THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 9
NBA
Cleveland (15-6, 11-10 ATS) at Houston (11-9, 12-8 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to get back on track after Tuesday’s stunning loss at Memphis when they conclude a quick three-game, four-day road trip with a battle with the Rockets at the Toyota Center.
Cleveland took a four-game SU and ATS winning streak to Memphis last night and lost 111-109 in overtime, falling as a seven-point road favorite. Prior to Tuesday, the Cavs had won four straight games by double digits while scoring more than 100 points in every contest (105 ppg) and limiting all five opponents to 95 points or less (89.5 ppg).
Since starting the season with consecutive losses to Boston at home and Toronto on the road, the Cavaliers are 15-4 SU, including 7-3 SU and ATS on the highway. The winner has covered the spread in all 11 of Cleveland’s road games.
Houston is coming off a four-game road trip that began with three straight victories over Oklahoma City, the Clippers and Golden State, but it came up just short of completing the perfect trip Saturday, falling 90-89 at Portland. The Rockets did cash as a 5 ½-point ‘dog against the Blazers, improving to 3-1 ATS in their last four following an 0-3 ATS hiccup. On the downside, Rick Adelman’s squad has lost two in a row and three of four at home, failing to cash in all four games, with the defense surrendering 109.8 ppg.
These teams split their season series last year, with the host prevailing in each contest, including the Rockets’ 93-74 rout as a 3½-point home underdog. The Rockets are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four head-to-head matchups and 7-3 SU (8-2 ATS) in the last 10, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five years at the Toyota Center. Finally in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in six of the last seven meetings and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
In addition to cashing in four of their last five games overall, the Cavaliers are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 on the highway, 4-0 against the Southwest Division, 6-3 against the Western Conference, 15-5-1 versus opponents with a winning record and 13-6 on Wednesday.
The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six on Wednesday and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference, but their 0-4 ATS slump at home is bolstered by a 2-7-1 ATS mark in their last 10 against teams from the Central Division. Also, the underdog is 10-2 ATS in Houston’s last 12 games, including 4-0 at the Toyota Center.
The under is on runs of 4-2 for Cleveland overall, 7-1 for Cleveland against winning teams, 5-0 for Houston overall, 5-1 for Houston against winning teams and 19-9 for Houston when playing on Wednesday. Also, these teams have stayed under the total in five of their last six meetings overall and six of the last seven battles in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Utah (12-8, 11-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (16-3, 9-10 ATS)
The Lakers gun for their 10th consecutive victory when they entertain the Jazz at the Staples Center for the first time since these squads met in the opening round of last year’s playoffs.
Utah escaped with a 104-101 home win over the Spurs on Monday, sinking two free throws with less than two seconds remaining to cash as a two-point favorite. The Jazz have won five of their last seven and eight of their last 10, and they’re also on a 9-3 ATS run (3-1 ATS last four on the road). Jerry Sloan’s squad had limited four straight opponents to an average of 89.5 ppg – going 4-0 SU and ATS, all at home – but has since given up 108 and 101 in its last two outings, splitting the contests both SU and ATS.
Two days after keeping its streak alive with a last-second 108-107 home victory over Miami as a 12 ½-point favorite, Los Angeles got back to its dominating ways Sunday, blowing out the Suns 108-88 as a 9½-point home chalk for its ninth straight win. The Lakers are 6-3 ATS during their winning streak, scoring in triple digits in every game while the defense has allowed only Miami to reach the century mark. Also, eight of the nine wins have been double-digit routs (again, only exception being against the Heat), and L.A.’s average margin of victory has been 14.3 ppg (108.6-94.3). Phil Jackson’s squad has scored in triple figures in each of its last 15 wins while managing just 91, 79 and 80 points in its three defeats.
The Jazz have alternated wins and losses in their last seven road games, most recently losing at Minnesota 108-101 as a 7 ½-point favorite on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Lakers have played 15 of their first 19 games at the Staples Center, including eight of nine during their current winning streak.
The Lakers have eliminated Utah from the postseason each of the last two years, needing five games to do the job last year, going just 2-3 ATS. Los Angeles is 5-1 in the last six meetings (3-3 ATS), and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 matchups in Hollywood. Also, the home team has won 15 of the last 18 SU in this rivalry and is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 clashes.
The winner is 17-3 ATS in Utah’s 20 games this season (7-0 ATS last seven) and 11-3 in the Lakers’ last 14 contests (9-2 ATS last 11 at home).
Utah is on pointspread upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-0 when playing after one day of rest, but it has failed to cash in 15 of 22 road games, 12 of 17 after a SU win and six of seven on Wednesday. The Lakers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a spread-cover.
For the Jazz, the over on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-0 against the Western Conference, 6-1 when playing on one day of rest and 8-3 against winning teams. The over is also 3-1-1 in L.A.’s last five overall, 8-3 in its last 11 against winning teams and 7-3 in its last 10 on Wednesday. Finally, these teams have topped the total in eight of their last 11 meetings overall and six of their last seven contests at the Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(4) Kentucky vs. (14) UConn
(at New York)
UConn returns to Madison Square Garden for the second time in less than three weeks as it tries to knock the Wildcats from the ranks of the unbeatens in the SEC/Big East Invitational.
The Huskies shot just 36.1 percent from the field and missed 13 of 28 free-throw attempts in an ugly 68-59 loss to Duke at the Garden back on Nov. 7. However, they’ve bounced back with a pair of home victories over Boston University (92-64 in a non-lined contest) and Harvard (79-73, falling way short as an 18½-point favorite). Take away the poor offensive effort against Duke, and UConn has scored at least 75 points in every game (all victories), averaging 80 ppg.
Kentucky held off No. 10 North Carolina 68-66 on Saturday, falling just short of covering as a 3½-point home favorite. Patrick Patterson (19 points, seven rebounds) and true freshman John Wall (16 points, five rebounds, seven assists) led the way for the Wildcats, who won despite committing 20 turnovers and making just 14 of 22 foul shots, but the defense stepped up, limiting the defending champs to just 38.8 percent shooting. First-year coach John Calipari has seen his team pull out a pair of two-point home wins (68-66 over UNC; 72-70 over Miami of Ohio), while also needed overtime to knock off Stanford in a neutral-site game.
These college basketball superpowers last met in the second round of the 2006 NCAA Tournament, with the Huskies scoring an 87-83 win and Kentucky cashing as a nine-point underdog.
In lined action, UConn is on ATS runs of 8-3 at neutral sites, 8-3 against the SEC and 4-0 on Wednesday, but the Huskies have failed to cover in six of seven overall and five of six after a SU win. Kentucky is in ATS slumps of 2-5 overall, 3-7 after an outright victory and 0-5 on Wednesday, but it is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 14 against Big East opponents.
UConn has topped the total in eight of 11 overall, five of seven in non-conference play and 19 of 26 at neutral sites, and Kentucky has gone over the number in four of five against the Big East. Conversely, the Wildcats are on “under” runs of 9-2 overall, 5-0 at neutral venues, 6-2 after a SU win and 13-6 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(3) Villanova (8-0, 6-1 ATS) vs. St. Joe’s (3-4, 2-4 ATS)
(at Philadelphia)
Villanova puts its unblemished record on the line in an annual “Big Five” clash with Philadelphia-area rival St. Joe’s at the Palestra
The Wildcats moved to 8-0 with Sunday’s 95-86 rout of Maryland, cashing as a 2½-point road favorite, their fifth straight spread-cover. Villanova has topped 70 points in all but one game – when it scored 69 in a one-point squeaker against George Mason – and is averaging 82.4 ppg despite shooting only 42.9 percent from the field. Going back to last year’s run to the Final Four, Villanova is on a 25-5 roll (20-9 ATS in lined games).
St. Joe’s started the season with three straight narrow wins over Drexel (77-67 in overtime), Holy Cross (69-67) and Boston College (84-80), but the Hawks have since dropped four in a row SU and ATS, most recently falling Sunday to Cornell 78-66 as a 10-point road underdog. St. Joe’s has put up just 62.5 ppg during its losing streak.
Villanova held off the Hawks 59-56 last year, but failed to cover as an 11½-point road favorite. The Wildcats have taken four of the last five meetings, but they’ve come up short of cashing the last two years following a 5-1-1 ATS run. Finally, the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
In addition to its 20-9 ATS run overall (5-0 ATS last five), Villanova is on ATS upticks of 4-1 on Wednesday, 7-2 against teams with losing records and 18-7-2 against opponents out of the Atlantic 10 Conference. St. Joe’s is in pointspread funks of 0-4 overall (all in non-conference play), 0-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after a SU defeat and 2-7 following an ATS loss.
For the Wildcats, the under is on streaks of 5-2 on the road, 18-7-1 in non-conference action, 19-7 versus the A-10 and 7-3 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, St. Joe’s has topped the total in five straight lined games overall, but otherwise the Hawks are on “under” tears of 5-2 at home, 4-0 against the Big East, 6-0 against winning teams and 25-12 on Wednesday.
Lastly, these squads have stayed under the total in each of their last six head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and UNDER
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