Sam Clayton
2* Minnesota Twins +160
Think this is finally the year the Twinkies get over the hump against the Yanks after going 0-3 their last three ALDS rounds against NYY. However, for the first time, Minnesota has the ever important home field advantage and they just so happened to be the BEST squad at home in the ENTIRE American League. Huge revenge spot for the Twins, who come into this series with a chip on their shoulder and a definite edge from a motivational standpoint.
Anybody that thinks the Yankees are going to walk through this series is poorly mistaken because this years Minnesota squad is much improved from 2009. They were DOMINANT in the AL Central and played great baseball for 150+ games before shutting down some key players down the stretch. Ron Gardenhire did the right thing allowing Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young to get some much needed rest and recovery --- I expect a stronger, fresher Twins ball club coming into the series. And for all the talk about the dangerous Yankees offense, the Twins scored the most runs per game in all of baseball since July.
Still, this series will come down to the PITCHING staffs, a category where I feel the Twins have a superior edge. Liriano, Pavano and Brian Duensing get my vote of confidence over the Yankee rotation because after C.C. Sabathia, I don't trust Andy Pettitte (winless since July 8 and STILL ironing out kinks since returning from injury three weeks ago) or Phil Hughes. Also, if C.C. struggles Game 1, which could very well happen given the line, the entire series could shift toward Minnesota right away. Lastly, the Twins win the important bullpen matchup running away. Shoring up their already awesome bullpen with Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps before the deadline was a direct plan for the postseason. In fact, I would argue that outside of San Francisco, the Twinkies have the best bullpen in the 2010 Playoffs. The Yankees on the other hand are still struggling to find that bridge between the starters and Mariano Rivera.
If Minnesota continues to grind out wins and play the type of situational baseball that has gotten them 'W's all season long, they will be fine. There's definite VALUE at +155 and with home field advantage PLUS the revenge and motivational aspirations against the Yankees, I'm diggin' this dog!