THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16
NBA
Dallas (18-7, 13-12 ATS) at Oklahoma City (12-11, 14-9 ATS)
The Mavericks, who are in the midst of playing six of seven games at home, make their one road trip during this stretch when they stop at the Ford Center, where they’ll try to extend a four-game winning streak and hand the Thunder their third straight defeat.
Dallas held off New Orleans 94-90 on Monday, but came up way short as an 8½-point home chalk. Although the Mavericks have won four in a row – with the three of the victories coming by a total of six points – they’re mired in a 2-7 ATS funk. On the positive end, Dallas pummeled Miami 106-93 as a 1½-point road chalk on Friday to improve to 9-4 SU and ATS on the highway this season.
Oklahoma City is coming off near-identical losses to Cleveland on Sunday (102-89, falling as a 3½-point home underdog) and Denver on Monday (102-93, cashing as a 10-point road pup). Monday’s setback to the Nuggets snapped the Thunder’s string of 17 straight games without consecutive SU defeats. Oklahoma City has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six home games.
Although the Thunder covered in the loss at Denver on Monday, the SU winner is still 21-2 ATS in their 23 games this season, including 9-0 ATS in their last nine at home. Meanwhile, the winner has cashed in all 13 of Dallas’ roadies this year.
The host has won six consecutive meetings in this rivalry, but Oklahoma City is 5-0-1 ATS during this stretch, all as an underdog. Going back a little further, though, the visitor is on a 5-2-1 ATS roll when these teams square off, and Dallas is still 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games against the Thunder franchise going back to their days as the Seattle SuperSonics.
Dallas’ ATS slumps including 2-7 overall, 1-5 against the Western Conference, 2-6 versus Northwest Division foes, 1-5 as a favorite and 9-19 when laying less than five points on the highway, but the Mavericks’ 7-2 ATS streak on the road is buoyed by a 21-8 ATS mark in their last 29 Wednesday contests.
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five after getting just one day of rest, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a spread-cover, 3-7 in its last 10 as a home ‘dog and 1-4 ATS in its last five when catching less than five points at home, but it is on positive pointspread tears of 4-1 against the Western Conference, 12-4 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 on Wednesday and 38-16 after a SU defeat. Also, from a pointspread perspective, the Thunder haven’t cashed in more than two straight games all season, but they haven’t had back-to-back non-covers all year, either.
The Mavs are on “over” runs of 7-1 on the highway, 9-3 against winning teams, 10-4 after one day of rest, 5-2 following a SU win 4-1 as a road favorite and 13-4 when laying less than five points. The over is also 5-2-1 in the Thunder’s last eight home games and 12-5 in their last 17 after a SU defeat, but otherwise Oklahoma City is on “under” runs of 3-0-1 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 10-3-1 as a home pup. Likewise, the under in this rivalry is on runs of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Houston (14-10, 15-9 ATS) at Denver (18-7, 13-12 ATS)
The Nuggets shoot for their third straight victory overall and fifth straight win at home when they host the Rockets at the Pepsi Center.
Houston is coming off Tuesday’s 107-96 rout of Detroit as a 5½-point home favorite. The Rockets are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games, including 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the road. In fact, Houston has won six of its last nine as a visitor, going 7-2 ATS. Rick Adleman’s squad has topped triple digits in nine of its last 13 road games.
Carmelo Anthony scored 31 points, leading five Denver players in double-digit scoring in Monday’s 102-93 home win over the Thunder. However, the Nuggets fell short as a 10-point favorite, their fourth straight non-cover (all as a favorite) following a 9-3 ATS run. George Karl’s squad is now 11-1 at the Pepsi Center (7-5 ATS), averaging 115 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) while allowing 102.1 ppg (45.7 percent). Denver has scored more than 100 points in all 12 home contests.
The Rockets have won three straight in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 97-95 win in Denver as a four-point road underdog in the final meeting of last season. Prior to that contest, though, the host had won seven straight series meetings going back to the 2007-08 campaign (5-2 ATS). Houston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 battles with the Nuggets, going 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to the Pepsi Center.
In addition to cashing in five of seven overall and seven of nine on the road, the Rockets are on ATS tears of 6-0 against Northwest Division opponents, 5-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup and 6-1 on Wednesday. The Nuggets’ 0-4 ATS drought is balanced by positive pointspread stretches of 15-7 at home, 27-11 against Western Conference foes, 27-10 against Southwest Division opponents, 6-2 on Wednesday, 25-12 versus teams with a winning record, 43-15-1 as a favorite of 5 to 10½ points and 36-14-1 as a favorite in that range at home.
Houston soared over the total last night against Detroit, ending an 8-0 “under” stretch. Still, the Rockets are on low-scoring sprees of 6-0 on the road, 5-0 against Western Conference opponents, 8-3 versus the Northwest Division, 4-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 10-4 when playing back-to-back nights. Denver carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 when playing on one day of rest and 4-1 against Western Conference competition. Conversely, three of the last four meetings between these clubs have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(25) Cincinnati (6-2, 3-3 ATS) at UAB (8-1, 4-3 ATS)
The Bearcats hope to rebound for a tough double-overtime loss to rival Xavier when they head to Bartow Arena in Birmingham for a non-conference clash with UAB.
Cincinnati’s two defeats this season came in overtime – one to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational championship game in November (61-59 as a one-point chalk) and one at Xavier on Sunday (83-79 as a 3½-point road underdog). In Sunday’s double-OT setback, the Bearcats shot just 37.6 percent from the field, missing 18 of 23 from three-point land. The 83 points allowed were by far a season-high for Cincinnati, which had limited its first seven opponents to 68 points or less (and 60.3 points per game).
The Blazers have won seven straight games, with six of those coming at Bartow Arena, but they’ve been idle since Dec. 4 when they trashed East Tennessee State 74-52 in a non-lined outing. Six of UAB’s eight wins have been double-digit blowouts, while the other two were by a total of four points. The team’s lone loss came at currently-ranked Kansas State, 72-65 as a 2½-point underdog back on Nov. 14. With the exception of Kansas State, UAB has limited every opponent to 64 points or fewer, with six of nine foes scoring less than 60 points. reproach
These teams have met nine times this decade – including twice in 2001 – with the home team winning seven of the last eight battles (4-4 ATS). Last year, the Bearcats prevailed 87-80 as a three-point home chalk, ending UAB’s two-game SU winning streak and four-game ATS run. Still, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the ‘dog cashed in seven of those 10.
Cincinnati is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 Wednesday contests, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-7-1 against Conference USA opponents, 1-5 on the highway, 1-5 as a favorite, 1-4 after a SU loss and 0-4 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, the Blazers have failed to cover in five straight games against the Big East, four straight as an underdog and five of seven versus opponents that have a winning record, but they’re 13-6 ATS in their past 19 contests as a home ‘dog.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for the Bearcats overall, 5-0 for the Bearcats as a favorite, 7-2 for UAB overall, 4-1 for UAB at home, 5-2 for UAB as a home underdog and 3-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UAB and UNDER
Oklahoma State (8-1, 2-1-1 ATS) at Stanford (5-3, 3-2-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State plays just it second true road game of the season when it treks to Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, Calif., for a non-league battle with the Cardinal.
The Cowboys’ first true roadie came at Tulsa on Dec. 2, and the results weren’t pretty as they lost 86-65 as a 1½-point road underdog. However, they bounced back quickly with a pair of non-lined home victories over Texas San-Antonio (61-55 on Dec. 5) and Arkansas Pine-Bluff (81-66 on Sunday). Oklahoma State has scored 77 points or more in six of nine games, and they’re averaging 77 ppg (46.5 percent shooting) while holding opponents to just 63.3 ppg (38.3 percent).
Stanford has won four of its last five games (3-1 ATS in lined action), and the one blemish was a 73-65 overtime loss to still-unbeaten and now-third-ranked Kentucky as a 10-point underdog in a preseason tournament in Cancun. The Cardinal followed up that tough defeat with a pair of easy home wins over Portland State (83-64 as a 12½-point favorite on Nov. 29) and U.C. Davis (85-69 as a 19-point chalk on Sunday). Stanford is 4-1 at home (1-1-1 ATS in lined games), putting up 83.6 ppg (50.5 percent shooting) and holding the opposition to 67.6 ppg (44.6 percent).
This is the first meeting between these schools.
Going back to last season, Oklahoma State is on pointspread hot streaks of 13-2-1 overall in lined games, 5-2 on the road, 5-1-2 in non-conference action, 10-2-1 after a SU win and 10-2-1 against winning teams. The only negatives for the Cowboys: a 5-14 ATS mark on Wednesday, a 5-11-1 ATS mark as an underdog and a 4-10-1 ATS mark as a road pup.
Stanford sports ATS trends of 3-1-1 overall, 4-1-2 at home, 12-3-1 in non-conference contests, 5-2 versus Big 12 teams, 5-2 on Wednesday and 21-8-1 against winning teams.
The under is on stretches of 5-2 for the Cowboys in non-league contests, 7-3 for the Cowboys after a SU victory, 6-2 for the Cardinal against the Big 12, 6-1 for the Cardinal on Wednesday, 9-4 for the Cardinal as a favorite and 4-1 for the Cardinal after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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