FREDDY WILLS
New Mexico -1 BODOG(8** POD)
BYU is very beatable on the road against a team like New Mexico that has faced a stronger strength of schedule and has had to deal with similar uptempo teams.
BYU has one loss this year and it was a 10 point loss on the road to Utah State a team out of the WAC a team that I think is very beatable compared to what they were a year ago. BYU usually gets things done by getting to the FT line and being the #1 FT shooting team in the nation. To me I love that about them considering I've been beat by FTs many times this year, but New Mexico is a good FT shooting team in their own right and it's mainly due to the fact that they are getting their 9.4 more times than opponents at home. BYU is getting to the FT line 6.3 times less than opponents this year. The game will most likely be decided from the line here tonight.
I believe New Mexico can get to the line at home as has been the case all year at home whether it's the friendlier ref or the intensity they come to the lane when they are at home. Either one works for me. New Mexico also has the defense that can stop BYU it's not great by any means but they are allowing opponents just 39.5% from the field when they are at home. BYU is perfect in conference play, but their weak schedule will hit them in the mouth tonight. They barely beat San Diego State and UNLV the two teams New Mexico lost to. What does that mean? It means that New Mexico will have a shot in the end to win this game and I believe they will come through.
New Mexico STate is 7-3 ATS on 3 days rest or more while BYU stands in at 3-5 ATS this year. New Mexico is 25-15-1 in their last 51 home games ATS. I really like the overall length of this New Mexico team with 6'8, 6'6 and 6'7 and 6'5 starters while BYU has good length too I don't know who will match up against New Mexicos best player in Hobson who is averaging 15.3 ppg 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists. Fredette from BYU has certainly heated up at the right time, but look for Hobson or Martinez to give him troubles at home tonight