Ferringo for Wednesday. Went 10-1 yesterday if you include his "leans".
LOTS OF ACTION TODAY. BUT THIS IS A REALLY GREAT CARD. I CAN TELL YOU THAT I'VE RESEARCHED ALL OF THESE GAMES FOR HOURS - MANY, MANY HOURS - AND I FEEL GREAT ABOUT THE SITUATIONS. I KNOW IT SEEMS LIKE A LOT, BUT I ALWAYS GRADE MY PICKS LOWER TO ACCOMMODATE THE GREATER VOLUME OF PLAYS (even though I like all of the games in my teasers as individual plays as well!). I FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUR SPOTS, AND I EVEN MIXED IN A COUPLE EXTRA TEASERS TO GET OUR NUMBER OF PLAYS DOWN EVEN MORE. GOOD LUCK.
2-Unit Play. Take #581 Wisconsin (-2.5) over Iowa (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
Iowa is not a bad team, they just don't hold up very well against the top tier in the Big 10. Wisconsin is coming off back-to-back losses and I trust that Bo Ryan is going to right the ship. It does not help Iowa's cause that they will be playing without Cyrus Tate, one of their top inside presences, again today. The Badgers just do things a little bit better than Iowa does and the Hawkeyes should be getting double what they are. Wisconsin won at Michigan and gave Marquette all they could handle on the road, so the Badgers have shown that they can play away from home. They get back in the win column here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #593 Clemson (+14) over North Carolina (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
Once again, North Carolina is laying too many points. You just can't give this large of a spread to a team that shoots the ball and has as good of guard play as the Tigers do. Yes, they have lost 53 straight at North Carolina. And no, I don't think they get the win tonight. But both of these teams played Wake Forest tight while losing, so I don't see why this line is not around 8.0. And, honestly, if it were around 8.0 or 9.0 I would still give the Tigers a look. Clemson has win at Miami, at Illinois, and at South Carolina. Those are all teams that will play in postseason tournaments, and Clemson beat them on their home floor. They are a little devalued because of an 0-4 ATS slide, but I think that Rivers and Oglesby will get enough open looks to do some damage and keep this one close.
2-Unit Play. Take #588 Oklahoma State (-2) over Missouri (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
If Missouri can get waxed at Nebraska then they can get run tonight in Stillwater. Missouri just doesn't not play with as much intensity on the road and Ok. State is fantastic on their home court. Also, as we get later in the year it's really hard for Missouri's press to continue to be effective. Especially against teams like Ok. State that have such good guard play. That's exactly what killed Mizzou on the road at Nebraska and that's what will get them here. On top of the fact that they are a poor road team and that this is an awful matchup for them, Missouri will again be without leading scorer Leo Lyons who has once again run into legal troubles. All in all this spot is very conducive to a blowout.
2-Unit Play. Take #540 Northeastern (-4) over George Mason (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
The home team has wrecked shop in this series and these games have not even been close. The home team is 6-0 in the last three years in this series with the average win margin over 18 points per game. None of those six games were decided by less than 11 points and several of them were by over 20. George Mason has been playing really good basketball this year. But I think they've been playing a bit over their heads. This game is actually set up in a Game of the Week situation because of the way it grades out, but I've lowered the Unit rating simply out of respect for the Mason program and their recent 5-2 ATS run. But I like this spot for the Huskies. I think they are the better, more experienced team and after a terrible second half at Hofstra I think they are ready to jump out and hammer the Patriots. The line on this game moved two full points despite nearly 70 percent of the action going on Mason. I think this one is a romp.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #550 Buffalo (-3) over Kent State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
Kent State is really missing Jim Christian right about now. their former coach is working wonders at TCU and the Golden Flashes really don't look to be as confident a team. They will need to be tonight if they don't want to get run, because Buffalo is a buzzsaw at home. This Bulls team has been playing really good basketball this year and they have a backcourt that can match up well with Kent State. The Flashes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games and Buffalo is 7-1 ATS as a favorite.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #602 San Diego State (-5) over New Mexico (10:30 p.m., Wed., Jan. 21)
SDSU is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings, winning by an average of six points. Home court has been money in MWC play and favorites have been tearing it up on The Mountain. Home teams are 14-5 SU in MWC play, with Colorado State and Air Force the only teams that have lost on their own court. We’re catching New Mexico off their best game of the year, a 19-point win over BYU, and SDSU is coming off a tough loss at Wyoming last week without Lorrenzo Wade. Wade is back and the Aztecs run a similar style to the UTEP team that floored the Lobos in New Mexico. I think SDSU gets it done in this one, pulling away late for a quality win.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #559 Florida State (+7.5) over Miami (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
Note: Bump to a 2-Unit Play.
Miami is in serious trouble without Eddie Rios. The Hurricane guards not named "McClinton" are just awful and they will be outplayed tonight by a strong FSU backcourt. Miami has been up and down and all over the place, but the bottom line is that they is that if we break down their last few games you can see obvious cracks. They got wasted by UNC, which is forgiveable, and they actually played well in that one. But before that they barely beat Maryland at home - and Maryland isn't very good - and they won against a Boston College team that frankly isn't very good. Prior to that their "blowout" win over Florida Atlantic was actually a five-point game late in the second half (FAU was without its top scorer in that one as well) before a technical foul helped them run away. So all in all, Miami is not beating inferior opponents convincingly. And it all comes back to shoddy guard play. FSU's only losses in the last two months were an eight-point loss to Duke and an eight-point loss to Pitt. Oh yeah, those two teams were ranked 1-2 just a few days ago. Florida State wins this one outright.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #580 LSU (-6) over Mississippi State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
Your guess is as good as mine as to which teams are going to show up in any given SEC game. But the bottom line is this: SEC favorites are 14-4-1 ATS since the start of conference play, and most of the games have not even been close. This has been a big-time blowout conference, and a stunning 15 of those 19 league games have been decided by nine points or less. Teams are just getting destroyed in this league, and given the home and away splits of these two schools there's no reason not to expect more of the same. LSU is coming out of a stretch in which it played three of four on the road, so they are still a bit undervalued. Their one home game in that time was a 17-point win over South Carolina. Mississippi State has not been a strong road team, outside of a win at Arkansas. They barely beat Nicholls State (by 6) and they lost by 12 at Cincinnati. That's it. That is their road experience over the last two months. And before that it was two neutral court losses to Washington State and Texas Tech, both of which suck. The Tigers simply play with much more confidence at home and they get it done with another blowout tonight. And if they can get James Varnado in foul trouble early this one will be over quick.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #573 UTEP (+6) over UAB (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21)
UAB can win this game, and they play much better at home. But this is a few too many points to lay. UTEP is a very good team and they have some quality road wins this year. The Blazers are coming off a tough rivalry loss at Memphis, and the bottom line is that they only go about seven-deep. Fatigue and emotional factors are going to hit this team harder than most. UAB went off on Lafayette on Monday so this is their third game in five days and two of the contests have been against two of the best teams in CUSA. I think UTEP makes it a back-and-forth affair and that this is a one-possession game in the last few minutes.
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #556 LaSalle (-6) over Penn (7 p.m.) AND Take #554 Richmond (+8) over Rhode Island (7 p.m.)
Penn is absolutely awful and LaSalle is going to beat them by 20 tonight. Period. Richmond is the definition of a live home dog, and now that we've bumped this spread up to 8.0 I love the spot. Those are two of the best shooting teams in the country, but Richmond is off the chain playing at home. With less than four minutes to play, Richmond was only down 4 to Syracuse and 4 to Wake Forest - two Top 10 teams - this year. Of their eight losses, only two of them were by more than seven points. They play teams tight and I think they win this game outright against Rhode Island. The Rams are 0-6 SU in their last six trips to Richmond.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #586 Oklahoma (-8) over Nebraska (9 p.m.) AND Take #542 Rutgers (+15) over Louisville (7 p.m.)
Oklahoma DOMINATES people in Norman and Nebraska has been terrible on the road for the past several years. Nebraska is 8-23 ATS away from home and I think OU easily covers the normal 13-point spread. Louisville is in a perfect letdown situation, going on the road after two big home wins, the last against the No. 1 team in the country. They also have a big game at Syracuse this Sunday so I can see them looking past Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have had a week off to regroup, but this team is fearless. They have gone toe-to-toe with Syracuse, Marquette, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and North Carolina in the last three weeks! They will have no fear against the Cardinals, who do not shoot the ball well at all. I think Rutgers makes a run at this tonight and I don't see them getting waxed by 17 or 19 points.
I also have strong leans on Charleston, Auburn (I love Auburn today), Baylor, Villanova and Rice (I also love Rice), Southern Illinois and Southern Miss. I swear to you, my leans have been RIDICULOUS over the last month, and I would venture to say that I'm hitting 70 percent of them. That is no joke. I know for a fact I'm 10-5 in my last 15, and that was with a "down" Saturday. Anyway, I really suggest getting on these games if you don't mind the extra action. I am CERTAIN that those five leans alone will go 4-3, at least. Bank it.
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