SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 13
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Minnesota (12-4, 9-6 ATS) at (7) Michigan State (13-3, 6-9 ATS)
The Spartans look to remain perfect in Big Ten play and continue their dominance of Minnesota when they entertain the Golden Gophers at the Breslin Events Center.
Minnesota rebounded from an ugly 19-point loss at then-No. 4 Purdue with Saturday’s 73-62 rout of Ohio State, cashing as a four-point home favorite. The Gophers have won eight of their last nine games (7-2 ATS), going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in Big Ten action. The offense has carried the load during the 8-1 run, producing at least 73 points in all eight victories (average of 87.1 points per game).
Michigan State improved to 3-0 SU and ATS in conference with Saturday’s 71-53 beat-down of Iowa as a 14-point road favorite. Like Minnesota, the Spartans are on an 8-1 run, but they’ve been doing it with defense, yielding 60 points or less in six of the nine contests. Tom Izzo’s squad has covered the spread in three straight games for the first time all year, as it had gone 1-6 ATS in its previous seven outings.
The Spartans have won six straight and 11 of the last 12 against Minnesota, going 8-4 ATS during the 12-game stretch and 4-0 ATS in the last four. Last year, Michigan State beat the Gophers three times: 70-58 as a one-point road underdog; 76-47 as an 8½-point home favorite; and 64-56 as a 7½-point chalk in the Big Ten tourney. Michigan State has defeated Minnesota 10 straight times in East Lansing, going 9-1 ATS.
Michigan State cashed as a six-point favorite in a 54-47 home win over Wisconsin a week ago, moving to 9-0 at home. However, prior to that, the Spartans had gone 2-5 ATS in their first seven games at the Breslin Center. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by seven to 12½ points, but have cashed in five of six Big Ten games.
Minnesota’s 7-2 ATS roll overall is bolstered by a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven after a SU win, but the Gophers are also in pointspread droughts of 6-13 in conference games, 2-11 on the road, 3-13 as a road ‘dog and 2-5 against winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Gophers on Wednesday, 6-1 for the Gophers against winning teams, 11-3 for Michigan State in conference games, 5-1 for Michigan State against winning squads, 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry and 3-0 in the last three Gophers-Spartans matchups at Michigan State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(16) Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) at (15) UConn (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS)
The surprising Panthers take a six-game SU winning streak to the XL Center in Hartford for a Big East battle against UConn.
Pittsburgh has been idle since Jan. 4, when it improved to 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) in conference play with a 74-71 upset win at Cincinnati as a four-point underdog. The Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in lined action during their winning streak, scoring at least 65 points in every game while holding four opponents under 60 points.
The Huskies dropped to 2-2 in Big East action with Saturday’s tough 72-69 loss at 12th-ranked Georgetown, but they covered as a five-point road underdog. UConn is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games (3-0-1 ATS in league play), and its last three losses – to Kentucky, Cincinnati and Georgetown, all away from home – were by a total of eight points. Jim Calhoun’s squad has been a little lax defensively lately, yielding 70 points or more in four of the last five games.
This has been a very competitive rivalry in recent years, with the teams splitting their last 10 battles. Last season, Pitt swept the series with a 76-68 upset win as a 2½-point road pup and a 70-60 victory as a 4½-point home favorite. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Connecticut, and the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings, including the past four in a row.
The Panthers are pointspread upticks of 4-0-1 overall, 10-4-1 in conference, 8-2 as an underdog (all on the road) and 5-0-2 against winning teams, while the Huskies are on ATS rolls of 4-0-1 overall, 25-12-1 when laying less than seven points at home, 4-0-1 against winning teams and 6-1 on Wednesday.
Pitt carries “over” trends of 5-1 on the road, 5-0 as a ‘dog (all on the road) and 22-10-1 in Big East action, while UConn is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 16-7 as a favorite of less than seven points and 7-2 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
(23) Miami, Fla. (15-1, 6-2 ATS) at Virginia Tech (12-2, 4-5 ATS)
Virginia Tech tries to bounce back from its first loss in more than six weeks while also shooting for a fourth straight victory over the Hurricanes, who bring a seven-game winning streak into Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Va., for this ACC tussle.
Miami vaulted back into the Top 25 this week after holding off Wake Forest 67-66 on Saturday, though the ‘Canes fell short of cashing as a 5½-point favorite, ending a five-game spread-covering run. The Demon Deacons became just the fourth team to tally more than 60 points against the Hurricanes, who haven’t allowed a single opponent to score more than 70 and are yielding just 58 ppg. Miami’s only blemish was a 61-60 loss to Boston College in the ACC opener on Dec. 6 as a 4½-point road underdog.
The Hokies ended non-conference play with nine straight wins (4-1 ATS in lined play), then stepped up in class Sunday by traveling to ACC foe North Carolina, and the Tar Heels rolled 78-64 as an eight-point home favorite. In addition to North Carolina (then ranked 9th), Va-Tech has faced only one other opponent that’s been ranked this year, and that was Temple, which beat the Hokies 61-50 as a 4½-point home favorite.
Virginia Tech has won three straight, five of six and seven of the last nine in this rivalry, with the SU winner covering the pointspread in every contest. Last year, the Hokies went to South Beach and scored an 88-83 overtime win as a seven-point underdog then knocked off the ‘Canes 65-47 as a three-point pup in the ACC tournament. The ‘dog has delivered four straight upsets in this series.
The Hurricanes have failed to cover in four of their last five ACC games, but they’re otherwise on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 as a ‘dog, 11-4-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 17-5-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Wednesday, but the Hokies have failed to cash in four of five as a home chalk and six of eight when laying less than seven points.
It’s been all “unders” for Miami, which is on low-scoring streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in ACC play and 5-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, Virginia Tech is on “over” stretches of 36-17-1 overall in lined play, 23-8 at home, 21-6 as a favorite, 19-7 as a home chalk, 5-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 after a non-cover. Finally, four of the last five in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA.
(12) North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) at (24) Clemson (13-3, 8-5 ATS)
North Carolina looks to knock off Clemson for the 11th straight time when this ACC rivalry gets renewed at Littlejohn Coliseum.
The Tar Heels rebounded from an embarrassing 82-79 overtime loss at Charleston as a 13½-point favorite with a 78-64 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC opener for both teams, easily cashing as an eight-point favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. North Carolina is just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in road/neutral-site games, losing both of its true roadies to Charleston and Kentucky (68-66 as a 3½-point underdog). The defending champs have scored at least 78 points in six straight games, they’ve topped 70 points in every game but the Kentucky contest, and have scored 80 or more 11 times.
Clemson dropped its conference opener at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53 as an 11½-point underdog, but came back with a strong effort Saturday in dismantling Boston College 72-56 as a nine-point home favorite. The Tigers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games (7-1 ATS), including 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at home. Their only hiccup at Littlejohn Coliseum this year was a 76-74 loss to Illinois in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a game Clemson led by 23 points in the second half. Oliver Purnell’s squad averages 81 ppg (49.7 percent shooting) and gives up 59.1 ppg (38.9 percent) on its home court.
North Carolina has won 10 in a row overall and three straight at Clemson in this rivalry, but the Heels are just 6-4 ATS during this stretch that dates to the 2003-04 season (2-1 ATS at Clemson). In last year’s lone clash in Chapel Hill, North Carolina rolled 94-70 as a 13-point favorite, their 54th straight home win over the Tigers.
The Tar Heels have cashed in 11 of their last 15 games against winning teams and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as a road underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last seven as a pup of less than seven points. But otherwise they’re in ATS ruts of 2-6 on the road, 1-4 against the ACC and 0-4 after a SU victory. Clemson is on pointspread rolls of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 6-0 as a favorite, but it has failed to cash in five of its last seven league games and five favorite as a chalk of less than seven points.
The over is on runs of 8-3 for UNC on the road, 12-2 for UNC on Wednesday, 5-2 for UNC as an underdog, 4-0 for Clemson against winning teams, 7-3 for Clemson on Wednesday and 4-0 in this rivalry. However, the under is 6-1 in the Tigers’ last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five at home and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (29-9, 16-22 ATS) at Dallas (25-12, 18-19 ATS)
The Lakers and Mavericks hook up for the third time this season, but the first time at American Airlines Center where Los Angeles caps a brief two-game, two-day Texas road trip.
L.A. went to San Antonio on Tuesday and got crushed 105-85 as a three-point underdog, losing Kobe Bryant to back spasms in the second quarter. The Lakers, who haven’t had injured All-Star forward Pau Gasol for the last five games, are 6-5 in their last 11, including losing four straight road games (0-4 ATS). For the season, Los Angeles is now just 8-6 SU and 4-10 ATS as a visitor.
The Lakers have followed up a five-game stretch in which they averaged 115.8 ppg by scoring just 91.4 ppg in the last five. Phil Jackson’s club was held under 100 points in all five contests after being held under triple digits just eight times through the first 33 games.
Dallas hasn’t played since Saturday’s 111-93 home loss to the Jazz, getting blown out as a 5½-point home favorite. The Mavs have struggled with consistency in recent weeks, going 7-5 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12. Dallas has also split its last six home games and has cashed just once in its last 12 contests at American Airlines Center.
The Mavericks went to L.A. for the second game of the season on Oct. 30 and shocked the Lakers 94-80 as a 7½-point road underdog to end a six-game slide in this rivalry. However, the Lakers got revenge in a big way Jan. 3, rolling 131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite. Dallas is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes, but Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five trips to Big D. In fact, the visitor is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, and the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine.
Los Angeles, which has been a big money-burner this season, is in ATS ruts of 6-12 overall, 4-10 on the road, 0-3 as a ‘dog this year, 3-9 against Western Conference opponents and 3-8 when playing on the second night of a back-to-back situation. In addition to going 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games, the Mavericks are in pointspread funks of 4-9 against Western Conference foes, 1-4 when facing Pacific Division squads and 0-6 when coming off three or more days of rest. On the bright side, Dallas has covered in 22 of 30 on Wednesday.
The under is 7-2 in the Lakers’ last nine against teams with a winning record, but the over is 7-3 in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams. Dallas is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 at home and 9-4 after three or more days off. The over is also 4-1 in the last five Mavericks-Lakers battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
Orlando (26-12, 20-18 ATS) at Denver (24-14, 17-20-1 ATS)
The Magic make their one and only stop of the season at the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City as they continue a four-game Western Conference road swing with a game against the Nuggets.
Orlando began its trip in Sacramento last night, using a 33-10 fourth quarter to knock off the Kings 109-88 as a four-point road favorite. Despite Tuesday’s victory, the Magic have followed an 18-5 SU run by losing four of their last six SU and ATS. They’re also 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight road games.
Denver has also been stumbling along recently, dropping seven of its last 12 overall while going 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 outings (3-6 ATS at home). During this 17-game stretch, the ‘dog is 13-3-1 ATS in Nuggets games. Most recently, the Nuggets pounded the TWolves 105-94 on Sunday, but fell short as a 14-point home favorite. George Karl’s club has won three straight at home (1-2 ATS) and is 16-3 SU at the Pepsi Center this season (but only 10-9 ATS).
The road team swept the season series between these clubs last year, with Orlando rolling 106-88 in Denver as a 1½-point underdog then losing 83-73 in Florida as a seven-point favorite. Prior to that, the home team had been on an 11-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry. Also, the favorite has gotten the cash in 12 of the last 16 series battles.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Magic’s last 10 games overall and each of their last nine on the road, and the winner is 10-2-1 ATS in Denver’s last 13 games. Also, the winner has cashed in each of the last 13 meetings between these teams.
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five Wednesday affairs, but otherwise is in ATS slides of 2-4 overall, 2-6 on the road, and 1-4 when playing on back-to-back nights. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six on Wednesday and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 against winning teams, but from there the Nuggets are on pointspread plunges of 4-12-1 overall, 1-4 at home, 2-5 against the Southeast Division and 0-6 when playing on one day of rest.
The Magic are in the midst of “under” runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference and 4-0 against winning teams, while Denver is on “under” stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-0 versus winning teams and 9-4 when playing on one day of rest. Also, these teams have stayed low in each of their last four meetings.
On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 11-1 for Orlando on Wednesday, 6-0 for the Nuggets on Wednesday and 5-2 for the Nuggets against Southeast Division opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
