still rate Iowa’s offense at 0.4 yppl better than average with their available personnel, which is the same rating as Missouri’s offense.

The difference in this game is that the Missouri’s defense isn’t nearly as good as Iowa’s defense. The Tigers allowed 5.0 yppl this season to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit, which is not as good as Iowa’s 0.9 yppl better than average defensive rating. Missouri’s defense actually has a slight advantage over Iowa’s offense without Johnson-Koulianos and my math model projects the Hawkeyes with 340 yards at 5.3 yppl in this game. That’s better than the 331 yards at 5.0 yppl that Missouri is expected to gain against Iowa’s even better defense and my math model favors Iowa by 0.3 points in this game.

The line move from pick to 3 points has given us line value and Iowa is in a very favorable situation, so I’ll take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 3-Stars if the line gets to +3 ½ points or more.
Strong Opinion
 
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NBA
Write-Up


Wednesday, December 29

Hot Teams
-- Hawks won three of their last four games. Golden State won last three games, covered four of last five.
-- Celtics won 15 of last 16 games; they're 6-4 as a road favorite. Pistons covered five of their last six games.
-- Thunder is 7-4 in last eleven games as a home favorite.
-- Hornets won their last four home games.
-- Minnesota won its last two games, covered six of last seven.
-- Miami is 15-1 in its last 16 games; they covered six of last seven as a road favorite. Rockets won last five games; they covered four of last six as an underdog.
-- 76ers are 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as road underdog.
-- Grizzlies won last two games, covered 11 of last 14.
-- Clippers won five of their last six games. Utah won three of four.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost six of their last eight games (0-7-1 vs spread). Wizards lost three in row, 10 of last 11 games.
-- Cleveland lost its last four games, by 11-14-1-15 points. Bobcats lost four of their last five games.
-- Nets covered once in last eight games as road underdog.
-- Lakers lost last three games, scoring 79-80-82 points.
-- Nuggets lost three of their last four games.
-- Suns lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Sacramento lost its last eight games (1-7 vs spread).

Totals
-- Last eight Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total. Warriors' last four games all went over.
-- Five of last seven Charlotte games stayed under total.
-- Last four Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last three New Jersey games went over the total. Under is 8-3 in last eleven Oklahoma City games.
-- Seven of last nine Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Denver games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Memphis games.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in Clipers' last eight home games.

Back-to-Back
-- Pacers are 2-3 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Cavaliers are 1-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Celtics are 2-3 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Lakers are 2-2 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Nuggets are 2-4 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Miami is 3-4 vs spread if it played night before.

 
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NCAAB
Write-Up


Wednesday, December 29

Home teams won eight of last nine Bradley-Indiana State games; Braves lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 12-10-6. Both games in series LY went OT. Bradley is 1-3 away from home, losing at Western Carolina by 1, to TCU by 6 on neutral floor- they're 1-2 as underdogs. Sycamores are 3-1 as favorite- they lost three of last four games.

West Virginia won last 10 games vs St John's; Red Storm lost last five in this gym, by 4-4-27-9-23 points. Mountaineers haven't played in last 11 days since its 11-point win over 13-1 Cleveland State; they're 1-5-1 vs spread as fave this season. 7-3 St John's is 0-2 on road, losing by 5 at St Mary's, by 3 at a bad Fordham team- they're 0-1 as an underdog.

Notre Dame beat Georgetown last two years, by 6-14 points, after they had lost previous five series games; Irish are 11-1, losing to Kentucky by 14 in Louisville- they're 1-1 as underdogs. Hoyas are 11-1, winning road games by 3 at Old Dominion, 17 at Memphis (they lost at Temple by 3) Georgetown is 7-2 vs spread this year when favored.

Home side won last seven Evansville-Wichita games; Purple Aces lost last seven visits here, by 17-10-13-8-14-1-6ot points. 9-2 Shockers are 1-2 vs spread as favorite, winning last two games by combined total of 4 points (LSU/Tulsa). Evansville is 2-2 as road underdog, losing on road by 13 at Indiana (+!2), 12 at MTSU (+4), 1 at Air Force (+2.5).

Drake beat Southern Illinois three times LY, by 5-7-2 points; Salukis are 2-5 in last seven series games, 1-2 in last three visits here. Bulldogs are 5-6, 2-2 at home, with bad loss to Dartmouth and a 59-52 loss to Iowa. 6-5 Salukis won four of last five games; they're 1-2 on road, losing by 22 at Illinois, 7 at Western Kentucky, winning at Chicago State.

Northern Iowa won last four games vs Missouri State; Bears lost their last three visits to UNI, by 15-14-8 points. Panthers won last five after a 2-3 start vs D-I teams, beating Indiana/New Mexico on neutral court in Vegas last week. Missouri State won six of last seven games, but they're 0-3 on road, losing by 12 at Tulsa, 14 at Oklahoma St., 4 at Tennessee.

Creighton won its last four games, all at home; they're 0-3 on road, with losses by 3 at Iowa State, 13 at Northwestern, 5 at Nebraska- they lost three in row, six of last seven vs Illinois State, losing last five in series played here, by 10-3-14-22-9 points. Redbirds are struggling on offense, scoring an average of 58.1 ppg in their last seven games.

Utah State won its last four games vs Hawai'i by average of 23 points; Warriors lost last five visits here by 8-11-6-20-44 points. 11-2 Aggies won last six games, covered last four when favored. Hawai'i won two of three at home in Diamond Head, beating Utah/Mississippi State- they're 0-2 on road, losing by point at Cal Poly, by 21 at BYU.

Illinois is 10-2 in last 12 games vs Iowa, winning last four, by 11-8-17-8 points; Illini is 4-2 in last six visits here, winning last two by 11-8 pts. Illinois lost last two games, to Ill-Chicago/Missouri- they beat Gonzaga in Seattle, won by 15 at W. Michigan. Iowa is 7-0 when it allows 58 or less points, 0-5 when it allows more. Illinois averages 69 ppg.

New Mexico State won eight of last nine games vs Idaho, losing here by 10 LY; six of their previous seven series wins were by 10+ points. State won four of last five games after 2-7 start- they're 1-5 away from home, with only win at UL-Lafayette. Idaho won five of last seven games after losing by 42 at Montana- they won at Oregon in their last game.

Boise State won four of last six games vs Louisiana Tech, winning two of last three played here; Broncos lost five of last six games after starting 6-0- they've lost four games by 3 or less points. Tech lost four of last five road games- they're 1-3 as an underdog this year. Boise State is 5-2 against the spread as a favorite this season.

USC is 5-3 in last eight games vs Washington, which lost three of its last four visits here, losing by 7-15-26 points; Trojans won four of last five games, losing by hoop at Kansas, as addition of transfer PG Fortan has been big help. Washington is 8-3 but lost only road game by a point at Texas A&M- they covered their last five games as a favorite.

UCLA is 12-1 in last 13 games vs Washington State, winning last three meetings by 11-12-20 points; Cougars lost five of their last six visits to Pauley, losing by 3-2-3-7-12 points, but Wazzu is 10-2, losing by 5 to Kansas State, by 16 to Butler. 7-4 Bruins lost to Montana at home and lost by point at Kansas- they've won their last five games.

Home side won eight of last ten Fresno-San Jose games; Spartans lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 5-7-3-13-17-10 points. 8-3 San Jose is 4-2 on road, losing at Bakersfield/UTSA, but winning at Oregon, Irvine, Seattle and Eastern Washington. Fresno is 3-6 vs D-I teams, but 3-1 in last four games, losing last game by 10 at home to Pacific.

Montana won five of last seven games vs Northern Arizona, winning all three meetings LY, by 17-20-21 points; Griz won five of last six games overall- they're 2-5 vs spread when favored. Northern Arizona is 4-1 as a road underdog this year, losing by 14 at Iowa St, 4 at Creighton, 8 at USC, 5 at Arizona- they covered three of those four losses.

Weber State won seven of its last nine games vs Montana State; Weber won last three visits here, by 2-20-3 points, but their best player Lillard is out for year. Weber is 1-3 on road, losing at Utah State by 12, Utah by 15, Tulsa by 2- they won at Southern Utah. Bobcats lost last five vs D-I teams. Underdogs covered five of last six Weber State games.

Eastern Washington won six of last seven games vs Sacramento State, as Hornets lost last seven visits here by 26-3-8-12-24-21-4 points. EWU is 1-8 vs D-I teams, with only win by 4 over Seattle- they're 0-1 as a fave. Sacramento is also 1-8 vs D-I teams, 1-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 4-48-25-20-2-13 points.

Portland State won five of last six games vs Northern Colorado-- Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-3-16 points. State is 1-2 as favorite, with home wins by 2 vs Pepperdine, 7 vs Seattle, 4 vs Fullerton- they've lost three of last four games vs D-I teams. Northern Colorado is 2-7 vs D-I teams, losing all six of their road games.

 
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NHL
Write-Up


Wednesday, December 29

Hot Teams
-- Rangers won five of their last seven road games.
-- Pittsburgh won four of its last five games. Islanders won three of their last four games.
-- Red Wings won three of their last four games.
-- Los Angeles won its last four games, allowing three goals. San Jose won four of its last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Devils lost five in row, 10 of last 11 games.
-- Ottawa lost six of its last eight home games. Hurricanes lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five home games.
-- Dallas Stars lost three of last four home games.
-- Coyotes lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four New Jersey games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Islander games.
-- Over is 10-6 in last 16 Carolina road games. Four of last five Ottawa games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Kings' last five games all stayed under the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Penguins are 6-1 if they played the night before.
-- Carolina is 3-1 if playing second straight night on road.
-- Dallas Stars are 3-2 if they played the night before.
-- Phoenix is 3-5 if it played the night before, 2-4 if it lost.

Series Records
-- Rangers won last three games vs New Jersey, outscoring them 10-4.
-- Pittsburgh won 16 of last 20 games against the Islanders.
-- Home side won last 12 Carolina-Ottawa games; Hurricanes lost last six visits to Ottawa.
-- Sharks won five of last six games against Minnesota.
-- Red Wings lost seven of last eight games against Dallas.
-- Kings are 4-10 in last 14 visits to Phoenix, 4-4 in last eight.

 
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30 DIME* Eastern Carolina +7.5 (-115) **240pm EST Kickoff**
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