The FEZ | NBA Sides - Wednesday, Jan 27 2016 10:35PM
#516 GSW -15.5(-110) Greek vs 515 DAL triple-dime bet
Analysis: NBA 3 star Play Of The Week!
The initial handicap of this game might be "Golden State in a letdown spot after the big win vs. the Spurs".
However, it's actually a GOOD spot for Golden State, they were home Friday vs. Indy, and Sunday vs. the Spurs, and their next game isn't until Saturday @Philly.......so NO REASON to expect a letup here. Further, they got BURIED BIG @Dallas (with Curry sitting) so it's a payback game.
Dallas played a tough physical game @Staples that just ended. They won 92-90. This is their 3rd game in 4 nights, and they have a game back home Friday. I HAVE to believe Carlisle is going to mail this game in, resting starters, o –r just not giving them much time. Dallas is making the playoffs......they KNOW they won't win this game, AND they have already beaten Golden State this year, so no reason to try to pull of the improbable/impossible here. Keep everyone healthy, mail this one in, and get ready for Brooklyn Friday back home in Big D.
Pick Made: Jan 26 2016 10:46PM PST
#516 GSW -15.5(-110) Greek vs 515 DAL triple-dime bet
Analysis: NBA 3 star Play Of The Week!
The initial handicap of this game might be "Golden State in a letdown spot after the big win vs. the Spurs".
However, it's actually a GOOD spot for Golden State, they were home Friday vs. Indy, and Sunday vs. the Spurs, and their next game isn't until Saturday @Philly.......so NO REASON to expect a letup here. Further, they got BURIED BIG @Dallas (with Curry sitting) so it's a payback game.
Dallas played a tough physical game @Staples that just ended. They won 92-90. This is their 3rd game in 4 nights, and they have a game back home Friday. I HAVE to believe Carlisle is going to mail this game in, resting starters, o –r just not giving them much time. Dallas is making the playoffs......they KNOW they won't win this game, AND they have already beaten Golden State this year, so no reason to try to pull of the improbable/impossible here. Keep everyone healthy, mail this one in, and get ready for Brooklyn Friday back home in Big D.
Pick Made: Jan 26 2016 10:46PM PST
Dr. Bob
Opinion – SAN ANTONIO (-9 ½) over Houston
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 508
San Antonio was humiliated by the Warriors on Monday night and I expect a good performance from the Spurs tonight. San Antonio is 65-30-3 ATS in home games after losing by more than 10 points in coach Gregg Popovich’s tenure as coach, including 44-12-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. There’s no value here, as my ratings favor San Antonio by 10 with Tim Duncan out again and with Dwight Howard expected to suit up for the Rockets, but I’ll lean with the Spurs based on their history of bouncing back.
Opinion – Louisville (-10) over VIRGINIA TECH
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 541
Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games while Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. However, a lot of the Cardinals’ recent ATS slump and the Hokies’ ATS surge is due to variance (Louisville has made just 28.9% of their 3-pointers (35% for the season) in their last 7 games). My ratings favor Louisville by 11 points and my match up model favors the Cardinals by 15 points in this game. The Cardinals should dominate the glass and Virginia Tech, who takes a much higher than normal amount of their shots in the paint, will have a tough time scoring against a Louisville defense that ranks #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal defense. I’ll lean with Louisville at -10 or less.
Opinion - Northern Iowa (-14) over BRADLEY
06:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 559
Bradley is the worst offensive team in the nation and the Braves have lost 6 of their 8 conference games by 19 points or more, including a 44-80 loss at Northern Iowa. Despite winning so easily in the first meeting I don’t see Northern Iowa taking this game for granted given the Panthers’ ugly 4 game losing streak. It’s rare to have a team on a long losing streak be installed as a double-digit road favorite but historically such teams are good bets and Northern Iowa applies to an 18-4 ATS situation based on that premise (I said it was rare so not much of a sample size). My ratings favor the Panthers by 16 ½ points in this game so there is some line value and I’ll lean with Northern Iowa at -14 points or less and I’d take Northern Iowa in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.
Opinion – 1st Quarter play: GOLDEN STATE (-6 ½) over Dallas
07:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 516
Dallas beat Golden State in the first game that Steph Curry missed this season and I expect Golden State to come out fired up to atone for that defeat. I actually like the Warriors in general in this game, as Dallas isn’t as good with Dirk Nowitzki taking the night off after a hard fought game in Los Angeles last night. My ratings favor the Warriors by 19 ½ points with Nowitzki out but the Warriors tend to let big leads dissipate when the starters sit late in games, which is why I like the 1st quarter play here. The Warriors outscore their opponents by an average of 6.1 points in the 1st quarter in the 43 games that Steph Curry has played and Curry is playing the entire 1st quarter recently before taking a rest to begin the 2nd quarter. Golden State has outscored their opponents by 22.6 points per 48 minutes when Curry is on the court this season and I’d favor GSW by 7 ½ points in the 1st quarter tonight, which is enough value for a profitable play given the revenge motive for the Warriors.
Opinion – SAN ANTONIO (-9 ½) over Houston
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 508
San Antonio was humiliated by the Warriors on Monday night and I expect a good performance from the Spurs tonight. San Antonio is 65-30-3 ATS in home games after losing by more than 10 points in coach Gregg Popovich’s tenure as coach, including 44-12-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. There’s no value here, as my ratings favor San Antonio by 10 with Tim Duncan out again and with Dwight Howard expected to suit up for the Rockets, but I’ll lean with the Spurs based on their history of bouncing back.
Opinion – Louisville (-10) over VIRGINIA TECH
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 541
Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games while Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. However, a lot of the Cardinals’ recent ATS slump and the Hokies’ ATS surge is due to variance (Louisville has made just 28.9% of their 3-pointers (35% for the season) in their last 7 games). My ratings favor Louisville by 11 points and my match up model favors the Cardinals by 15 points in this game. The Cardinals should dominate the glass and Virginia Tech, who takes a much higher than normal amount of their shots in the paint, will have a tough time scoring against a Louisville defense that ranks #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal defense. I’ll lean with Louisville at -10 or less.
Opinion - Northern Iowa (-14) over BRADLEY
06:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 559
Bradley is the worst offensive team in the nation and the Braves have lost 6 of their 8 conference games by 19 points or more, including a 44-80 loss at Northern Iowa. Despite winning so easily in the first meeting I don’t see Northern Iowa taking this game for granted given the Panthers’ ugly 4 game losing streak. It’s rare to have a team on a long losing streak be installed as a double-digit road favorite but historically such teams are good bets and Northern Iowa applies to an 18-4 ATS situation based on that premise (I said it was rare so not much of a sample size). My ratings favor the Panthers by 16 ½ points in this game so there is some line value and I’ll lean with Northern Iowa at -14 points or less and I’d take Northern Iowa in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.
Opinion – 1st Quarter play: GOLDEN STATE (-6 ½) over Dallas
07:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 516
Dallas beat Golden State in the first game that Steph Curry missed this season and I expect Golden State to come out fired up to atone for that defeat. I actually like the Warriors in general in this game, as Dallas isn’t as good with Dirk Nowitzki taking the night off after a hard fought game in Los Angeles last night. My ratings favor the Warriors by 19 ½ points with Nowitzki out but the Warriors tend to let big leads dissipate when the starters sit late in games, which is why I like the 1st quarter play here. The Warriors outscore their opponents by an average of 6.1 points in the 1st quarter in the 43 games that Steph Curry has played and Curry is playing the entire 1st quarter recently before taking a rest to begin the 2nd quarter. Golden State has outscored their opponents by 22.6 points per 48 minutes when Curry is on the court this season and I’d favor GSW by 7 ½ points in the 1st quarter tonight, which is enough value for a profitable play given the revenge motive for the Warriors.
J.R STEVENS SMOOTH44
NBA
(503) Denver +10
(509) LA Clippers +5
NCAA
(526) Arkansas +4
(529) Pittsburgh +2
(543) Georgia Tech +4.5
(547) San Jose State +12.5
(552) Oklahoma State +4
(557) Stanford +7.5
(567) California +7
(571) Austin Peay +8
*Larger than normal card but great systems backing us tonight.
Buy half point if necessary.
NBA
(503) Denver +10
(509) LA Clippers +5
NCAA
(526) Arkansas +4
(529) Pittsburgh +2
(543) Georgia Tech +4.5
(547) San Jose State +12.5
(552) Oklahoma State +4
(557) Stanford +7.5
(567) California +7
(571) Austin Peay +8
*Larger than normal card but great systems backing us tonight.
Buy half point if necessary.
