Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays - Wednesday October 22, 2008 8:20 pm
Pick: 3 units MONEYLINE: Philadelphia Phillies -106
While we’re not so sure that Philly will end up as the new World Series Champs, for reasons pointed out in our preview article in this newsletter, we are more confident about them victorious this game 1, as they have a number of factors in their favor. First, we’ll start with Philly SP (starting pitcher) Cole Hamels, who is a lefty “power” pitcher, which is a bad match-up for Rays because Tampa scores a full run less vs LHPs (4.1 RPG ) than against RHPs (5.2 RPG), including just 4.4 RPG at home vs LHPs, and also has trouble with power pitchers (just 3.9 RPG, compared to their overall average of 4.8 RPG). And Hamels not only has good overall #s (17-10 with a 2.9 ERA), but also very good road #s (8-3 with a 3.1 road ERA), but he has also pitched very well so far in TY’s playoffs, with a 3-0 record and just 3 ER yielded in 22 IP. And that includes holding hot hitting LA Dodgers to just one run in 7 IP in decisive game 5 of that series in LA, and Dodgers hit lefties much better (at 5.1 RPG) than Tampa does. Hamels has just one career start against Rays, in which he did not pitch very well (5 ER in just 3.2 IP), but that was in 2006, his rookie year, when he was nowhere near as good as he is now, so we disregard that, but had to mention it.
Rays counter with a lefty ace of their own, Scott Kazmir, who has had good #s TY (13-8 with a 3.55 ERA), but not as good as Hamels. However, tonite he pitches in his best pitching “mode” (home/night) – he is 9-2 in home starts with a 3.3 ERA (1-1 in home playoff starts, with a good start vs White Sox and a bad one vs Boston), and 11-3 in night starts, with a 3.0 ERA. However, he has been inconsistent “down the stretch,” with 3 recent bad starts (9 ER in just 3 IP at home vs Boston on 9/15, 4 ER in 5 IP in loss at Detroit in key game on 9/25, and 5 ER in just 4 IP in ALCS game 2 “no decision” at home against Boston). On the other hand, he has pitched a few “gems” lately as well, such as his wasted 6 innings of shut out pitching in his last start (ALCS game 5 Tampa loss at Boston blown by Rays’ bullpen) and a 5-0 shut out of Minny Twins on Sept. 20 at home. Kaz has one start vs Philly in last 3 years, a 7-2 win at Philly in which he gave up just 2 ER in 5 IP. But that was also in 2006, against a Philly team not nearly as good as this one. And Philly has been devouring LHPs TY with a 33-22 record and average of 5.4 RPG scored against “southpaws,” including 15-10 away vs LHPs for 5.2 RPG and 12-6 away at night vs LHPs. Kaz is a power/flyball pitcher, against which Philly does OK (4.5 RPG vs both), although not as good as their overall average of 4.9 RPG.
Both bullpens have pretty equivalent numbers overall, with Tampa at 2.95 ERA at home and Philly a 3.25 away. But we believe Phils have a huge edge with closers, with “perfect” (45-0 TY in save opportunities) Brad Lidge in their pitching arsenal, and playing status (chronic back stiffness) of Tampa #1 closer Troy Percival still in doubt (did not pitch in either playoff series, and officially listed as “questionable” for World Series), and back-up Tampa closer Wheeler decent, but certainly no Lidge (and even a significant drop off from Percival, when Percy is healthy). Lidge also sports a 1.95 ERA, but it’s his microscopic 075 road ERA, in 37 IP that really gets our attention.
As far as team edges go, they cut both ways, but here are the ones we see:
Positives for Philly/negatives for Tampa
Philly is 47-39 away, including 37-25 away in night games, like this one.
The aforementioned discrepancy between the two teams vs LHPs (Philly very good, Tampa not so good, but not as bad at home)
In game one of a series, Phils have a big edge over Tampa, at 37-17 (incl 2-0 in playoffs) compared to Rays’ so-so 30-24 (and 1-1 in playoffs)
Positives for Tampa/negatives for Philly
Tampa’s great home record (now 61-26 after Rays’ 4-2 home playoff record in rounds one and two vs both “Sox teams”), as well as a good 19-7 home record in one run games (compared to Philly’s 12-14 road record in one run games)
Managing edge of Tampa’s Joe Madden over Philly’s Charlie Manuel (see our series preview article for more detail on that edge)
Tampa 12-6 TY vs NL, and Philly just 4-11 TY vs AL, but those games were all in May and June, when Philly was not playing nearly as well
The overall 60 % win percentage of AL over NL (80-53) in games played in last 24 World Series
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays - Wednesday October 22, 2008 8:20 pm
Pick: 3 units MONEYLINE: Philadelphia Phillies -106
While we’re not so sure that Philly will end up as the new World Series Champs, for reasons pointed out in our preview article in this newsletter, we are more confident about them victorious this game 1, as they have a number of factors in their favor. First, we’ll start with Philly SP (starting pitcher) Cole Hamels, who is a lefty “power” pitcher, which is a bad match-up for Rays because Tampa scores a full run less vs LHPs (4.1 RPG ) than against RHPs (5.2 RPG), including just 4.4 RPG at home vs LHPs, and also has trouble with power pitchers (just 3.9 RPG, compared to their overall average of 4.8 RPG). And Hamels not only has good overall #s (17-10 with a 2.9 ERA), but also very good road #s (8-3 with a 3.1 road ERA), but he has also pitched very well so far in TY’s playoffs, with a 3-0 record and just 3 ER yielded in 22 IP. And that includes holding hot hitting LA Dodgers to just one run in 7 IP in decisive game 5 of that series in LA, and Dodgers hit lefties much better (at 5.1 RPG) than Tampa does. Hamels has just one career start against Rays, in which he did not pitch very well (5 ER in just 3.2 IP), but that was in 2006, his rookie year, when he was nowhere near as good as he is now, so we disregard that, but had to mention it.
Rays counter with a lefty ace of their own, Scott Kazmir, who has had good #s TY (13-8 with a 3.55 ERA), but not as good as Hamels. However, tonite he pitches in his best pitching “mode” (home/night) – he is 9-2 in home starts with a 3.3 ERA (1-1 in home playoff starts, with a good start vs White Sox and a bad one vs Boston), and 11-3 in night starts, with a 3.0 ERA. However, he has been inconsistent “down the stretch,” with 3 recent bad starts (9 ER in just 3 IP at home vs Boston on 9/15, 4 ER in 5 IP in loss at Detroit in key game on 9/25, and 5 ER in just 4 IP in ALCS game 2 “no decision” at home against Boston). On the other hand, he has pitched a few “gems” lately as well, such as his wasted 6 innings of shut out pitching in his last start (ALCS game 5 Tampa loss at Boston blown by Rays’ bullpen) and a 5-0 shut out of Minny Twins on Sept. 20 at home. Kaz has one start vs Philly in last 3 years, a 7-2 win at Philly in which he gave up just 2 ER in 5 IP. But that was also in 2006, against a Philly team not nearly as good as this one. And Philly has been devouring LHPs TY with a 33-22 record and average of 5.4 RPG scored against “southpaws,” including 15-10 away vs LHPs for 5.2 RPG and 12-6 away at night vs LHPs. Kaz is a power/flyball pitcher, against which Philly does OK (4.5 RPG vs both), although not as good as their overall average of 4.9 RPG.
Both bullpens have pretty equivalent numbers overall, with Tampa at 2.95 ERA at home and Philly a 3.25 away. But we believe Phils have a huge edge with closers, with “perfect” (45-0 TY in save opportunities) Brad Lidge in their pitching arsenal, and playing status (chronic back stiffness) of Tampa #1 closer Troy Percival still in doubt (did not pitch in either playoff series, and officially listed as “questionable” for World Series), and back-up Tampa closer Wheeler decent, but certainly no Lidge (and even a significant drop off from Percival, when Percy is healthy). Lidge also sports a 1.95 ERA, but it’s his microscopic 075 road ERA, in 37 IP that really gets our attention.
As far as team edges go, they cut both ways, but here are the ones we see:
Positives for Philly/negatives for Tampa
Philly is 47-39 away, including 37-25 away in night games, like this one.
The aforementioned discrepancy between the two teams vs LHPs (Philly very good, Tampa not so good, but not as bad at home)
In game one of a series, Phils have a big edge over Tampa, at 37-17 (incl 2-0 in playoffs) compared to Rays’ so-so 30-24 (and 1-1 in playoffs)
Positives for Tampa/negatives for Philly
Tampa’s great home record (now 61-26 after Rays’ 4-2 home playoff record in rounds one and two vs both “Sox teams”), as well as a good 19-7 home record in one run games (compared to Philly’s 12-14 road record in one run games)
Managing edge of Tampa’s Joe Madden over Philly’s Charlie Manuel (see our series preview article for more detail on that edge)
Tampa 12-6 TY vs NL, and Philly just 4-11 TY vs AL, but those games were all in May and June, when Philly was not playing nearly as well
The overall 60 % win percentage of AL over NL (80-53) in games played in last 24 World Series
