-30.8 College
-70.3 NBA
4* #729 ST. JOHN’S over CONNECTICUT
Last Wednesday we turned a 4* ticket with Pittsburgh against Connecticut on this court, with both Play On and Play Against elements to the handicap. This is more of the same. Once again we have a limited UConn team being asked to play at a higher level than the Huskies are capable of right now, and we get a prototype “Tough Out” to serve our purposes on the other side.Visions of past Connecticut teams bring reminders of deep and talented rosters that pushed the tempo and used their talent to wear the opposition down. This is not that kind of team. This year’s Huskies are precariously short of depth, with only seven players going more than 10 minutes per game, and key cogs Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson and Kemba Walker are all at 33 minutes or more. Because of that the defense can not be extended, with leads to a rarity for a Jim Calhoun team in which his team has significantly more TO’s than they have forced, and the fact that the opposition has as many assists as TO’s has to be very unsettling. It also means having to run a lot of half-court offensive sets, instead of getting easy baskets in transition, and those sets have never been a strength. Now they also lose Calhoun’s leadership on the sidelines, and while George Blaney is an experienced replacement, this takes even more spark away. It is not easy for this group to build margins, and their weak FT shooting does not extend them in the latter stages.St. John’s brings that depth that UConn lacks, and with Anthony Mason Jr. and Justin Burrell healthy again Norm Roberts can have his team attack tenaciously for the full 40 minutes – they have had back-to-back games in which 11 different players had at least 10 minutes of court time. They bring the athleticism and determination to play solid defense and are also hitting the boards hard, which means they are rarely going to be out of a game, and that has been the case – they have already picked up road dog covers at Louisville and Georgetown in Big East play, and got the money at Duke and won outright vs. Temple in the Palestra in key non-conference challenges. For once it can be the underdog wearing the favorite down, as they take this one right to the final stages with a chance to win outright.
6* #739 JAMES MADISON over DREXEL
Nothing comes easily for Drexel, a team that plays with tenacity but lacks top-level talent. But the fact that the Dragons are 4-3 in C.A.A. play has them in the role of a solid favorite here, and when we recognize the roll of the dice that has been needed for that 4-3 mark it shows us how good the value is to back an underdog that should be in the game to the final possession. When playing Drexel, it is hard not to be, and with this underdog having the tools to win outright we would not consider this an “upset” in any way.Consider this – in those seven conference games the Dragons have shot awful counts of 39.6 from the field, 26.9 beyond the arc, and 65.1 at the FT line. The opposition has shot better in every category (41.8, 36.0 and 73.3). Drexel opponents also have more rebounds, more assists, more steals and fewer turnovers. Turning that into a 4-3 requires a lot of favorable bounces, and in truth some of that is the grit of Bruiser Flint’s team – there have been three league games decided by three points or less, and they gutted out wins in all three. Those are the type of wins they are going to have to get, with that lack of punch, and experience (true FR Derrick Thomas and Daryl McCoy have started all seven C.A.A. games; RS FR Chris Fouch is fourth in scoring), making it difficult to ever generate much breathing room, and that awful FT shooting further making margins difficult.James Madison has the go-to players to take this right to the final buzzer. Julius Wells has gone from C.A.A. Rookie of the Year (11.6 ppg and 5.5 rpg) to a candidate for Player of the Year, scoring 20.0 and grabbing 4.9 caroms in C.A.A. games, and 6-10/260 Denzel Bowles has become the biggest inside force in the league, with tallies of 21.0 and 8.6 in the five conference games he has played. With savvy Pierre Curits (35 assists vs. 12 TO’s in the C.A.A.) running the show they will also be patient against a tough Drexel defense. The Dukes were 5-2 ATS as league road dogs in Matt Brady’s first season at the helm LY, and 2-0 in that role with Bowles on the court this season. They can easily add another here in a game that has been priced in entirely the wrong range.
4* #805 COLORADO over OKLAHOMA STATE
In the third year of Jeff Bzdelik’s system, and with some legit talent to make it go, the Colorado offense has been something special to open Big 12 play. It is just that no one has noticed, and that means outstanding value here to back a Buffalo team that can be in this game to the final possession.The luck of the draw has had Colorado up against three of the Big 12’s best defenses to open the league campaign, Texas, Kansas State and Baylor. Only Kansas is better. Yet the Buffaloes broke those teams down to the tune of 81.7 points per game, and they shot at least 50 percent each time. They could only manage a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS through the cycle because they were over-matched badly on the boards, but now they not only step way down in class against this Oklahoma State defense, but also take on a front-court that does not overmatch them in terms of size. It means prime upset potential, as a team with excellent offensive balance (Cory Higgins is averaging 21.0 in Big 12 play, Marcus Relphorde 19.7 and Alec Burks 17.0), and precision (only 37 TO’s through 120 floor minutes against those tough defenses) make for a prime “Tough Out” candidate.We turned a 4* ticket against Oklahoma State with Baylor on Saturday, noting how the lack of size and depth for the Cowboys would make the Big 12 road a long and tough journey, and in that defeat they allowed 52.5 percent shooting, and were out-rebounded 39-24. Matthew Pilgrim was the only player off the bench that saw at least 10 minutes of action. What is basically a four guard/one forward lineup is going to have to have the dice roll perfectly if they are going to get margins, with the lack of interior defense, rebounding and depth making this the wrong role for them to be in
4* #726 L.A. CLIPPERS/CHICAGO Under
When the Clippers have all hands on deck they have a genuine identity, and if has been an effective one. It simply is not one that the markets are seeing. They have two of the better defenders in the league at their positions in Marcus Canby and Eric Gordon, and when Chris Kaman is healthy he provides both an interior scoring threat, and another defensive presence around the basket. So when Mike Dunleavy has his full rotation we find a team that slows to a half-court tempo and actually wins games. Having all hands on deck has been the problem, but we can show directly how the markets have not been able to get the correct handle – how about a 16-5 run to the Under in home games with Kaman in the lineup? And you can put an * next to one of the Over’s, an easy blowout of New Jersey on Monday in which Los Angeles backed off late, allowing the Nets to score 29 points in the fourth quarter.We can say similar things about the Bulls, who are 6-2-1 to the Under when Tyrus Thomas is on the court, a key part of their defensive rotations. But that is also not reflected in this Total, and in a night in which the visitors bring a lot of health issues to the table we do not expect to see a lot of pace. A flu virus has impacted several members of the team, with John Salmons remaining in a hospital in Oakland instead of traveling with them to Los Angeles yesterday (he is expected to join the team later today, but is classified as “doubtful”), and Kirk Hinrich still a question mark after not playing on Monday. He did take part in practice yesterday, but is unlikely to have his full legs beneath him.Neither team is looking to push the pace here, and both have been more solid on defense than the markets are giving credit for. That brings outstandiong value to an Under call for this setting
