STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/15/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 1/15/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Wednesday's Notebook
•UMass is 14-1, winning last four games, all by 8 or less points- in their last game, they nipped St. Bonaventure 73-68 after being down 13 with 9:06 left. The Minutemen won both its true road games by 12, at Eastern Michigan/Ohio. George Mason lost three in row, seven of last nine games; three of their last four losses were by 5 or less points. A-13 favorites are 6-1 against spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
•Clemson is coming off huge win over Duke; Tigers are 3-5 in last eight games with Virginia Tech, losing last three visits to Blacksburg by 11-2-8 points. Clemson is 1-2 in true road games, with three games decided by total of 10 points- they lost at Arkansas/Auburn. Hokies are 1-4 in last five games, losing last two home games by 20-3. ACC home underdogs are 4-3 if getting less than six points.
•Georgetown won nine of last eleven games, is 3-1 in Big East, but they played lower part of league so far; Hoyas are 1-2 in true its road games, getting waxed at Kansas/Providence, winning in overtime at Butler. Xavier is 3-1 in league, 3-0 at home; they lost last game by 6 at Creighton, a solid showing. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-1 versus spread.
•Maryland got crushed 85-61 on national TV Sunday by Florida State, with an ESPN analyst ripping coach Mark Turgeon. Terrapins split first four ACC games, but lost last two by 20-24- they're 6-2 at home, but losses to Oregon State/Boston U are red flags. Notre Dame has lost its best scorer for year; they've lost last two games since home upset versus Duke. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-5 versus spread.
•Central Florida is 4-1 versus teams ranked outside top 200, with wins all by 15+ points; they lost at FAU. UCF is 1-3 in true road games, losing by 23 at UConn Saturday- they're shooting 59.4% from line, as a team, not good. Rutgers beat Temple at home, then losing games at Louisville and Cincinnati. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 against spread.
•Buffalo won its last six games with Toledo, winning last two visits to Savage Hall by 7-6 points; Bulls won seven of last nine games, winning first couple MAC games by 21-10 points, but both were at home. Buffalo is 1-2 in true road games, winning at Drexel, losing at Texas A&M/Niagara. MAC single digit home favorites are 2-5 versus spread. Rockets are 7-0 at home, but their eFG% defense is in bottom 30 in country.
•Saint Louis won three of last four games with St Bonaventure, winning last two visits to Chaifetz Arena by 2-24 points; Billikens are 14-2, with only losses to top 20 teams- they won first two league games by 1-8 points, both on road. Bonnies won four of last five games, losing by 5 at UMass Saturday in game they led by 13 with 9:06 left. Underdogs are 5-1 versus spread in A-13 games where spread was 5+ points.
•Miami won three of last four games with Florida State, after losing 11 of previous 12 series games; Hurricanes allowed 55.3 ppg in 1-2 ACC start, but scored only 55.7- they're 3-3 versus top 100 teams, but lost three home games already. ACC road teams are 5-1 versus spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. FSU won six of last seven games; all four of its losses are versus top 40 teams- their eFG% defense is #2 in country.
•Baylor won nine of last 11 games with Texas Tech, winning last four in Lubbock by 18-12-13-24 points; Bears won six of last seven games, but lost by 15 at Iowa State in only true road game this year. Texas Tech is 0-8 versus top 100 teams, losing last two by three points each; Red Raiders lost five of last six games, three of last four at home. Big X home dogs are 3-4-1 versus spread.
•Ole Miss gets Henderson (suspension) back here after loss to Mississippi State Saturday; their last five games (2-3) were all decided by 5 or less points. Rebels won six of last seven games with LSU, winning three in row here, by 13-6-24 points. LSU is 2-1 in true road games, with three games won by total of seven points. SEC underdogs are 7-1-1 versus spread in games with spread of 7 or less points.
•New Mexico won four of last five games with UNLV, beating Rebels in last two MWC tourneys; UNLV lost last two visits here by 20-5- they lost last two games at home to Nevada/Air Force, haven't played in last week since. Lobos won last five games, winning road games at San Jose, Wyoming by total of seven points. MWC home favorites are 2-7 versus the spread so far this season.
•Washington won four of last five games with California, winning last two here by 11-15 points, but Golden Bears are 3-0 in Pac-12, winning three road games by 7-13-5 points. Cal is 8-0 at home, but #81 Cal-Irvine was best team they've hosted. Huskies are 3-1 in league, with only loss by nine at #1 Arizona; they took advantage of Dinwiddie's injury to pull away versus Colorado in last game. Pac-12 home favorites are 5-6 versus spread.
•Illinois lost last two games after a 13-2 start; they've lost eight of nine versus Purdue, losing three of last four played here. Illini's loss to Northwestern last game was ugly- Illini shot 28.1%, got to line only six times. Boilers split pair of 3-point decisions in first two road games, winning at West Virginia, losing at Minnesota. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 1-6 against the spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- N ILLINOIS is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 58.2, OPPONENT 63.1.
-- BOWLING GREEN is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 60.8, OPPONENT 56.9.
-- RHODE ISLAND is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was RHODE ISLAND 30.4, OPPONENT 29.1.
-- S FLORIDA is 18-1 UNDER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog or pick versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 23.3, OPPONENT 27.0.
-- TONY SHAVER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots as the coach of WM & MARY.
The average score was SHAVER 69.1, OPPONENT 62.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NORTHWESTERN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 60.2, OPPONENT 74.7.
-- ALABAMA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 61.1, OPPONENT 59.1.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 0-9 (-9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 21.0, OPPONENT 35.4.
-- HOFSTRA is 13-0 OVER (+13.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOFSTRA 34.8, OPPONENT 31.9.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 66.3, OPPONENT 68.5.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (UNLV) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a road win.
(57-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.4%, +46.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -273.8
The average score in these games was: Team 71.5, Opponent 63.1 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-1, +29.4 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (185-42, +67.9 units).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (TENNESSEE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(39-13 since 1997.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (4-51)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 15.9
The average score in these games was: Team 60.3, Opponent 72.8 (Average point differential = -12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NOTRE DAME) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent.
(38-6 since 1997.) (86.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.5
The average score in these games was: Team 68.2, Opponent 66.9 (Total points scored = 135)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
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Wednesday's Match-ups
#725 MASSACHUSETTS @ #726 GEORGE MASON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, SNY, MASN - Line: Massachusetts -4.5, Total: N/A) - Every team faces a stretch of road games like the one No.15 Massachusetts will begin Wednesday at George Mason, but only the good teams return better for it. The Minutemen will play six games - five on the road - over a span of 18 days, including a game at Richmond and road rematches against St. Bonaventure and Saint Joseph's. "We'll know what we're made of - totally made of - when we get back from that big long road trip," coach Derek Kellogg told reporters after his team rallied to beat St. Bonaventure on Saturday. "It's going to really test us now. These guys are going to see packed houses and teams that are coming for you. Three in a row is tough."
The Patriots kicked off their inaugural season in the Atlantic 10 Conference with losses to Virginia Commonwealth and Saint Joseph's and are meeting the Minutemen for the first time. The non-conference schedule for Paul Hewitt's team included games with Rhode Island, who they will play a conference game against Saturday, Oklahoma and No. 10 Iowa State. Senior Byron Allen and Sherrod Wright lead the way with 14.4 and 13.3 points per game, respectively, for a team that averages 66.6 points and 15 turnovers while shooting 42.9 percent.
•ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (14-1 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-0 Atlantic-10): Four solid, if not spectacular, wins have followed since the Minutemen last played away from home in a loss to Florida State at Sunrise, Fla. Kellogg's team seemed to change during and after the loss, from a fast-paced group that scored 83.9 points per game over its first 10 games to one that has averaged 67.2 in its last five games. Chaz Williams is still the most consistent performer with 15.4 points and 7.5 assists per game, while Cady Lalanne has had just two double-doubles in the last seven games after posting five in the first seven contests.
•ABOUT GEORGE MASON (7-9 SU, 4-9-0 ATS, 0-2 Atlantic-10): After playing sporadically over the season's first nine games, redshirt freshman Jalen Jenkins is beginning to attract some attention for the Patriots. After notching a career-high 12 rebounds against Virginia Commonwealth, the forward posted career-bests with 33 minutes and 20 points against Saint Joseph's. "I feel more comfortable on the court, especially from the beginning of the year," Jenkins told reporters. "I'm adjusting to the pace. The redshirt year was good for me because I got to sit back and watch and I realized what major college basketball is like and how hard you have to compete for a whole game."
•PREGAME NOTES: Maxie Esho has scored in double figures off the bench in six of the last eight games for the Minutemen.... Lalanne is tied for 51st in the nation with nine rebounds per game and remains the Minutemen's second-leading scorer with an average of 13.3 points.... The 6-7, 240-pound Jenkins was named the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Week after averaging 15 points and 9.5 rebounds to go with six steals in two games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the spread 498 times, while GEORGE MASON covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS won the game straight up 634 times, while GEORGE MASON won 332 times. In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the first half line 512 times, while GEORGE MASON covered the first half line 488 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
This marks the first-ever meeting on the hardwood between these newly- acquainted conference rivals.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MASS is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--MASS is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in MASS last 5 road games.
--GMU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--GMU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 7-3 in GMU last 10 overall.
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#757 MICHIGAN ST @ #758 NORTHWESTERN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Michigan State 10.5, Total: 126) - Michigan State is off to a 4-0 start in Big Ten play but it hasn’t been easy, with a pair of overtime wins at home in the last two games keeping the fourth-ranked Spartans undefeated. They will put that record on the line again Wednesday at Northwestern. The Wildcats ended a four-game losing streak with an impressive defensive effort against Illinois on Sunday and will need to figure out a way to slow Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and company.
Northwestern allowed an average of 81 points in its first three Big Ten games, culminating in a 93-67 drubbing at Iowa on Thursday, but held the Illini to 28.1 percent from the floor in a 49-43 triumph Sunday. Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring offense and put up at least 72 points in each of its first four conference games. The Spartans have four players averaging double figures including Payne (16.2 points), who missed the 87-75 overtime triumph against Minnesota on Saturday with a sprained right foot and is questionable for Wednesday.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (15-1 SU, 8-5-2 ATS, 4-0 Big Ten): The Spartans have won eight straight overall and have yet to lose on the road, where they will play their next two games. Payne came through a series of tests without any problems but is still experiencing swelling. “There’s no stress fracture,” coach Tom Izzo told reporters. “We did MRI’s, we did x-rays, we are going to do a few more things.” Izzo also expressed concern over forward Branden Dawson, who went for six points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes against the Golden Gophers. “There’s something wrong with Branden, there’s no question about it,” Izzo said. “There’s something bothering him, he hasn’t been that way in a month.”
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (8-9 SU, 5-11-0 ATS, 1-3 Big Ten): The Wildcats are one of the lowest-scoring teams in all of Division I at an average of 63.7 points and were crushed by an average of 25.3 points in their first three Big Ten contests. Northwestern lacks the size on the interior to take advantage of the issues Michigan State faces with Payne and Dawson, as swingman Drew Crawford leads the team in rebounding at an average of seven and the Wildcats do their best work offensively with Crawford, JerShon Cobb and Drew Sobolewski around the perimeter. Sobolewski missed the Illinois win with concussion symptoms and is questionable for Wednesday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State leads the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (40) led by Keith Appling (48.3 percent).... The Spartans beat the Wildcats at home 71-61 last season but lost at Northwestern 81-74 on Jan. 14, in 2012.... Harris scored 19 points against Minnesota but was just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc.... Northwestern has shot less than 40 percent in six straight and ranks last in the conference at 40.5 percent for the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 543 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 808 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 173 times. In 1000 simulated games, 814 games went over the total, while 171 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 526 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 777 games went over first half total, while 223 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 14-13 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 24-3 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 14-13 versus the first half line when playing against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Spartans are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spartans are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Northwestern.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Northwestern.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 7-1 in MSU last 8 road games.
--Under is 7-3 in MSU last 10 vs. Big Ten.
--NW is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--NW is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 7-2 in NW last 9 home games.
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#763 TCU @ #764 OKLAHOMA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Oklahoma State -21, Total: N/A) - Two teams on opposite ends of the Big 12 spectrum meet when Texas Christian visits No. 8 Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. The Cowboys have their eyes on a conference title and more behind all-world play from guards Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, who rank third and sixth respectively in the league in scoring. Smart’s contributions go beyond the stat line though, as Cowboys coach Travis Ford told The Oklahoman, “He's a very vocal leader, but then he's leading by example, and he's making all those little plays, whether it be an assist or a steal or big rebounds.”
Trent Johnson’s Horned Frogs have far more questions than answers in year two in the Big 12. The team ranks in the bottom third nationally in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage and is still in search of its first conference win this season after just two last season. Johnson told TCU360, “It’s frustrating for me (and) for the kids — obviously, this league is what it is, it’s without a question the best league in the country."
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-6 SU, 5-5-0 ATS, 0-3 Big 12): Season-ending injuries to Aaron Durley and Devonta Abron in the preseason tempered hopes in Fort Worth, but point guard Kyan Anderson has been a bright spot for Johnson thus far. The 5-11 junior ranks 10th in the Big 12 in scoring at 15.6 points and fifth in assists at five per game. If 6-6 freshman Brandon Parrish can improve upon a 42.6 field-goal percentage, it will give Anderson another option to find inside, and perhaps give the Horned Frogs the offensive spark they need.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (14-2 SU, 6-6-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): The Cowboys’ scoring foursome of Smart, Brown, Le’Bryan Nash and Phil Forte III has proven unstoppable when it’s clicking. Oklahoma State enters the contest ranked 12th nationally in scoring offense at 85 points per game and 14th in field goal percentage at 49.1 percent. It all runs through Smart, who Johnson called “without a question, the best player in the country, in my mind,” to TCU360.
•PREGAME NOTES: TCU is 2-19 in conference games since joining the league and 1-6 against ranked conference opponents.... Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in scoring margin at plus-19.5 points, while TCU is last at plus-0.3.... TCU is one of two teams in the Big 12 that is winless in conference play.... Oklahoma State is 19-2 all-time versus TCU. The Horned Frogs are facing its third straight ranked opponent and second in the top 10 after Saturday's loss to then-No. 7 Baylor.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 494 times, while TCU covered the spread 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 959 times, while TCU won 34 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 548 times, while OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA ST is 3-3 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against TCU since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TCU is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs. Big 12.
--TCU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--Over is 7-2-1 in TCU last 10 road games.
--OKST is 48-23-4 ATS in their last 75 home games.
--Over is 4-1 in OKST last 5 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in OKST last 8 vs. Big 12.
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#783 BAYLOR @ #784 TEXAS TECH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Baylor -3.5, Total: 137) - No. 13 Baylor and its high-scoring bench will look to continue its in-state dominance when the Bears visit Texas Tech on Wednesday. The Bears are 19-1 against in-state opponents since the start of the 2011-12 season, including four straight wins against Texas Tech. The deep Bears are getting 32.1 points off the bench, 15 more than their opponents' benches are producing.
Senior guard Brady Heslip leads the Bears' reserves with 11.5 points and 49 percent 3-point shooting. "As soon as the jump ball starts, we're just waiting for coach (Scott Drew) to say 'Get in there,'" Heslip told the Waco Tribune-Herald. "It's a role that coach wanted me to play, so I just had to approach it with the right mindset and be aggressive when I come in. I'm just trying to embrace it." Jaye Crockett continues to lead the Red Raiders - who are looking to snap a 34-game losing streak to ranked opponents - by scoring in double figures in 14 of his last 15 contests.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (13-2 SU, 4-5-0 ATS, 1-1 Big 12): Taurean Prince (8.3 points) and Rico Gathers (7.7 points and 7.9 rebounds) have also been strong off the bench. Forward Cory Jefferson leads the Bears with 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and center Isaiah Austin adds 10.7 points and 46 blocks. Jefferson has scored in double figures in 20 of his last 22 games and is tied for the Big 12 lead with six double-doubles.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (8-8 SU, 7-6-0 ATS, 0-3 Big 12): Crockett leads the Red Raiders with 14.4 points per game on a league-best 57.9 percent shooting. He's averaging 17 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Jordan Tolbert adds 12.4 points on 59.5 percent shooting (but doesn't have enough field goals per game to qualify for the conference shooting lead) while Robert Turner chips in 9.7 points and a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor has started 13-2 or better in five of the last seven seasons.... The Bears are 8-0 this season when scoring 80-plus points.... Texas Tech leads the all-time series 76-50 but Baylor has dominated the series against Texas Tech in recent years. The Bears have won four straight and 12 of the previous 15 meetings. They are 5-1 in Lubbock since 2008, winning by an average of 18.0 points.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the spread 607 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 393 times. *EDGE against the spread =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR won the game straight up 502 times, while TEXAS TECH won 467 times. In 1000 simulated games, 769 games went over the total, while 207 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 548 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, 726 games went over first half total, while 237 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 18-13 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 17-16 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Texas Tech.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-1 in BAY last 5 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 15-6 in BAY last 21 road games.
--TTU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in TTU last 11 overall.
--Over is 7-2-1 in TTU last 10 home games.
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#795 FRESNO ST @ #796 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: San Diego State -14, Total: N/A) - No. 11 San Diego State carries a 13-game winning streak into Wednesday’s home game against Fresno State, which is slowly making progress under third-year coach Rodney Terry. While the Bulldogs have lost three of their first four games in Mountain West play, the Aztecs are climbing up the national rankings behind a stifling defense. San Diego State boasts the nation’s top field goal defense at 35.7 percent and should improve on that figure against one of the league’s worst shooting teams.
Fresno State could take a lesson from San Diego State, which has reinvented itself under 15th-year coach Steve Fisher and reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four years. The Bulldogs lack the size to be a factor in this year’s conference race and remain mired in a lengthy rebuilding project while seeking their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. Fresno State has struggled on the boards without 6-9 forward Braeden Anderson - out for the season after a September auto accident - and ranks last in the league with a minus-3.8 rebounding margin.
•ABOUT FRESNO STATE (8-9 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 1-3 Mountain West): Sophomore guard Marvelle Harris has given the Bulldogs hope for the future while leading the team in scoring (15.6) and minutes (34.6), and serving as the team’s second-best rebounder (5.2). “The kid is coming out playing like a monster,” senior guard Tyler Johnson told the Fresno Bee. “He doesn’t look like a young kid when he’s out there.” Johnson, who is 21 points away from becoming the 30th player to score 1,000 points in program history, averages 14.5 points and scored 14 in last season’s 75-53 loss to the Aztecs.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (14-1 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 3-0 Mountain West): The Aztecs have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 66 points or less, but they’re also dangerous on the offensive end. Forward Winston Shepard is averaging 15.2 points and 4.7 rebounds over his last six games, and freshman Matt Shrigley broke out of a mini-slump by scoring 13 points in Sunday’s 79-72 win at Air Force. Guard Xavier Thames averages a team-high 16.2 points while shooting 47 percent from 3-point range for the Aztecs, whose only loss came against top-ranked Arizona on Nov. 14.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Bulldogs have lost six consecutive road games by an average of 13.3 points since opening with a 98-97 overtime win at UC-Irvine.... San Diego State leads the all-time series 56-48, including six straight wins.... Fresno State has dropped 12 straight against ranked opponents since a 58-52 victory over then-No. 14 Oklahoma State on Feb. 10, 2002.... SDSU has won 37 straight games against teams from the state of California, dating back to Dec. 2, 2009.... The Aztecs have won 106 straight games when leading with five minutes to play.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 498 times, while FRESNO ST covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 873 times, while FRESNO ST won 110 times. In 1000 simulated games, FRESNO ST covered the first half line 530 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 423 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 8-2 against the spread versus FRESNO ST since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 6-6 straight up against FRESNO ST since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against FRESNO ST since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--FRES is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wed. games.
--FRES is 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 road games.
--Under is 6-2 in FRES last 8 Wed. games.
--SDSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Mountain West.
--Under is 7-1 in SDSU last 8 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in SDSU last 8 Wed. games.
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 1/15/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Wednesday's Notebook
•UMass is 14-1, winning last four games, all by 8 or less points- in their last game, they nipped St. Bonaventure 73-68 after being down 13 with 9:06 left. The Minutemen won both its true road games by 12, at Eastern Michigan/Ohio. George Mason lost three in row, seven of last nine games; three of their last four losses were by 5 or less points. A-13 favorites are 6-1 against spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.
•Clemson is coming off huge win over Duke; Tigers are 3-5 in last eight games with Virginia Tech, losing last three visits to Blacksburg by 11-2-8 points. Clemson is 1-2 in true road games, with three games decided by total of 10 points- they lost at Arkansas/Auburn. Hokies are 1-4 in last five games, losing last two home games by 20-3. ACC home underdogs are 4-3 if getting less than six points.
•Georgetown won nine of last eleven games, is 3-1 in Big East, but they played lower part of league so far; Hoyas are 1-2 in true its road games, getting waxed at Kansas/Providence, winning in overtime at Butler. Xavier is 3-1 in league, 3-0 at home; they lost last game by 6 at Creighton, a solid showing. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-1 versus spread.
•Maryland got crushed 85-61 on national TV Sunday by Florida State, with an ESPN analyst ripping coach Mark Turgeon. Terrapins split first four ACC games, but lost last two by 20-24- they're 6-2 at home, but losses to Oregon State/Boston U are red flags. Notre Dame has lost its best scorer for year; they've lost last two games since home upset versus Duke. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-5 versus spread.
•Central Florida is 4-1 versus teams ranked outside top 200, with wins all by 15+ points; they lost at FAU. UCF is 1-3 in true road games, losing by 23 at UConn Saturday- they're shooting 59.4% from line, as a team, not good. Rutgers beat Temple at home, then losing games at Louisville and Cincinnati. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 against spread.
•Buffalo won its last six games with Toledo, winning last two visits to Savage Hall by 7-6 points; Bulls won seven of last nine games, winning first couple MAC games by 21-10 points, but both were at home. Buffalo is 1-2 in true road games, winning at Drexel, losing at Texas A&M/Niagara. MAC single digit home favorites are 2-5 versus spread. Rockets are 7-0 at home, but their eFG% defense is in bottom 30 in country.
•Saint Louis won three of last four games with St Bonaventure, winning last two visits to Chaifetz Arena by 2-24 points; Billikens are 14-2, with only losses to top 20 teams- they won first two league games by 1-8 points, both on road. Bonnies won four of last five games, losing by 5 at UMass Saturday in game they led by 13 with 9:06 left. Underdogs are 5-1 versus spread in A-13 games where spread was 5+ points.
•Miami won three of last four games with Florida State, after losing 11 of previous 12 series games; Hurricanes allowed 55.3 ppg in 1-2 ACC start, but scored only 55.7- they're 3-3 versus top 100 teams, but lost three home games already. ACC road teams are 5-1 versus spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. FSU won six of last seven games; all four of its losses are versus top 40 teams- their eFG% defense is #2 in country.
•Baylor won nine of last 11 games with Texas Tech, winning last four in Lubbock by 18-12-13-24 points; Bears won six of last seven games, but lost by 15 at Iowa State in only true road game this year. Texas Tech is 0-8 versus top 100 teams, losing last two by three points each; Red Raiders lost five of last six games, three of last four at home. Big X home dogs are 3-4-1 versus spread.
•Ole Miss gets Henderson (suspension) back here after loss to Mississippi State Saturday; their last five games (2-3) were all decided by 5 or less points. Rebels won six of last seven games with LSU, winning three in row here, by 13-6-24 points. LSU is 2-1 in true road games, with three games won by total of seven points. SEC underdogs are 7-1-1 versus spread in games with spread of 7 or less points.
•New Mexico won four of last five games with UNLV, beating Rebels in last two MWC tourneys; UNLV lost last two visits here by 20-5- they lost last two games at home to Nevada/Air Force, haven't played in last week since. Lobos won last five games, winning road games at San Jose, Wyoming by total of seven points. MWC home favorites are 2-7 versus the spread so far this season.
•Washington won four of last five games with California, winning last two here by 11-15 points, but Golden Bears are 3-0 in Pac-12, winning three road games by 7-13-5 points. Cal is 8-0 at home, but #81 Cal-Irvine was best team they've hosted. Huskies are 3-1 in league, with only loss by nine at #1 Arizona; they took advantage of Dinwiddie's injury to pull away versus Colorado in last game. Pac-12 home favorites are 5-6 versus spread.
•Illinois lost last two games after a 13-2 start; they've lost eight of nine versus Purdue, losing three of last four played here. Illini's loss to Northwestern last game was ugly- Illini shot 28.1%, got to line only six times. Boilers split pair of 3-point decisions in first two road games, winning at West Virginia, losing at Minnesota. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 1-6 against the spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- N ILLINOIS is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 58.2, OPPONENT 63.1.
-- BOWLING GREEN is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 60.8, OPPONENT 56.9.
-- RHODE ISLAND is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was RHODE ISLAND 30.4, OPPONENT 29.1.
-- S FLORIDA is 18-1 UNDER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog or pick versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 23.3, OPPONENT 27.0.
-- TONY SHAVER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots as the coach of WM & MARY.
The average score was SHAVER 69.1, OPPONENT 62.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NORTHWESTERN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 60.2, OPPONENT 74.7.
-- ALABAMA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 61.1, OPPONENT 59.1.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 0-9 (-9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 21.0, OPPONENT 35.4.
-- HOFSTRA is 13-0 OVER (+13.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOFSTRA 34.8, OPPONENT 31.9.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 66.3, OPPONENT 68.5.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (UNLV) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a road win.
(57-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.4%, +46.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -273.8
The average score in these games was: Team 71.5, Opponent 63.1 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-1, +29.4 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (185-42, +67.9 units).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (TENNESSEE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(39-13 since 1997.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (4-51)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 15.9
The average score in these games was: Team 60.3, Opponent 72.8 (Average point differential = -12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NOTRE DAME) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent.
(38-6 since 1997.) (86.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.5
The average score in these games was: Team 68.2, Opponent 66.9 (Total points scored = 135)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
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Wednesday's Match-ups
#725 MASSACHUSETTS @ #726 GEORGE MASON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, SNY, MASN - Line: Massachusetts -4.5, Total: N/A) - Every team faces a stretch of road games like the one No.15 Massachusetts will begin Wednesday at George Mason, but only the good teams return better for it. The Minutemen will play six games - five on the road - over a span of 18 days, including a game at Richmond and road rematches against St. Bonaventure and Saint Joseph's. "We'll know what we're made of - totally made of - when we get back from that big long road trip," coach Derek Kellogg told reporters after his team rallied to beat St. Bonaventure on Saturday. "It's going to really test us now. These guys are going to see packed houses and teams that are coming for you. Three in a row is tough."
The Patriots kicked off their inaugural season in the Atlantic 10 Conference with losses to Virginia Commonwealth and Saint Joseph's and are meeting the Minutemen for the first time. The non-conference schedule for Paul Hewitt's team included games with Rhode Island, who they will play a conference game against Saturday, Oklahoma and No. 10 Iowa State. Senior Byron Allen and Sherrod Wright lead the way with 14.4 and 13.3 points per game, respectively, for a team that averages 66.6 points and 15 turnovers while shooting 42.9 percent.
•ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (14-1 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 2-0 Atlantic-10): Four solid, if not spectacular, wins have followed since the Minutemen last played away from home in a loss to Florida State at Sunrise, Fla. Kellogg's team seemed to change during and after the loss, from a fast-paced group that scored 83.9 points per game over its first 10 games to one that has averaged 67.2 in its last five games. Chaz Williams is still the most consistent performer with 15.4 points and 7.5 assists per game, while Cady Lalanne has had just two double-doubles in the last seven games after posting five in the first seven contests.
•ABOUT GEORGE MASON (7-9 SU, 4-9-0 ATS, 0-2 Atlantic-10): After playing sporadically over the season's first nine games, redshirt freshman Jalen Jenkins is beginning to attract some attention for the Patriots. After notching a career-high 12 rebounds against Virginia Commonwealth, the forward posted career-bests with 33 minutes and 20 points against Saint Joseph's. "I feel more comfortable on the court, especially from the beginning of the year," Jenkins told reporters. "I'm adjusting to the pace. The redshirt year was good for me because I got to sit back and watch and I realized what major college basketball is like and how hard you have to compete for a whole game."
•PREGAME NOTES: Maxie Esho has scored in double figures off the bench in six of the last eight games for the Minutemen.... Lalanne is tied for 51st in the nation with nine rebounds per game and remains the Minutemen's second-leading scorer with an average of 13.3 points.... The 6-7, 240-pound Jenkins was named the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Week after averaging 15 points and 9.5 rebounds to go with six steals in two games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the spread 498 times, while GEORGE MASON covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS won the game straight up 634 times, while GEORGE MASON won 332 times. In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the first half line 512 times, while GEORGE MASON covered the first half line 488 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
This marks the first-ever meeting on the hardwood between these newly- acquainted conference rivals.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MASS is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--MASS is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in MASS last 5 road games.
--GMU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--GMU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 7-3 in GMU last 10 overall.
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#757 MICHIGAN ST @ #758 NORTHWESTERN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Michigan State 10.5, Total: 126) - Michigan State is off to a 4-0 start in Big Ten play but it hasn’t been easy, with a pair of overtime wins at home in the last two games keeping the fourth-ranked Spartans undefeated. They will put that record on the line again Wednesday at Northwestern. The Wildcats ended a four-game losing streak with an impressive defensive effort against Illinois on Sunday and will need to figure out a way to slow Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and company.
Northwestern allowed an average of 81 points in its first three Big Ten games, culminating in a 93-67 drubbing at Iowa on Thursday, but held the Illini to 28.1 percent from the floor in a 49-43 triumph Sunday. Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring offense and put up at least 72 points in each of its first four conference games. The Spartans have four players averaging double figures including Payne (16.2 points), who missed the 87-75 overtime triumph against Minnesota on Saturday with a sprained right foot and is questionable for Wednesday.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (15-1 SU, 8-5-2 ATS, 4-0 Big Ten): The Spartans have won eight straight overall and have yet to lose on the road, where they will play their next two games. Payne came through a series of tests without any problems but is still experiencing swelling. “There’s no stress fracture,” coach Tom Izzo told reporters. “We did MRI’s, we did x-rays, we are going to do a few more things.” Izzo also expressed concern over forward Branden Dawson, who went for six points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes against the Golden Gophers. “There’s something wrong with Branden, there’s no question about it,” Izzo said. “There’s something bothering him, he hasn’t been that way in a month.”
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (8-9 SU, 5-11-0 ATS, 1-3 Big Ten): The Wildcats are one of the lowest-scoring teams in all of Division I at an average of 63.7 points and were crushed by an average of 25.3 points in their first three Big Ten contests. Northwestern lacks the size on the interior to take advantage of the issues Michigan State faces with Payne and Dawson, as swingman Drew Crawford leads the team in rebounding at an average of seven and the Wildcats do their best work offensively with Crawford, JerShon Cobb and Drew Sobolewski around the perimeter. Sobolewski missed the Illinois win with concussion symptoms and is questionable for Wednesday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State leads the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (40) led by Keith Appling (48.3 percent).... The Spartans beat the Wildcats at home 71-61 last season but lost at Northwestern 81-74 on Jan. 14, in 2012.... Harris scored 19 points against Minnesota but was just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc.... Northwestern has shot less than 40 percent in six straight and ranks last in the conference at 40.5 percent for the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 543 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 808 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 173 times. In 1000 simulated games, 814 games went over the total, while 171 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 526 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 777 games went over first half total, while 223 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 14-13 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 24-3 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 14-13 versus the first half line when playing against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Spartans are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spartans are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Northwestern.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Northwestern.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 7-1 in MSU last 8 road games.
--Under is 7-3 in MSU last 10 vs. Big Ten.
--NW is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--NW is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 7-2 in NW last 9 home games.
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#763 TCU @ #764 OKLAHOMA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Oklahoma State -21, Total: N/A) - Two teams on opposite ends of the Big 12 spectrum meet when Texas Christian visits No. 8 Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. The Cowboys have their eyes on a conference title and more behind all-world play from guards Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, who rank third and sixth respectively in the league in scoring. Smart’s contributions go beyond the stat line though, as Cowboys coach Travis Ford told The Oklahoman, “He's a very vocal leader, but then he's leading by example, and he's making all those little plays, whether it be an assist or a steal or big rebounds.”
Trent Johnson’s Horned Frogs have far more questions than answers in year two in the Big 12. The team ranks in the bottom third nationally in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage and is still in search of its first conference win this season after just two last season. Johnson told TCU360, “It’s frustrating for me (and) for the kids — obviously, this league is what it is, it’s without a question the best league in the country."
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-6 SU, 5-5-0 ATS, 0-3 Big 12): Season-ending injuries to Aaron Durley and Devonta Abron in the preseason tempered hopes in Fort Worth, but point guard Kyan Anderson has been a bright spot for Johnson thus far. The 5-11 junior ranks 10th in the Big 12 in scoring at 15.6 points and fifth in assists at five per game. If 6-6 freshman Brandon Parrish can improve upon a 42.6 field-goal percentage, it will give Anderson another option to find inside, and perhaps give the Horned Frogs the offensive spark they need.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (14-2 SU, 6-6-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): The Cowboys’ scoring foursome of Smart, Brown, Le’Bryan Nash and Phil Forte III has proven unstoppable when it’s clicking. Oklahoma State enters the contest ranked 12th nationally in scoring offense at 85 points per game and 14th in field goal percentage at 49.1 percent. It all runs through Smart, who Johnson called “without a question, the best player in the country, in my mind,” to TCU360.
•PREGAME NOTES: TCU is 2-19 in conference games since joining the league and 1-6 against ranked conference opponents.... Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in scoring margin at plus-19.5 points, while TCU is last at plus-0.3.... TCU is one of two teams in the Big 12 that is winless in conference play.... Oklahoma State is 19-2 all-time versus TCU. The Horned Frogs are facing its third straight ranked opponent and second in the top 10 after Saturday's loss to then-No. 7 Baylor.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 494 times, while TCU covered the spread 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 959 times, while TCU won 34 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 548 times, while OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA ST is 3-3 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against TCU since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TCU is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs. Big 12.
--TCU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--Over is 7-2-1 in TCU last 10 road games.
--OKST is 48-23-4 ATS in their last 75 home games.
--Over is 4-1 in OKST last 5 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in OKST last 8 vs. Big 12.
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#783 BAYLOR @ #784 TEXAS TECH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Baylor -3.5, Total: 137) - No. 13 Baylor and its high-scoring bench will look to continue its in-state dominance when the Bears visit Texas Tech on Wednesday. The Bears are 19-1 against in-state opponents since the start of the 2011-12 season, including four straight wins against Texas Tech. The deep Bears are getting 32.1 points off the bench, 15 more than their opponents' benches are producing.
Senior guard Brady Heslip leads the Bears' reserves with 11.5 points and 49 percent 3-point shooting. "As soon as the jump ball starts, we're just waiting for coach (Scott Drew) to say 'Get in there,'" Heslip told the Waco Tribune-Herald. "It's a role that coach wanted me to play, so I just had to approach it with the right mindset and be aggressive when I come in. I'm just trying to embrace it." Jaye Crockett continues to lead the Red Raiders - who are looking to snap a 34-game losing streak to ranked opponents - by scoring in double figures in 14 of his last 15 contests.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (13-2 SU, 4-5-0 ATS, 1-1 Big 12): Taurean Prince (8.3 points) and Rico Gathers (7.7 points and 7.9 rebounds) have also been strong off the bench. Forward Cory Jefferson leads the Bears with 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and center Isaiah Austin adds 10.7 points and 46 blocks. Jefferson has scored in double figures in 20 of his last 22 games and is tied for the Big 12 lead with six double-doubles.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (8-8 SU, 7-6-0 ATS, 0-3 Big 12): Crockett leads the Red Raiders with 14.4 points per game on a league-best 57.9 percent shooting. He's averaging 17 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Jordan Tolbert adds 12.4 points on 59.5 percent shooting (but doesn't have enough field goals per game to qualify for the conference shooting lead) while Robert Turner chips in 9.7 points and a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor has started 13-2 or better in five of the last seven seasons.... The Bears are 8-0 this season when scoring 80-plus points.... Texas Tech leads the all-time series 76-50 but Baylor has dominated the series against Texas Tech in recent years. The Bears have won four straight and 12 of the previous 15 meetings. They are 5-1 in Lubbock since 2008, winning by an average of 18.0 points.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the spread 607 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 393 times. *EDGE against the spread =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR won the game straight up 502 times, while TEXAS TECH won 467 times. In 1000 simulated games, 769 games went over the total, while 207 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 548 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS TECH. In 1000 simulated games, 726 games went over first half total, while 237 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 18-13 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 17-16 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS TECH is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Texas Tech.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-1 in BAY last 5 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 15-6 in BAY last 21 road games.
--TTU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in TTU last 11 overall.
--Over is 7-2-1 in TTU last 10 home games.
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#795 FRESNO ST @ #796 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: San Diego State -14, Total: N/A) - No. 11 San Diego State carries a 13-game winning streak into Wednesday’s home game against Fresno State, which is slowly making progress under third-year coach Rodney Terry. While the Bulldogs have lost three of their first four games in Mountain West play, the Aztecs are climbing up the national rankings behind a stifling defense. San Diego State boasts the nation’s top field goal defense at 35.7 percent and should improve on that figure against one of the league’s worst shooting teams.
Fresno State could take a lesson from San Diego State, which has reinvented itself under 15th-year coach Steve Fisher and reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four years. The Bulldogs lack the size to be a factor in this year’s conference race and remain mired in a lengthy rebuilding project while seeking their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. Fresno State has struggled on the boards without 6-9 forward Braeden Anderson - out for the season after a September auto accident - and ranks last in the league with a minus-3.8 rebounding margin.
•ABOUT FRESNO STATE (8-9 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 1-3 Mountain West): Sophomore guard Marvelle Harris has given the Bulldogs hope for the future while leading the team in scoring (15.6) and minutes (34.6), and serving as the team’s second-best rebounder (5.2). “The kid is coming out playing like a monster,” senior guard Tyler Johnson told the Fresno Bee. “He doesn’t look like a young kid when he’s out there.” Johnson, who is 21 points away from becoming the 30th player to score 1,000 points in program history, averages 14.5 points and scored 14 in last season’s 75-53 loss to the Aztecs.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (14-1 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 3-0 Mountain West): The Aztecs have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 66 points or less, but they’re also dangerous on the offensive end. Forward Winston Shepard is averaging 15.2 points and 4.7 rebounds over his last six games, and freshman Matt Shrigley broke out of a mini-slump by scoring 13 points in Sunday’s 79-72 win at Air Force. Guard Xavier Thames averages a team-high 16.2 points while shooting 47 percent from 3-point range for the Aztecs, whose only loss came against top-ranked Arizona on Nov. 14.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Bulldogs have lost six consecutive road games by an average of 13.3 points since opening with a 98-97 overtime win at UC-Irvine.... San Diego State leads the all-time series 56-48, including six straight wins.... Fresno State has dropped 12 straight against ranked opponents since a 58-52 victory over then-No. 14 Oklahoma State on Feb. 10, 2002.... SDSU has won 37 straight games against teams from the state of California, dating back to Dec. 2, 2009.... The Aztecs have won 106 straight games when leading with five minutes to play.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 498 times, while FRESNO ST covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 873 times, while FRESNO ST won 110 times. In 1000 simulated games, FRESNO ST covered the first half line 530 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 423 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 8-2 against the spread versus FRESNO ST since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 6-6 straight up against FRESNO ST since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against FRESNO ST since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--FRES is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wed. games.
--FRES is 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 road games.
--Under is 6-2 in FRES last 8 Wed. games.
--SDSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Mountain West.
--Under is 7-1 in SDSU last 8 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in SDSU last 8 Wed. games.
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