Steve Merril
Wednesday, Jan. 20
NBA
(3% play) DETROIT +3.5 (at Houston) - 8:05 pm ET #511
Detroit is just 1-3 SU during their last four games, but the opponents they played had a lot to do with that losing record; the Pistons lost to the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Bulls. But they also beat the Warriors in between, and the Memphis loss came on a buzzer beater, so the 1-3 record looks worse than it actually is. Detroit is 22-19 SU on the season, and they already beat Houston 116-105 earlier this season. The Pistons’ offense is in good current form as they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field over their last five games. Detroit holds a significant defensive edge in this game as well. The Pistons are holding opponents to 99.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land. To compare, the Rockets are allowing 105.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.
Houston returns home off back-to-back games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers. The Rockets split those games with their loss being a 140-132 defeat in overtime to the Clippers. Houston trailed that game by 14 points going into the fourth quarter before rallying back to tie the game. But that game took a toll on Houston, and they won’t have much energy left for tonight’s game. The Rockets may also be without point guard Patrick Beverley who re-injured his ankle against the Clippers. He missed shootaround this morning, and most reports say he will miss this game. Houston’s defense is giving up 104.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home this season. Detroit’s offense matches-up extremely well against Houston’s defense, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Wednesday night.
Play PISTONS (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OVER 209.5 (Hawks/Trail Blazers) - 10:35 pm ET (ESPN) #521
Atlanta and Portland match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game. These two teams have gone Over the total in three straight meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight. In their earlier season meeting, the Hawks and Trail Blazers combined to score 203 points despite terrible shooting. The teams combined to take 158 shots from the field, including 53 attempts from three-point land. Atlanta shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field, but just 31% (9-29) from three-point land. The Hawks scored a lot of easy baskets with 40 of their total points coming inside the paint. Atlanta’s offense comes into this game in good current form as they’ve averaged 103.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.
Portland shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Atlanta. The Trail Blazers hit just 20.8% (5-24) from beyond the arc, and they added just 16 points from the free-throw line. Portland also scored a lot of easy baskets as 50 of their total points came from inside the paint. The Trail Blazers’ offense is in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 105.4 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. These two teams scored 203 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts. With normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Hawks and Trail Blazers on Wednesday night.
Play OVER (Hawks/Trail Blazers) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) SETON HALL +7.5 (vs. Villanova) - 9:00 pm ET (CBSSN) #564
Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a 16-2 SU record. The Wildcats have been unable to beat Seton Hall by margin over the last few meetings as three of the last four meetings have been decided by single digits. Villanova beat Seton Hall 72-63 on January 6th; that game was close throughout and we expect tonight’s game to play out the same way. Villanova was held to just 36.2% (21-58) shooting from the field and 18.2% (4-22) from three-point land. The Wildcats won the game at the free throw line where they were +11 points. But that game was on their home floor where they get the benefit of the whistle. That won’t be the case tonight with the rematch on Seton Hall’s home court.
Seton Hall returns home off an 81-72 win at Providence as 6-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon. The Pirates are now home underdogs, and teams in this situation are normally strong pointspread propositions. Seton Hall also lost their previous home game, so that makes this situation even stronger, especially in this pointspread range. The Pirates play on a very strong home court where they are 8-1 SU this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game. Seton Hall’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field. The Pirates’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 73.7 points per game. Seton Hall matches-up well with Villanova, so we’ll back the Pirates on Wednesday night.
Play SETON HALL (+) as a 3% play.