Wunderdog
Game: Wright State at Mississippi State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Wright State +10.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Wright State is definitely an under-the-radar type of team and may give Butler a run in the Horizon Conference. They lost the Horizon Finals to a big-time Butler team by just five last year, and have a lot of pieces back. They have already been tested on the road vs. a good Washington team, losing to the Huskies by just five, so they definitely can hang in this one. The Bulldogs get a lot of ink with Varnado blocking shots inside, and the fact that this is an SEC team vs. a mid-level conference team means we get a juiced line. Wright State has soared in non-conference games going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as well as 17-7 ATS as a dog, so we definitely have a live dog here, so I'll go with Wright State.
Game: Cincinnati at U A B (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U A B +2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of Vaughn, Yates and freshman Stephenson, but the rest of the cast has not been so good and their best player, Vaughn, is not shooting well as he gets a lot of attention. The Blazers have quietly gone 8-1, including 6-0 at home and are a force to be dealt with here. This is a deep team that likes to play pressure defense, and with a frosh, Stephenson, handling the ball with just 20 assists to 17 turnovers, it could become a chaotic spot for the Bearcats who are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Conference USA opponents. UAB is a sparkling 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a home dog, and I like them in that role here.
Game: Wake Forest at N C Wilmington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 150 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This total is much higher than I expected and I think it is mostly predicated upon the game these teams played a year ago that saw Wake Forest win a 120-88 game. It was when NC-Wilmington started the season trying to play up-tempo, and realized the style didn't fit the team. They averaged over 100 points per game through the first three then did an about-face. They spent 17 of the last 26 in the 60s or lower. The theme hasn't changed as three games against BCS Conference teams have not reached this total. Wake Forest has now played 14 of their last 17 non-conference games on the road UNDER the total, while eight of the last 11 Seadog games at home have also gone UNDER the total. I think that the oddsmakers have a horrible read on this one, so I'll go with the UNDER here.
Game: Clemson at Eastern Carolina (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 152 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tigers have been up over 70 points in all but one of their 10 games on the season, mostly playing at home or neutral sites. The two times they have been playing to a total of 150 or higher, they have failed to top it. These teams also matched up last year and failed to reach this number. The Pirates have also played against Wake Forest this season and failed to produce this many points, and this one looks to high to me. When you factor in the fact that Clemson, as a big favorite of 13 or more, has played six straight to the UNDER while the Pirates have played eight straight UNDER this season, it is hard to overlook, so I'll play this one UNDER.
Game: Canisius at Duquesne (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Canisius +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Dukes have an impressive win/loss mark, but when you look at the offense it isn't designed to get covers against big numbers. The Dukes are 7-3 straight-up, but are just a poor 1-5 ATS. The biggest reason is an offense that has produced just 53.5 points per game in the last four and that includes overtime. That certainly makes it difficult to tackle the big number posted here. The Golden Griffins are more than content to play slow as their last five have produced an average total score of 126 ppg. The Dukes’ lack of scoring has led them to a 1-7 ATS mark in their last eight at home. This one is posted too high for the type of game expected, so I'll go with Canisius here.
Game: Santa Clara at Rice (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Rice -7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Santa Clara certainly has a misleading record at this point as they enter here at 6-4, but have two wins over teams below Div-1. They beat Houston Baptist and escaped by three against Cal Bakersfield - hardly notable opponents. Rice is the deeper team here with nine players getting meaningful minutes and contributing. With Ben Dowdell out, that puts Santa Clara down to six contributing players, and will be the reason for their fade late in this one against a deep and equally talented Rice team. I'll back the Owl's here.
Game: Mississippi vs. U T E P (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 152 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Miners suffered their first loss of the season at home to the hands of New Mexico St. The offense has come pretty freely for this team in the early going, but they have not seen a team the caliber of the Rebels. The Rebels are holding teams to 41.1% for the season and just 32% from deep. Mississippi is off to an 8-1 start, but the quality has been lacking, and when they have played premier teams the scoring has come down, as I expect it will here also for both teams. Mississippi has played 10 of their last 13 vs. Conference USA opponents to the UNDER. The UNDER has also gone 5-1 in UTEP games after a straight-up loss. I like the UNDER in this one.
Game: Oregon State at Illinois Chicago (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oregon State -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Oregon State is heading in the right direction. Two years ago this program was depleted and won just five games. Last year they made it to the CBI Tournament and won the Championship. They already own wins over Colorado and George Washington this year, and played Texas Tech to a four-point game on the road. Illinois Chicago has had their moments, but this year won't be one of them. They have yet to beat a Div-1 team this season. They have committed 104 turnovers to just 63 assists and don't have anyone shooting over 30% from deep, and the top four scorers are under 40% from the field. This is an Oregon State team that is better than what we have seen and should have no problem winning on the road here. I'll go with Oregon State.
Game: Arkansas Little Rock at South Alabama (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Alabama -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Jaguars are off to an impressive 7-3 start and have yet to lose at home, while Arkansas Little Rock has yet to find the win column on the road this season. The Jags have an impressive 13-point win at Arkansas - never an easy task. They are a very balanced team and are getting good shooting through seven deep and impressively, they have six players with double-digit assists, so good cohesion on the offensive end. Solomon Bozeman has done everything for the Trojans, which is part of the problem. The lack of talent has caused him to have the ball too much, and he is the lowest-percentage shooter of the top five, but the leading scorer and has already committed 29 turnovers. It is hard to win with one player, and the Jags’ balance and home court prove decisive here. I’m South Alabama in this one.
