SCOTT SPREITZER
LOCK OF THE MONTH
Reason: I'm playing the Phillies on Wednesday night. I had the Giants on these pages yesterday afternoon, but they're in a tough spot in this one, as far as I'm concerned. Philadelphia was shutout on Tuesday by Matt Cain. But they have clobbered southpaws away from home this season and they expect to face Madison Bumgarner, who owns strong overall numbers, but he has not protected his own "turf" too well. Bumgarner, fantastic away from home, was just 1-3 in eight home starts, with a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .303 BAA. The Phillies are an extremely tough "out" in this situation, going 16-7 in road games against lefties, averaging 6.21 rpg. If they hit their average tonight, they ought to have no trouble at all with Joe Blanton backing those runs up. Blanton went 6-0 in his final 13 starts of the season, sporting a solid 3.24 ERA. The Phillies won each of his last seven starts and went 10-1 in his last 11, overall. The Giants aren't normally going to score a lot of runs, and I suspect they'll fall well short against Blanton tonight. The Phils are 22-5 in their last 27 road games. They are on a 4-0 run with Blanton as an underdog. And the Phils are on a 9-0 run in road games against lefthanders. I'm backing Philadelphia, whether it's Blanton as expected, or with Halladay, if Charlie Manuel makes the change. And by the way, Halladay owns strong numbers if he starts on short rest, as you probably already know. Either way, it's the Phillies for me on Wednesday night.
LOCK OF THE MONTH
Reason: I'm playing the Phillies on Wednesday night. I had the Giants on these pages yesterday afternoon, but they're in a tough spot in this one, as far as I'm concerned. Philadelphia was shutout on Tuesday by Matt Cain. But they have clobbered southpaws away from home this season and they expect to face Madison Bumgarner, who owns strong overall numbers, but he has not protected his own "turf" too well. Bumgarner, fantastic away from home, was just 1-3 in eight home starts, with a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .303 BAA. The Phillies are an extremely tough "out" in this situation, going 16-7 in road games against lefties, averaging 6.21 rpg. If they hit their average tonight, they ought to have no trouble at all with Joe Blanton backing those runs up. Blanton went 6-0 in his final 13 starts of the season, sporting a solid 3.24 ERA. The Phillies won each of his last seven starts and went 10-1 in his last 11, overall. The Giants aren't normally going to score a lot of runs, and I suspect they'll fall well short against Blanton tonight. The Phils are 22-5 in their last 27 road games. They are on a 4-0 run with Blanton as an underdog. And the Phils are on a 9-0 run in road games against lefthanders. I'm backing Philadelphia, whether it's Blanton as expected, or with Halladay, if Charlie Manuel makes the change. And by the way, Halladay owns strong numbers if he starts on short rest, as you probably already know. Either way, it's the Phillies for me on Wednesday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +1.64 over N.Y. YANKEES
A rematch of game-1. CC Sabathia is hoping to rebound from a poor outing while Texas hopes CJ Wilson can match his sterling performance to open the series. Sabathia has thrown 237 innings this year, he threw 230 last season and he threw 253 innings in ’08. That’s a lot of miles and with a dumpster-fire bullpen behind him he probably figures ne needs to be near flawless. Other signs of fatigue: Sabathia’s game one first-pitch-strike percentage was under 50%. His career FPS mark is around 60%, and it was a tad lower this year at 58%. In the disastrous Ranger first, he threw just two first-pitch strikes and seven first-pitch balls. He threw 34 pitches, only 14 of them strikes (41%), and walked three, including a four-pitch walk and a five-pitch walk. In three of Sabathia’s last four starts he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings. Sabathia is 30-years old and he’s about 40 pounds overweight and while he’s certainly capable of throwing a gem, all signs point to that not likely happening. There are more reason to play against the Yanks. Through the first four games, Texas hitters have a combined .926 OPS. Five players (Cruz, Hamilton, Molina, Murphy and Treanor) are over 1.000. The Yanks were at .616 OPS, with Cano at 1.633, SS Derek Jeter at .871, and no other regular over .652. Four different Rangers have homered, but only 2B Robinson Cano, with three, has any swats for the Yankees. C.J. Wilson faced 27 Yankees in game-1 and threw first-pitch strikes to 21 of them – a 62% rate nicely up from his customary 55%-ish level. On the road this year, Wilson has thrown 89.2 frames and allowed 63 hits for a BAA of .201 and a road ERA of 2.91. He was an AL top-ten starter in many categories including wins, ERA and complete games. So, while you can never count the Yanks out, the fact is they look like a beaten team and you would have to be somewhat out of your mind to lay –1.75 with them today. Say goodbye to the New York Yankees and say goodbye to free-agent Derek Jeter in a Yankee uniform too. Play: Texas +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO +1.01 over Atlanta
The Sabres started the season with six games in nine nights and they really haven’t had a lot of time to straighten things out. They last played in Chicago on Sunday and they’ve had a few days off to prepare for this one. On Monday, Lindy Ruff put this team through hell in practice. This report from that practice comes from John Vogl of the Buffalo News:
To say the Sabres skated Monday would be like saying a little water goes over Niagara Falls. The players skated their blades dull in HSBC Arena, with end-to-end rushes giving way to a parade of suicide drills. By the time the players had repeatedly skated goal line-blue line-goal line-red line-goal line-blue line-goal line-far goal line, it was impossible to spot a cheek that wasn't red -- unless the players were facedown at center ice, which is where several collapsed when the sprints were completed.
The Minnesota Wild went through a similar drill on Monday and came out and smoked the Canucks yesterday. The Sabres have one win but they dominated play against Chicago on Sunday and you can be damn sure they’ll be stoked and ready to go here. Furthermore, the Thrashers are coming home from a four-game trip with the final three games being on the West Coast. Incidentally, they won its last two in Anaheim and San Jose and could definitely be caught flat-footed here. The Sabres are a very decent team with a great work ethic and an outstanding goaltender. They’ve lost four in a row and win or lose here, you’re going to get a rock-solid, 60-minute effort from them and chances are great they snap that losing streak. Simply put, this is a great spot for the visitors. Play: Buffalo +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.64 over N.Y. YANKEES
A rematch of game-1. CC Sabathia is hoping to rebound from a poor outing while Texas hopes CJ Wilson can match his sterling performance to open the series. Sabathia has thrown 237 innings this year, he threw 230 last season and he threw 253 innings in ’08. That’s a lot of miles and with a dumpster-fire bullpen behind him he probably figures ne needs to be near flawless. Other signs of fatigue: Sabathia’s game one first-pitch-strike percentage was under 50%. His career FPS mark is around 60%, and it was a tad lower this year at 58%. In the disastrous Ranger first, he threw just two first-pitch strikes and seven first-pitch balls. He threw 34 pitches, only 14 of them strikes (41%), and walked three, including a four-pitch walk and a five-pitch walk. In three of Sabathia’s last four starts he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings. Sabathia is 30-years old and he’s about 40 pounds overweight and while he’s certainly capable of throwing a gem, all signs point to that not likely happening. There are more reason to play against the Yanks. Through the first four games, Texas hitters have a combined .926 OPS. Five players (Cruz, Hamilton, Molina, Murphy and Treanor) are over 1.000. The Yanks were at .616 OPS, with Cano at 1.633, SS Derek Jeter at .871, and no other regular over .652. Four different Rangers have homered, but only 2B Robinson Cano, with three, has any swats for the Yankees. C.J. Wilson faced 27 Yankees in game-1 and threw first-pitch strikes to 21 of them – a 62% rate nicely up from his customary 55%-ish level. On the road this year, Wilson has thrown 89.2 frames and allowed 63 hits for a BAA of .201 and a road ERA of 2.91. He was an AL top-ten starter in many categories including wins, ERA and complete games. So, while you can never count the Yanks out, the fact is they look like a beaten team and you would have to be somewhat out of your mind to lay –1.75 with them today. Say goodbye to the New York Yankees and say goodbye to free-agent Derek Jeter in a Yankee uniform too. Play: Texas +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO +1.01 over Atlanta
The Sabres started the season with six games in nine nights and they really haven’t had a lot of time to straighten things out. They last played in Chicago on Sunday and they’ve had a few days off to prepare for this one. On Monday, Lindy Ruff put this team through hell in practice. This report from that practice comes from John Vogl of the Buffalo News:
To say the Sabres skated Monday would be like saying a little water goes over Niagara Falls. The players skated their blades dull in HSBC Arena, with end-to-end rushes giving way to a parade of suicide drills. By the time the players had repeatedly skated goal line-blue line-goal line-red line-goal line-blue line-goal line-far goal line, it was impossible to spot a cheek that wasn't red -- unless the players were facedown at center ice, which is where several collapsed when the sprints were completed.
The Minnesota Wild went through a similar drill on Monday and came out and smoked the Canucks yesterday. The Sabres have one win but they dominated play against Chicago on Sunday and you can be damn sure they’ll be stoked and ready to go here. Furthermore, the Thrashers are coming home from a four-game trip with the final three games being on the West Coast. Incidentally, they won its last two in Anaheim and San Jose and could definitely be caught flat-footed here. The Sabres are a very decent team with a great work ethic and an outstanding goaltender. They’ve lost four in a row and win or lose here, you’re going to get a rock-solid, 60-minute effort from them and chances are great they snap that losing streak. Simply put, this is a great spot for the visitors. Play: Buffalo +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
BIG AL
BIG AL's RED-HOT MLB 3-PLAY PACKAGE
Our Selection: Yankees Opponent: Rangers Line: -172
Analysis: At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. The Yankees face a must-win situation at home this afternoon, and there is nobody they would rather have on the mound than the man they're putting out there. Lefthanded ace and #1 starter CC Sabathia has been a warrior for this team all season, and he shines when pitching at home in the Bronx (11-2 with a 3.00 ERA), so there is a very good chance that he will deliver a much-needed win today to keep his team alive. Sabathia's also at his best in the daytime, as his ERA is 2.67 and his daytime WHIP is a sparling 0.95. CJ Wilson had a 4.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP at Yankee Stadium this year, and we'll take New York to stave off elimination on Wednesday.
Our Selection: Yankees/Rangers 'under' Line: 8.5
Analysis: At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees 'under' the total. The two righthanded #4 starters for the Yankees and Rangers pitched a bit like #4 starters last night in a game that the Rangers won and easily went 'over' the total with 13 runs. Today, we are back to the #1 starter for the Yankees in lefthander CC Sabathia, and #2 starter for the Rangers in lefthander CJ Wilson in what is obviously a must-win situation for New York. Sabathia got into trouble early in game one, but then settled down later although the Yanks still lost that one on the road. He's back home tonight in the Bronx, a place where he did his best work during the regular season. But the crafty Wilson cannot be taken lightly either as he can go deep into this game and seems to always have hitters off-balance with his southpaw delivery. Wilson is proving in the post-season that his first regular season as a full-time starter was no fluke as he is now 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his combined first two starts in the ALDS and ALCS. The Yanks' offense received what could be a devastating blow on Tuesday night when first baseman Mark Teixeira left the game with a hamstring injury that ended his 2010 season. Take the 'under.'
Our Selection: Giants/Phillies 'under' Line: 8
Analysis: At 7:55 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants 'under' the total. Some are calling the starting pitching staffs for the four teams that are left the best they've seen in 20+ years and you can argue about exactly how they would rank from top to bottom, but almost anyone would say that the Phillies and Giants rotations are the top two and that can be backed up by looking at the team ERAs through the division series as the Phillies are first at 1.87 (through their first six playoff games) while the Giants are third at 2.11 (through their seven post-season contests). The Braves - no longer alive - are ranked ahead of the Giants. The proof is in the pudding as they say, and when you look at tonight's scheduled starters, who are both #4 starters for their teams, you see just how deep these staffs are. Both righthander Joe Blanton and lefthander Madison Bumgarner could easily be #3 starters on just about any other team in baseball, and probably #1 or 2 on a few as well. Blanton finished up the season strong, with a 2-0 record and 2.81 ERA in five August starts followed by a 3-0 record and 3.19 ERA in six September starts. Bumgarner is a 20-year-old rookie who posted a winning record and 3.06 ERA in his second season in the Majors and he pitched like a grizzled veteran in many of his starts. Run support was a bit of an issue for Bumgarner late in the season as he only managed to receive more than four runs of support in one of his five September starts, while in his last three starts at home, the Giants only scored a total of nine runs. Take the 'under.'
BIG AL's RED-HOT MLB 3-PLAY PACKAGE
Our Selection: Yankees Opponent: Rangers Line: -172
Analysis: At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Texas Rangers. The Yankees face a must-win situation at home this afternoon, and there is nobody they would rather have on the mound than the man they're putting out there. Lefthanded ace and #1 starter CC Sabathia has been a warrior for this team all season, and he shines when pitching at home in the Bronx (11-2 with a 3.00 ERA), so there is a very good chance that he will deliver a much-needed win today to keep his team alive. Sabathia's also at his best in the daytime, as his ERA is 2.67 and his daytime WHIP is a sparling 0.95. CJ Wilson had a 4.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP at Yankee Stadium this year, and we'll take New York to stave off elimination on Wednesday.
Our Selection: Yankees/Rangers 'under' Line: 8.5
Analysis: At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees 'under' the total. The two righthanded #4 starters for the Yankees and Rangers pitched a bit like #4 starters last night in a game that the Rangers won and easily went 'over' the total with 13 runs. Today, we are back to the #1 starter for the Yankees in lefthander CC Sabathia, and #2 starter for the Rangers in lefthander CJ Wilson in what is obviously a must-win situation for New York. Sabathia got into trouble early in game one, but then settled down later although the Yanks still lost that one on the road. He's back home tonight in the Bronx, a place where he did his best work during the regular season. But the crafty Wilson cannot be taken lightly either as he can go deep into this game and seems to always have hitters off-balance with his southpaw delivery. Wilson is proving in the post-season that his first regular season as a full-time starter was no fluke as he is now 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his combined first two starts in the ALDS and ALCS. The Yanks' offense received what could be a devastating blow on Tuesday night when first baseman Mark Teixeira left the game with a hamstring injury that ended his 2010 season. Take the 'under.'
Our Selection: Giants/Phillies 'under' Line: 8
Analysis: At 7:55 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants 'under' the total. Some are calling the starting pitching staffs for the four teams that are left the best they've seen in 20+ years and you can argue about exactly how they would rank from top to bottom, but almost anyone would say that the Phillies and Giants rotations are the top two and that can be backed up by looking at the team ERAs through the division series as the Phillies are first at 1.87 (through their first six playoff games) while the Giants are third at 2.11 (through their seven post-season contests). The Braves - no longer alive - are ranked ahead of the Giants. The proof is in the pudding as they say, and when you look at tonight's scheduled starters, who are both #4 starters for their teams, you see just how deep these staffs are. Both righthander Joe Blanton and lefthander Madison Bumgarner could easily be #3 starters on just about any other team in baseball, and probably #1 or 2 on a few as well. Blanton finished up the season strong, with a 2-0 record and 2.81 ERA in five August starts followed by a 3-0 record and 3.19 ERA in six September starts. Bumgarner is a 20-year-old rookie who posted a winning record and 3.06 ERA in his second season in the Majors and he pitched like a grizzled veteran in many of his starts. Run support was a bit of an issue for Bumgarner late in the season as he only managed to receive more than four runs of support in one of his five September starts, while in his last three starts at home, the Giants only scored a total of nine runs. Take the 'under.'
